国有商业银行脆弱性实证研究（1985——2005）

本文对各种银行脆弱性理论和实证研究进行整合后，选择4个核心指标对1985～2005年的国有商业银行脆弱性进行判断，认为国有商业银行脆弱性程度呈现先上升后下降的趋势，近2年的脆弱性程度已经降到历史最低点。从这个意义上说，国有商业银行能否保持和巩固改革和发展的成果，成功实现“战略转型”和向现代商业银行的蜕变，将成为一个重要的历史性课题。Granger因果关系检验和协整分析表明，部分宏观经济指标和金融指标均与国有商业银行脆弱性存在Granger因果关系和长期均衡关系，其中金融指标对脆弱性的影响程度高于宏观经济指标。一个良性互动的经济和金融体系，是银行稳定发展的重要基础。     

中国工业化发展水平与环境质量的关系

对1981-2003年中国工业化发展水平与环境质量的发展态势,以及二者之间关系实证分析的结果表明:二者之间具有一定的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征;存在从工业化到环境的单向因果关系.这说明,中国当前的环保政策在某些方面是有效的,但整体环境污染问题依然严峻;中国环境质量的改善不能单靠环境保护来实现,还应考虑到工业化的发展状况,包括经济增长速度、产业结构等.     

Shifting International Competitiveness: An Analysis of Market Share in Manufacturing Industries in Japan,Korea, Taiwan and the USA*

In the present study we conduct constant market share analysis of the imports and apparent consumption of the manufacturing industries of four major economies‐Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the USA. Additionally, the current study disaggregates import penetration in manufacturing, including sectors with relatively high technological requirements. Statistical tests of the significance of changes in import penetration in manufacturing industries are also conducted. The real growth of exports and apparent consumption in the two largest OECD markets is decomposed into: (i) the commodity composition effect; and (ii) the competitiveness effect. Finally, we examine the significance of trade policy for changes in import penetration in Japan and the USA.     

简易误码率测试装置的设计

利用GAL器件和单片机PIC16C74设计产生频率可变、输出电压可调的噪声、码元和传输速率可变的测试码，对被测系统进行误码率测试，输出测试的结果。     

Using Hicksian Surplus Measures to Examine Consistency of Individual Preferences: Evidence from a Field Experiment

This paper pits neoclassical theory against prospect theory by investigating several clean tests of the competing hypotheses. Consistent with previous work, the field experimental data suggest that prospect theory adequately organizes behavior among inexperienced consumers, whereas consumers with intense market experience behave largely in accordance with neoclassical predictions. The data indicate that the convergence in values occurs entirely because of lower Hicksian equivalent surplus values.     

我国宏观经济政策与经济波动的实证研究

本文根据Granger因果检验和联立方程模型，利用我国1985—2003年的年度统计数据，对我国宏观经济政策与经济波动之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明，消费政策、投资政策和外贸政策对经济波动影响的显著性水平要高于财政政策和货币政策对经济波动影响的显著性水平，影响我国经济波动的关键政策并不是财政政策和货币政策，而是消费政策、投资政策和外贸政策。     

物流场理论研究

本文把物流活动视为特殊的“物理场”．物流供需矛盾处理视为客户在物流中心激发的物流场的作用．定义了物流场强、特流动量、物流场势、物流场压等概念,运用场理论分析研究物流活动的基本规律,建立物流场守恒定律。     

An empirical note about additive outliers and nonstationarity in Latin-American inflation series

This note shows the empirical dangers of the presence of large additive outliers when testing for unit roots using standard unit root statistics. Using recent proposed procedures applied to four Latin-American inflation series, I show that the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected.Jel classification: C2, C3, C5I want to thank Pierre Perron for useful comments on a preliminary version of this paper. Helpful comments from an anonymous referee, and Yiagadeesen Samy are appreciated. I thank the Editor Baldev Raj for useful comments about the final structure of this paper. Finally, I also thank André Lucas for helpful suggestions concerning the use of his nice computer program Robust Inference Plus Estimation (RIPE).First revision received: August 2001/Final revision received: December 2002     

Pacific Basin stock markets and international capital asset pricing

In this paper, we follow Harvey (1991) to investigate whether rates of return on Pacific Basin stock markets can be explained by conditional version of International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), which allows for time-varying expected returns, variances, and covariances. The results show that most individual Pacific Basin markets can be described by the conditional ICAPM. However, the multiple markets' tests do not support the conditional ICAPM formulation, and the estimates of world reward to risk ratio are not the same across these markets. Furthermore, the Ghysels and Hall test (Ghysels & Hall, 1990a, 1990b) shows that the estimates of parameter are also unstable in the conditional ICAPM formulation. This implies that it is difficult to use world return to describe the relationship between expected return and risk for the Pacific Basin stock markets.     

Currency Crisis in Korea – When and Why It Happened

Two possible causes of the Korean financial crisis are examined: (1)deterioration of the macroeconomic indicators andinconsistent policies and (2) sudden shifts in the market expectation andconfidence. Although the truthseems to lie between these causes, we conclude that the Korean currency crisisresulted from aserious mismanagement of foreign exchange rates and foreign currency reservesas well as theaccumulation of short-term foreign debts. Although it is generally believedthat the exchange rate ofthe won started depreciating drastically on 8 November 1997, depreciationstarted three monthsearlier when the international market conditions put the pressure on the won.