中国股票型基金业绩持续性实证研究

本文采用动量检验法和回归系数法,检验了存续时间超过24个月的中国股票型基金业绩是否存在持续性.结果发现,101只样本基金的业绩在6个月存在显著的持续性.在此基础上,本文从风险收益和基金管理人能力两个角度检验了基金业绩持续性的来源,结果发现,CAPM和“三因素模型”,以及考虑了基金投资风格的管理人选股能力、择时能力及投资风格持续收益,均不能解释中国股票型基金的业绩持续性.     

我国西部大开发战略实施效果的阶段性评价与改进对策

利用统计数据,选取宏观经济水平、工业化发展进程、居民生活质量和生态发展状况等四大类指标对中国西部大开发战略实施10周年的政策效果展开系统评价。研究发现,尽管西部大开发战略促进了西部地区社会经济发展指标的全面好转,但东西部之间区域经济发展不均衡的系统格局并未改观,反而呈现进一步恶化趋势。因此提出了未来10年西部大开发战略向纵深推进的具体对策,比如增强东西部地区间产业联结与优势互补、强化西部各省域间经济发展的联动效应、西部投资应注重"点面结合、以点带面"等。     

A fresh look at the contribution of project management to organizational performance

A better understanding of organizational performance and the contribution that project management can make is the aim. The article adopts the “Competing Values Framework,” a rich framework that is well established both theoretically and empirically but is not well known in the field of project management. The framework is summarized and applied in an empirical investigation of the contribution of project management in general and project management offices (PMOs) in particular to organizational performance. The examination of 11 case studies revealed multiple concurrent and sometimes paradoxical perspectives. The criteria proposed by the framework have been further developed through the identification of a preliminary set of empirically grounded performance indicators. The empirical results contribute to a better understanding of the role of project management generally and PMOs specifically. They also demonstrate the usefulness of this framework for the study of project management's contribution to organizational performance.     

Monetary–fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus

Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects—both inter- and intra-temporal—and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior. Studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption: higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect, while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate. This paper estimates Markov-switching policy rules for the United States and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior. When the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new Keynesian model, government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized. The paper reports the model's predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's implied path for government spending under alternative monetary–fiscal policy combinations.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-war U.S.

A New Keynesian model allowing for an active monetary and passive fiscal policy (AMPF) regime and a passive monetary and active fiscal policy (PMAF) regime is estimated to fit various U.S. samples from 1955 to 2007. The results show that data in the pre-Volcker periods strongly prefer an AMPF regime, even with a prior centered in the PMAF region. The estimation, however, is not very informative about whether the Federal Reserve's reaction to inflation is greater than one in the pre-Volcker period, because much lower values can still preserve determinacy under passive fiscal policy. In addition, whether a PMAF regime can generate consumption growth following a government spending increase depends on the degree of price stickiness. An income tax cut can yield an unusual negative labor response if monetary policy aggressively stabilizes output growth.     

Superexponential long-term trends in information technology

Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable.     

The interaction effect of strategic orientations on new product performance in the high-tech industry: A nonlinear model

Innovation and market orientation are two strategic orientations or business philosophies that can guide a company in its business activities. Although the interaction effect of these two strategic orientations is conceptually recognized as a critical factor for new product's success, empirical results are mixed. This paper examines this issue in terms of innovation orientation, two types of market orientations (responsive and proactive), and new product performance. Based on a sample of 107 high-tech firms, the results of this study show that the interaction between innovation orientation and two types of market orientation yields different patterns of nonlinear responses for new product performance. Specifically, new product performance, when derived from the interaction between innovation orientation and responsive market orientation, is in the form of an inverted U, i.e., the interaction effect is contributory to firm performance until an optimal level is reached, and then the effect becomes detrimental thereafter. However, new product performance derived from innovation orientation and proactive market orientation is in the form of a U, i.e., the interaction effect is detrimental to firm performance until a threshold level is reached and then the effect becomes contributory thereafter. The different patterns of new product performance indicate that the costs and organizational learning effects of these two strategic orientation interactions are dissimilar. The paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

我国重点工业企业技术创新能力建设的问题与对策

在对我国12家重点工业企业进行实地调研的基础上,归纳出我国重点工业企业技术创新能力建设要关注的6个问题:企业创新主体地位有待进一步加强;企业核心技术创新能力的提高难以取得突破性进展;产业链创新能力的建立难以突破;国内市场需求促进企业技术创新能力面临深化问题;技术创新国际化面临严峻挑战;人才问题成为制约企业技术创新能力提升的重要瓶颈。然后,从供给导向、需求导向和创新环境建设三个方面提出政策建议。     

探索性创新、开发性创新与企业绩效的关系——基于组织结构特性调节效应的实证分析

利用251家企业样本数据,将组织结构特性作为权变调节因素纳入探索性创新和开发性创新与企业绩效关系的考察中,构建了一个调节效应分析模型,利用回归分析进行假设检验。结果显示:探索性创新和开发性创新是提高企业绩效的两种重要途径,二者平衡有助于绩效提升、不平衡有损于绩效提升;组织结构特性不同,其对两种创新方式与企业绩效的关系的调节作用不同,其中,组织分权化对探索性创新与企业绩效的关系起正向调节作用,组织正式化对开发性创新与企业绩效的关系起正向调节作用,组织联通性则没有显示出调节作用。     

福建省生物质能源政策永续发展模型建构与评价

结合生物质能源政策永续发展的目标,构建了一个由四个层次指标构成的生物质能源政策永续发展评价指标体系,以此反映生物质能源政策永续发展的本质特征、内在规律和演变趋势。福建省生物质能源政策永续发展评价结果显示:福建省生物质能源政策的整体绩效水平尚处于永续发展的起步阶段,政府在生物质能产业有效规制与激励方面应加强能源市场机制建设,努力发展绿色能源消费,这也是最优先推动的永续能源策略之一。此外,推动生物质能的教育宣传与科技研发、加大政府公共研发、强化公众参与、提高人力资本素质是未来的努力方向。