Effect of pension replacement rate on economic growth： A theoretical model

In social pension system, the pension replacement rate is one of the key parameters. It not only determines the welfare of retirees and the finance balance of social pension system, but also has an effect on economic growth. This paper analyzes the effect of the pension replacement rate on economic growth with the standard overlapping generations＇ model, and suggests that the pension replacement rate should keep an appropriate level for economic growth and the development of the pension system.     

关于高等学校学分置换的几点思考

高校实施学分置换,是高等教育主动适应知识经济时代对应用型人才需求的积极回应,也是高校人才培养模式改革不断深化的过程。它在理论上丰富了我国学分制改革的内容,在实践上推进了高等教育"以人为本、个性发展"的改革宗旨。为进一步推进高校学分置换的实施,提高人才的培养质量,笔者从四个方面提出了推进学分置换的措施。     

Enacting risk reduction: an examination of the volitional stages of smoking cessation within Scotland

This study examines an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) in the context of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) as an aid to smoking cessation. An attempt is made to address the intention–behaviour gap identified in the literature by specifically focusing on the role and interrelationships of volitional stages, namely intention, planning and anticipated effort. A convenience sample of 207 female smokers, aged 16–36, provided information about their views, attitudes and volitional behaviour regarding the use of NRT as an aid to smoking cessation. Results of this study show the TPB to be pertinent, accounting for 41% of the variance in intention to use NRT as an aid to smoking cessation. Furthermore, behavioural intention is found to mediate the relationship between the TPB antecedents (attitude, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control) and each of the two volitional elements, planning and anticipated effort. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

物价变动情况下折旧调整方法探究

本文探讨了在物价变动的情况下 ,通过计提“增补折旧”或用“资产减值准备”账户对折旧额进行调整的会计方法 ,以期更合理地计算折旧费用 ,实现实体资本保全。     

Supervisor Support for the Permanent Replacement of Economic Strikers

Sixty-one supervisors were surveyed to examine the importance of organization commitment, union approval, and quality of union-management relationship in explaining supervisor support for hiring permanent replacements in short and long strike situations. Organization commitment and union approval exhibited a unique negative relationship with support for hiring replacements in a short strike, and union approval exhibited a unique negative relationship with support for hiring replacements in a long strike situation.     

上海市城镇职工个人账户养老金精算研究

该文以上海市城镇职工为例,对现行城镇基本养老保险中个人账户养老金进行精算分析。研究方法为在建立基本模型的基础上,对相关参数进行赋值,测算个人账户养老金的积累额、月计发额及工资替代率水平,分析不同因素对个人账户养老金月领取标准及个人账户养老金替代率的影响。     

Is econometrics useful for private policy making? A case study of replacement policy at an auto rental company

The goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of econometrics as a tool to assist private policy makers. We provide a case study and detailed econometric analysis of the automobile replacement policy adopted by a large car rental company. Unlike public policy making–where the benefits from using econometric models and “science-based” approaches to policy making are hard to quantify because the outcomes of interest are typically subjective quantities such as “social welfare”–in the case of firms there is an objective, easily quantifiable criterion for judging whether policy A is better than policy B: profits. We introduce and estimate an econometric model of the rental histories of individual cars in the company’s fleet. Via stochastic simulations, we show that the model provides a good approximation to the company’s actual operations. In particular, the econometric model is able to reproduce the extraordinarily high rates of return that the company obtains on its rental cars, with average internal rates of return between purchase and sale of approximately 50%. However, the econometric model can simulate outcomes under a range of counterfactual vehicle replacement policies. We use the econometric model to simulate the profitability of an alternative replacement policy under pessimistic assumptions about the rate maintenance costs would increase and rental rates would have to be decreased if the company were to keep its rental cars longer than it does under the status quo. Depending on the vehicle type, we find that the company’s expected discounted profits would be between 6% to over 140% higher under the suggested alternative operating strategy where vehicles are kept longer and rental rates of older vehicles are discounted to induce customers to rent them. The company found this analysis to be sufficiently convincing that it undertook an experiment to verify the predictions of the econometric model.     

The economic value of INTUITY in aortic valve replacement

Objective: The recent development of the EDWARDS INTUITY Elite? (EIE) valve system enables the rapid deployment of a prosthetic surgical heart valve in an aortic valve replacement (AVR) procedure via both the minimally invasive (MISAVR) and conventional (CAVR) approaches. In order to understand its economic value, this study performed a cost evaluation of the EIE valve system used in a MIS rapid-deployment approach (MIS-RDAVR) vs MISAVR and CAVR, respectively, compared to standard prosthetic aortic valves.

Methods: A simulation model was developed using TreeAge (and validated with MS Excel) to compare the inpatient utilization and complication costs for each treatment arm. Thirty-day clinical end-points for the MIS-RDAVR (mortality and complications) were taken from the TRANSFORM trial; and a best evidence review of the published literature was used for the MISAVR and CAVR approaches. Studies were pooled and parameter estimates were weighted by sample size in order to compare the TRANSFORM patients. Cost data (2016 USD) were taken from the Premier database. Incremental cost and cost-effectiveness was assessed and one-way/probabilistic sensitivity analyses performed to gauge the robustness of the results.

Results: MIS-RDAVR costs $2,621 less than CAVR and had lower mortality rates, making it a superior (dominant) technology relative to CAVR. MIS-RDAVR costs $4,560 more than MISAVR, but was associated with an additional 0.20 life years-per-patient. This implies a cost-effectiveness ratio of $22,903 per-life-year-gained. Thus, MIS-RDAVR is cost-effective compared to MISAVR.

Conclusions: The EIE valve system deployed in a MIS approach appears to be a cost-effective technology compared to MISAVR and CAVR. When compared to CAVR it may achieve cost savings as well. These results suggest that MIS-RDAVR confers superior economic value compared to both standard MISAVR and CAVR via lowered key complication rates (re-operation, renal complications, wound infection, TIA, endocarditis) and utilization (cross-clamp time, hospital ward days).     

新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算模型及其实证分析

本文依据2009年国务院发布的《关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》,运用保险精算的方法,构建出新农保替代率精算模型,并依据该模型对新农保替代率进行实证分析。通过分析提出以下建议:以农民人均纯收入作为缴费基数,实行比例费率制;鼓励农民尽早开始参保并保持长期缴费;鼓励参保农民选择较高的档次标准缴费;新农保个人账户基金应当在适当情况下进行市场化投资运营;继续强化土地保障和家庭保障的作用。