银行持债行为影响国债市场的实证研究

本文从2003年银行间国债市场的回购利率和国债收益率的角度出发,同时结合货币政策对银行的资金调节作用,对银行持债行为与国债市场之间的关系进行了实证研究,从而揭示出银行持债行为对国债市场的重大影响作用,并得出有关债券市场的三个基本结论。     

Debt rescheduling and the choice between bonds and loans for LDCs' foreign debt

This paper examines less developed country (LDC) borrowers' choice of financing methods. I devleop and test the hypothesis that ex-ante consideration of rescheduling affects LDC borrowers' choice between bonds and commercial loans. Banks can monitor and distinguish between permanent and temporary shocks, while bondholders cannot. Therefore, debt rescheduling based on the nature of economic shocks is feasible with loan financing. Our empirical findings indicate the debt rescheduling is considered exante in LDC lending. In addition, default risk and contract size affect the choice of financing instruments.     

借鉴美国经验 完善我国债券结算代理业务

我国债券结算代理业务发展迅速,但也逐渐暴露出结算机制不够完善、客户服务意识不强、产品单一等问题。借鉴美国经验,本文建议建立以中央对手方（CCP）和净额结算为基础的债券结算机制,完善证券托管清算机构组织模式,培育独立评级机构,发展机构投资者,发挥行业自律组织的作用,建立以客户为中心的服务体系。     

关于三月浮息债负利差产生的原因与投资建议

该文基于Shibor报价工作实践,首先从投资者类型、债券流动性等多角度列举了浮息债定价的影响因素,分析了当前3M_Shibor浮息债利差持续为负的原因,然后在探讨归纳3M_Shibor的定价机理和阐释近期Shibor报价新特征的基础上,对3M_Shibor中期走势进行展望,并就投资3M_Shibor浮息债时需关注的问题予以提示。     

基于KMV模型的地方政府债券信用风险问题研究

借助于KMV模型的思想建立了地方政府债券信用风险模型,进一步探讨了模型的概率分布形态以提高模型的预测精度;并在确定预测标准后,针对2009年已发行地方政府债券的部分省市计算了各地安全发债规模。研究表明,基于KMV模型的地方政府债券信用风险模型具有很强的应用性和很好的推广前景;实践中,在对发债主体进行科学选择的基础上,通过该模型能实现对发债规模的控制,达到防止其发生信用风险的可能;同时,所选样本省市(除新疆外)的预测安全发债规模和实际发债额是合理的和安全的。因此,应建立一套科学规范的地方政府债券风险防控机制,以保证地方政府债券的健康发展。     

The impact of news,oil prices,and global market developments on Russian financial markets1

This paper analyses the impact of news, oil prices, and international financial market developments on daily returns on Russian bond and stock markets. First, regarding returns, energy news affects returns, while news from the war in Chechnya is not significant. Market volatility does not appear to be sensitive to either type of news. Second, a significant effect of the growth in oil prices on Russian stock returns is detected. Third, the international influence on Russian financial markets depends upon the degree of financial liberalization. The higher the degree of financial liberalization, the stronger is the impact of US stock returns on Russian financial markets. In addition, banking reform and interest rate liberalization efforts seem to dictate the globalization of Russian stock markets, while it is the progress in liberalizing securities markets and non‐bank financial institutions that matters more for the globalization of Russian bond markets.     

财政的政策性职能何去何从？

单纯调整总量关系的财政政策定位已经不能适用需要，长期性，战略性，体制性因素巳成为影响供求平衡的主要因素。财政政策应当在资本退出的补偿援助上发挥更大的作用，对过剩生产能力可施行政策性收购。财政要“积极”承担改革成本，可用发长债的收入直接支付改革过程中的转转代价，比较少的财政资源调动更多增量资源向落后地区集中，有必要探索“地方发债、中央贴息”的方法。     

Signalling under intertemporal resolution of uncertainty: Distinguishing debt-with-warrants from similar offerings

This article extends existing static analyses of debt-with-warrants' ability to signal by considering the intertemporal resolution of uncertainty. Provided that managers seek to minimize residual risk while correctly signalling prospects, callable bonds-with-warrants can prove strictly superior to analogous offerings of pure debt or of debt-with-equity. Because our intertemporal structure allows bonds to be called while warrants remain outstanding, these complicated offerings can also be successfully discriminated from convertible bonds. Managers can further accentuate dissipation of residual risk by simultaneously issuing debt-with-warrants and buying down existing equity (through share repurchase or cash dividends).The authors express our appreciation to Charlie Jacklin for discussions concerning this material. Our thanks also go to an anonymous referee atRQFA who helped us to refine our final product.Much of the work for this paper was conducted while Professor Robbins was a Visiting Research Scholar at Stanford GSB.     

美国债券定向发行制度研究及启示——兼论我国中小企业债券融资制度建设

最近,我国债券相关主管机关正积极研究债券定向发行制度。该制度的立法本源是通过构建适合具有自我保护能力的投资者的发行豁免或简化制度,提高融资效率,形成多层次的融资渠道。美国从发行、转售和清算结算及登记托管等环节对定向发行制度进行了全面系统的规范。而我国的债券定向发行制度规定过于简单,条块分割明显,实践效果差。本文建议借鉴美国相关制度,完善我国债券的定向发行制度。     

准市政债券的形成机理、运行与发展

在中国债券市场上,债券品种的结构性缺陷导致“准市政债券”现象日益引人关注。在归纳准市政债券运行特征的基础上,详细剖析了其形成机理和潜在风险,并把其认定为我国当前经济环境下特有的金融产品。关于准市政债券的未来发展方向,建议通过基础设施融资体制的改革来带动准市政债券的改革,而非本末倒置。