非财务信息与财务危机预警——来自我国上市公司的证据

本文从我国上市公司中,选取30家财务危机公司,与30家财务健康公司作为样本。首先对两组公司的13个财务变量,进行均值的t检验和Wilcoxon秩检验。选择合适的财务变量集,再将此财务变量集分别与董事会高管人员持股比例、股权集中度、股票价格变动趋势,及是否更换会计师事务所等,四个非财务变量一起作为解释变量,建立Logistic回归模型。实证研究结果表明,股票价格变动趋势与财务危机风险显著相关,加入非财务变量的预测模型效果更优。     

我国航空运输的市场预测

本文论述了目前我国航空运输业的现状及面临的问题，阐述了航空运输的市场预测对我国航空运输业发展的帮助和作用，并介绍了航空运输量预测的一般方法。以我国航空货邮运输量预测为例，对我国近十年来航空货部运输量的发展变化进行了详细的分析和对比。通过三种数学模型预测了我国2015年的航空货邮运输量。     

价格因素对新能源汽车推广的影响研究

运用Bass模型探究价格因素对新能源汽车推广的影响。首先,在基础Bass模型中引入价格影响函数?1、?2 ,并利用价格数据确立价格影响函数中Pr(t)表达式;其次,利用非线性最小二乘法(NLS)根据2006-2019年新能源汽车历史销量数据对基础模型和改进模型的拟合精度进行检验,得出引入?2形式的Bass模型更适用于新能源汽车的市场规模研究;最后,使用改进模型对2020-2025年我国新能源汽车未来市场表现进行短期预测,并分析价格因素的影响机制。研究发现2020年我国新能源汽车累计年销量可实现500万辆的规划目标,2025年累计年销量却与规划目标相差甚远。价格优惠在新能源汽车2.0时期起到很好的促进作用,而3.0时期效用甚微。     

Cross-Classification Analysis Using Prediction Logic Versus Theory-Testing Logic: Comments on the Use of the DEL-Technique

Without acknowledging the paradigm difference between testing theory and predicting events, researchers in the field of management and organization continue to use the DEL-technique as a promising technique to evaluate theory based on cross-classification data analysis. We address the purpose and interpretation of the DEL-measure within the theory-testing and events-predicting paradigm. We argue that DEL, a proportionate reduction in error measure, is not to be interpreted in terms of the proportionate error reduction of knowing a prediction rule over not knowing it. In addition, a significant DEL-value is not to be interpreted as a dependence-measure of acceptance of a hypothesis as the only and best relationship between two categorical variables, just as a non-significant DEL-value cannot be interpreted as a measure of independence. Furthermore, an alternative proportionate reduction in error measure generates unequivocally interpretable results compared to the DEL-technique. Ton Steerneman passed away on September, 28, 2005.     

我国政府绩效审计理论研究与实践现状

近年来随着我国财政体制改革的逐步推进,政府绩效受关注的程度越来越高,同时,政府绩效审计不管是在理论界还是实务界都取得了一些成果。本文在总结我国政府绩效审计理论研究成果和实践经验的基础上,对当前的理论研究提出了相关建议,就今后的研究重点进行了展望。     

Prediction difficulty, financial strength and debt maturity

In order to have the optimal capital structure, the company with higher volatility of return adjusts the capital structure more frequently and has shorter debt maturity. Investors also have shorter investment cycle on these companies. Investment cycle is also affected by information asymmetry. The less asymmetric the information is, the more information investors get and the longer the investment cycle is. The adjustment frequency is also restricted by financial strength. This paper measures the debt maturity structure of the firm as the weighted average of debt maturity, and it is more precise than the ratio of long term debt to total debt. In empirical tests on debt maturity, the results show that financial strength, volatility of return and asymmetric information all have negative impacts on debt maturity.     

浅析企业利用金融衍生工具管理外汇风险

2012年4月16日起,人民币兑美元汇率波动幅度由千分之五扩大至百分之一;未来一段时期人民币兑美元双向波动态势将进一步增强,企业所面临的外汇风险的管理难度将增大。如何增强外汇风险管理的能力已经成为每个企业的首要任务,而金融衍生工具的使用是企业规避外汇风险、加强外汇风险管理的重要方法之一。本文通过分析企业利用金融衍生工具管理外汇风险存在的问题,探究其原因,最后提出解决问题的方法。     

灰色预测理论在供应链管理需求预测中应用

供应链是多个组织的共同增值网络,对市场需求的预测是供应链上各个节点企业的重要工作之一,而缺乏有效的需求信息预测与共享则是供应链运作效率低下的主要原因之一。在分析GMx1,1x预测模型的基础上,结合实例对供应链管理中的市场需求进行预测,旨在提高物流和供应链管理的科学性,进而取得比较理想的结果。     

Australia’s ‘two-strikes’ rule and the pay-performance link: Are shareholders judicious?

To improve accountability of executive compensation, Australia introduced the ‘say-on-pay’ legislation in 2011, which is widely known as the ‘two-strikes’ rule. We investigate the consequences of this new rule for the pay-performance link in Australian firms. Employing a matched-pair design, we find that pay changes of the chief executive officer and the key management personnel were not significantly positively related to the stock returns of the firms that registered a ‘first strike’ in 2011 under the ‘two-strikes’ rule. However, the relations improved significantly in 2012. Our results also suggest that the shareholders of the ‘first-strike’ firms may have been over-enthusiastic about their voting power in 2011 but exercised this power more judiciously in 2012. Our findings provide important insights for the global debate on governance of executive compensation.