降费综合方案下企业职工基本养老保险财政风险预警

财政对城镇职工基本养老保险的补贴在逐年迅速递增,财政风险亟待掌握。《降低社会保险费率综合方案》同时调整了养老保险单位缴费率和平均工资计算口径。本文根据该文件并考虑参保人缴费不都连续、缴费工资低于统计工资等等实际情况,构建企业职工基本养老保险收支结余精算模型。对比降费有关三种情形对企业职工基本养老保险财务状况的影响,发现降费综合方案虽然在预测前期少数年份会使财务状况有所恶化,但在预测期的大多数年份都能抑制财务状况恶化的势头。基于该方案的实施,设置低、中、高情景预测基本养老保险未来75年间各年的财政风险,发现在不计财政补贴的情况下,无论何种情景,预测期内都会出现支付缺口,且财政风险随年份推移快速上升。建立财政风险预警机制已刻不容缓。故选择预警指标,设立预警级别,评估各级预警的年份区间。考察延迟退休、全面二孩等因素对关键预警指标和预警年份区间的影响,为缓解财政风险提出政策建议。     

Cost data quality considerations for eco-efficiency measures

Cost data are a central aspect of eco-efficiency measures, either as means to assess value of production, or, more directly, as one dimension of the efficiency ratio. Several aspects may affect the quality of cost data, among them definitions, time and space, and confidentiality issues. Somewhat surprisingly, cost data quality has received little attention in the field of sustainability and eco-efficiency so far. Even worse, perhaps, is the lack of tools suitable for a cost data quality assessment and management.This paper discusses parameters that affect cost data quality, and will then propose a pedigree matrix as a tool designed for managing cost data quality issues. The application of the matrix is described, also in combination with a previously proposed, and broadly used, pedigree matrix for environmental data quality management.     

湖南省区域现代物流体系构建及发展对策研究

在分析湖南省区域物流体系发展现状及其存在的问题的基础上,提出了在中部崛起的背景下构筑湖南省区域现代物流系统的具体目标;并对湖南省区域现代物流体系的构架及其构建方案提出了可行性的建议。     

项目组合投资综合决策模型及其应用探析

对项目组合投资问题建立了一个综合决策数学模型,利用优化理论并结合一个具体实例进行了求解。给出的算例为文中的模型和方法作了一个诠释,从理论上得到了一个能使企业获得最大收益的最终投资方案。     

Bayesian Model Averaging: A Systematic Review and Conceptual Classification

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) provides a coherent and systematic mechanism for accounting for model uncertainty. It can be regarded as an direct application of Bayesian inference to the problem of model selection, combined estimation and prediction. BMA produces a straightforward model choice criterion and less risky predictions. However, the application of BMA is not always straightforward, leading to diverse assumptions and situational choices on its different aspects. Despite the widespread application of BMA in the literature, there were not many accounts of these differences and trends besides a few landmark revisions in the late 1990s and early 2000s, therefore not accounting for advancements made in the last decades. In this work, we present an account of these developments through a careful content analysis of 820 articles in BMA published between 1996 and 2016. We also develop a conceptual classification scheme to better describe this vast literature, understand its trends and future directions and provide guidance for the researcher interested in both the application and development of the methodology. The results of the classification scheme and content review are then used to discuss the present and future of the BMA literature.     

基于BIM的室内装修方案比选研究

室内装修方案的比选,应从产品全生命周期角度出发,考虑施工成本、用户使用体验和运营维护。论文应用BIM技术创建虚拟装修样板间,实现业主和最终用户对设计方案的沉浸式体验,运用层次分析法定量比选装修方案,寻求更理想的装修方案。     

地下综合管廊基坑支护方案经济评价及优化探讨

目前城市地下综合管廊通常采用明挖基坑进行施工。城市地下综合管廊由于结构体量大,整体埋深较深,因此基坑支护费用较高,有的地下综合管廊基坑支护费用甚至超过管廊主体结构费用。在综合管廊主体结构规模确定的情况下,管廊基坑支护方案的选择往往决定了综合管廊整体工程造价的高低,因此控制综合管廊基坑支护的造价是控制综合管廊整体造价的重要内容。文章在对地下综合管廊常用基坑支护方案的适用条件、造价指标、优缺点进行经济评价的基础上,提出了综合管廊施工图设计和施工方案设计时基坑支护方案的选择原则,探讨了基坑支护方案的优化方向,并以某综合管廊项目基坑支护为例,详细介绍了具体的优化内容,以供大家参考。     

A map traceability management scheme for security control

ABSTRACT

A map traceability management scheme for security control is proposed utilising visual cryptography and Quick Response Code. The map information is classified into two categories: the public information MPI and the traceable map information MTI, and they are both converted into QR codes. Map shares MS and control shares CS are generated according to extended multiple visual cryptographic scheme. MPI can be obtained by scanning the MS, while MTI can be got by overlaying the MS on CS which is only accessible to management units, so it can identify every map and provide the basis for the traceability management.     

中小物流企业制定战略时需考虑的几个问题

在战略上建立自己的竞争优势．已成为企业提升竞争力的重要手段。随着物流巨头的不断渗入．中小物流企业的经营压力持续增加。一个好的战略将会为中小物流企业赢得长足的发展机会。论文提出中小物流企业在进行战略分析和制定时应加强对企业定位、物流服务对象、正确选择和运用战略分析工具、正确看待经验在战略制定中的地位四个方面的分析。     

基于模糊层次分析法的应急物流方案选择

针对应急物流的特点,设计了应急物流预案的评价指标体系,并运用模糊层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重,建立起指标体系的综合评价方法。当突发事件发生时,为快速地选择一个有效的应急物流预案提供了一个简单可行的方法。