Hot money in disaggregated capital flows

We explore the possible existence and behavior of hot money in six categories of disaggregated bilateral capital flows (equity inflows, equity outflows, bond inflows, bond outflows, banking credit inflows, and banking credit outflows) for 12 emerging markets vis-à-vis the US from 1995 to 2012 and provides several new findings. First, we identify the existence of hot money in all six categories above and conclude that both gross inflows and gross outflows can be the sources of hot money. Second, hot money in equity inflows (outflows) engages in positive (negative) feedback trading regarding local stock market returns. Third, some categories of hot money have a temporary influence on local stock market returns while the others have a permanent influence, supporting the explanations of both price pressures and information advantage. Finally, local stock market returns in half of our sample countries, which have tightened capital controls during the late 2000s global financial crisis (GFC), are more affected by hot money than in the other half. Our findings confirm several popular conjectures of hot money, and endorse the use of capital controls to limit financial vulnerability in the run-up to and during the GFC.     

Subsidiary managers’ knowledge mobilizations: Unpacking emergent knowledge flows

Knowledge flows are a key source of advantage for multinational corporations (MNCs); however the nuances of knowledge flow practices and their micro-foundations require further theoretical development. Using qualitative data on 40 cases of subsidiary managers’ knowledge mobilizations, this paper unravels micro-level practices of knowledge flows in MNCs. We find that subsidiary managers’ knowledge mobilizations initiate a complex pattern of subsidiary knowledge inflows, pinpointing the significance of lateral and bottom up exchanges (locally as well as internationally). We use these insights to distinguish between two types of subsidiary knowledge flows: deliberate and emergent, and discuss how their differences have profound implications for the investigation of MNC knowledge flows and their micro-foundations.     

非封闭的SIS确定模型与随机模型的研究

文章通过对具常数输入人口,死亡率和出生率的的SIS模型的确定形式与随机形式的研究,得到文中定义的基本再生数R0燮1时,传染病最终会消失,而当基本再生数大于等1时,传染病人数将稳定,传染病最终会形成地方病,最后验证了两种模型的结果是一致的。     

External balances,trade flows and financial conditions

This paper studies how changing expectations concerning future trade and financial conditions are reflected in international external positions. In the absence of Ponzi schemes and arbitrage opportunities, the net foreign asset position of any country must, as a matter of theory, equal the expected present discounted value of future trade deficits, discounted at the cumulated world stochastic discount factor (SDF) that prices all freely traded financial assets. I study the forecasting implications of this theoretical link in 12 countries (Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, The United States and The United Kingdom) between 1970 and 2011. I find that variations in the external positions of most countries reflect changing expectations about trade conditions far into the future. I also find the changing forecasts for the future path of the world SDF are reflected in the dynamics of the U.S. external position.     

森林资源资产组合随机控制模型及决策

在界定了森林生态资产与森林资源资产组合概念的基础上,构建和模拟了基于随机控制理论的森林资源资产组合模型,为森林经营管理者提出了相应的结论和建议:森林经营管理者可以根据最优采伐量与木材价格、补偿价格、成本系数、税率、贴现率、生长率等参数之间的关系,获得在市场经济变动条件下的最优森林资产组合,以保证森林资产净收益的稳定增长。     

PRICING DERIVATIVES ON MULTISCALE DIFFUSIONS: AN EIGENFUNCTION EXPANSION APPROACH

Using tools from spectral analysis, singular and regular perturbation theory, we develop a systematic method for analytically computing the approximate price of a large class of derivative‐assets. The payoff of the derivative‐assets may be path‐dependent. In addition, the process underlying the derivatives may exhibit killing (i.e., jump to default) as well as combined local/nonlocal stochastic volatility. The nonlocal component of volatility may be multiscale, in the sense that it may be driven by one fast‐varying and one slow‐varying factor. The flexibility of our modeling framework is contrasted by the simplicity of our method. We reduce the derivative pricing problem to that of solving a single eigenvalue equation. Once the eigenvalue equation is solved, the approximate price of a derivative can be calculated formulaically. To illustrate our method, we calculate the approximate price of three derivative‐assets: a vanilla option on a defaultable stock, a path‐dependent option on a nondefaultable stock, and a bond in a short‐rate model.     

Intra-market sovereign linkages of key Latin American markets

This paper tests the intra-market dynamics in a regional setting using country-specific international bonds differentiated only by maturity within individual markets in the Latin American region. We use the 2001 Argentine default as a natural experiment in this study to examine how intra-market dynamics evolved in the presence of a credit event in the region. This paper argues that emerging market instruments have a stronger tendency to tie up with instruments within markets rather than across markets as found in the literature. The long-run equilibrium relationships tend to be stronger across instruments within each market and generate economically insignificant portfolio adjustment weights. Strong interaction across instruments within markets in terms of first order dependencies has important implications for market participants, practitioners and policymakers.     

Optimal constrained investment in the Cramer-Lundberg model

We consider an insurance company whose surplus is represented by the classical Cramer-Lundberg process. The company can invest its surplus in a risk-free asset and in a risky asset, governed by the Black-Scholes equation. There is a constraint that the insurance company can only invest in the risky asset at a limited leveraging level; more precisely, when purchasing, the ratio of the investment amount in the risky asset to the surplus level is no more than a; and when short-selling, the proportion of the proceeds from the short-selling to the surplus level is no more than b. The objective is to find an optimal investment policy that minimizes the probability of ruin. The minimal ruin probability as a function of the initial surplus is characterized by a classical solution to the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. We study the optimal control policy and its properties. The interrelation between the parameters of the model plays a crucial role in the qualitative behavior of the optimal policy. For example, for some ratios between a and b, quite unusual and at first ostensibly counterintuitive policies may appear, like short-selling a stock with a higher rate of return to earn lower interest, or borrowing at a higher rate to invest in a stock with lower rate of return. This is in sharp contrast with the unrestricted case, first studied in Hipp and Plum, or with the case of no short-selling and no borrowing studied in Azcue and Muler.     

CLOSED FORM PRICING FORMULAS FOR DISCRETELY SAMPLED GENERALIZED VARIANCE SWAPS

Most of the existing pricing models of variance derivative products assume continuous sampling of the realized variance processes, though actual contractual specifications compute the realized variance based on sampling at discrete times. We present a general analytic approach for pricing discretely sampled generalized variance swaps under the stochastic volatility models with simultaneous jumps in the asset price and variance processes. The resulting pricing formula of the gamma swap is in closed form while those of the corridor variance swaps and conditional variance swaps take the form of one‐dimensional Fourier integrals. We also verify through analytic calculations the convergence of the asymptotic limit of the pricing formulas of the discretely sampled generalized variance swaps under vanishing sampling interval to the analytic pricing formulas of the continuously sampled counterparts. The proposed methodology can be applied to any affine model and other higher moments swaps as well. We examine the exposure to convexity (volatility of variance) and skew (correlation between the equity returns and variance process) of these discretely sampled generalized variance swaps. We explore the impact on the fair strike prices of these exotic variance swaps with respect to different sets of parameter values, like varying sampling frequencies, jump intensity, and width of the monitoring corridor.     

Momentum in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Stochastic Oscillator Indicators

ABSTRACT

We explore whether investors earn profits through the use of stochastic oscillator indicators (SOI) for trading stocks. The results reveal that investors might use momentum strategies when trading constituent stocks of SSE 50 as the overbought trading signals emitted by SOI. We infer that the results might be caused by herding behaviors of Chinese investors since overoptimistic moods are likely to exist as evidenced by the 80 percent trading volume traded by individual investors in the Chinese stock market.