Career Patterns of Supply Chain Executives: An Optimal Matching Analysis

This exploratory study analyzes the careers of 307 supply chain executives (SCEs). Motivated by career theory, our findings create new knowledge about the educational backgrounds and career paths that lead to SCE positions. Based on an optimal matching analysis, we are able to distinguish among six career patterns for SCEs. They differ in terms of the individuals’ previous professional experience, educational background, and the time they needed to arrive in an executive position. By characterizing the backgrounds and career paths of SCEs, we show that supply chain management (SCM) is truly a cross‐functional profession. Our findings suggest that previous staff responsibility appears to be a more important hiring criterion than extensive SCM experience. While 56% of the executives had prior staff responsibility, only 12% of the cumulated careers were actually spent inside the SCM function.     

The impact of relative residence times on the distribution of heavy drinkers in highly distinct environments

Alcohol consumption is a function of social dynamics, environmental contexts, individuals' preferences and family history. Empirical surveys have focused primarily on identification of risk factors for high-level drinking but have done little to clarify the underlying mechanisms at work. Also, there have been few attempts to apply nonlinear dynamics to the study of these mechanisms and processes at the population level. A simple framework where drinking is modeled as a socially contagious process in low- and high-risk connected environments is introduced. Individuals are classified as light, moderate (assumed mobile), and heavy drinkers. Moderate drinkers provide the link between both environments, that is, they are assumed to be the only individuals drinking in both settings. The focus here is on the effect of moderate drinkers, measured by the proportion of their time spent in “low-” versus “high-” risk drinking environments, on the distribution of drinkers.A simple model within our contact framework predicts that if the relative residence times of moderate drinkers are distributed randomly between low- and high-risk environments then the proportion of heavy drinkers is likely to be higher than expected. However, the full story even in a highly simplified setting is not so simple because “strong” local social mixing tends to increase high-risk drinking on its own. High levels of social interaction between light and moderate drinkers in low-risk environments can diminish the importance of the distribution of relative drinking times on the prevalence of heavy drinking.     

论我国西部区域间经济发展格局的变动

西部大开发的10年中,西部各地区都取得了巨大的发展成就,但彼此间的发展进度并不一致,导致了经济发展格局的变动。经过数据分析发现,西部各区域间发展差距有扩大的趋势,并且经济发展重心也有较大变化。认真分析这一变化,对于因地制宜的制定区域发展政策,促进区域协调发展具有重要指导意义。     

Money Allocation to Out-of-Home Leisure Activities and the Organization of These Activities in Time and Space

Monetary budgets influence activity participation and related travel as they demarcate limits on how people organize their activities in time and space. In this paper, we are interested in money allocation to out-of-home leisure activities and how this is affected by duration, sociodemographics, and time-location variables. Analyses were carried out by applying a seemingly unrelated regression model to a leisure activity data set. The analyses revealed that expenditures for out-of-home leisure activities are influenced by the variables mentioned above. Moreover, the results indicate that there is a substitution between expenditure of each activity.     

劳动要素报酬、人口结构与中国居民储蓄

以动态一般均衡模型为出发点,分析劳动要素报酬、人口结构对居民储蓄率的影响,并运用中国1978～2009年的数据对劳动要素报酬、老人赡养比、儿童抚养比与中国居民储蓄率进行实证检验。研究发现,市场经济转型以来的劳动要素报酬高速增长、老人赡养比上升以及儿童抚养比的下降导致中国储蓄率不断升高,在此基础上给出相应的政策建议。     

台风“莫拉克”造成商水县特大暴雨洪灾的分析

台风暴雨是台风灾害的主要形式之一,同时也是我国中东部地区的一种重要降水类型。研究中国台风暴雨的气候特征,首要的意义在于防灾减灾,另外对辨别和把握我国气候变化的态势也有重要价值。2009年8月11日因台风＂莫拉克＂带来了一次连续性暴雨天气过程,给商水县造成了重大的经济损失。现将＂莫拉克＂影响前期的物象特征,与其有关的几个因素及其利与弊作一简单的分析。     

旅游业发展对贵州“走后工业化道路”的影响

处在工业化初期的贵州省,要实现国民经济的跳跃式发展,可以根据李嘉图和亚当.斯密"相对有利条件论",通过"走后工业化之路"发挥后发优势中的自然优势来实现这一目标。但是,后发优势是一种"潜在优势",要将其变为"现实优势"需要一定的条件,就是要在第三产业发展中找到一个支撑点。本文通过归纳分析认为,作为综合性服务行业的旅游,是贵州省发展第三产业的支撑点,对推动贵州经济"走后工业化"道路有极其重要的影响。     

The patterns of induced diffusion: Evidence from the international diffusion of wind energy

Recent years have seen growing academic interest in the concept of induced diffusion as efforts to address concerns about energy security and climate change have intensified. Research on induced diffusion explores whether policy tools or interventions can incentivise the diffusion of innovations. This body of literature has explored the effectiveness and efficiency of various policy interventions and as such has been mainly concerned with the determinants of diffusion. This paper is, by way of contrast, concerned with the patterns of diffusion when diffusion is induced. Drawing on the Bass and Davies models of innovation diffusion we develop a number of propositions that suggest that the patterns of diffusion are different when policy plays a role in the diffusion process. These propositions are then econometrically tested in the context of the international diffusion of wind energy in 25 OECD countries. We find that, as predicted, without effective and strong policy interventions, countries will have conventional logistic diffusion with very similar speeds of diffusion. However, as expected the patterns of diffusion take on a different functional form (Bass curve) when there is a strong policy inducement. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of these results and suggesting avenues for further research.     

山东省海岛渔业板块空间布局及发展模式分析

海岛渔业是山东省海洋渔业的一个重要组成部分,由于山东海岛布局分散,发展模式混乱,海岛渔业生产效率低下。重构海岛渔业板块的空间布局,根据海岛空间特征重新配置渔业资源,创新渔业发展模式,对海岛的空间结构和产业结构进行整合,已经成为山东省海岛渔业可持续发展的重要路径。需从提升综合效益、完善基础设施、重构开发次序等角度对海岛渔业板块进一步优化。     

Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Evaluation of Alternative Statistical Frameworks

Corporate bankruptcy prediction has attracted significant research attention from business academics, regulators and financial economists over the past five decades. However, much of this literature has relied on quite simplistic classifiers such as logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Based on a large sample of US corporate bankruptcies, we examine the predictive performance of 16 classifiers, ranging from the most restrictive classifiers (such as logit, probit and linear discriminant analysis) to more advanced techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines (SVMs) and “new age” statistical learning models including generalised boosting, AdaBoost and random forests. Consistent with the findings of Jones et al. ( 2015 ), we show that quite simple classifiers such as logit and LDA perform reasonably well in bankruptcy prediction. However, we recommend the use of “new age” classifiers in corporate bankruptcy modelling because: (1) they predict significantly better than all other classifiers on both the cross‐sectional and longitudinal test samples; (2) the models may have considerable practical appeal because they are relatively easy to estimate and implement (for instance, they require minimal researcher intervention for data preparation, variable selection and model architecture specification); and (3) while the underlying model structures can be very complex, we demonstrate that “new age” classifiers have a reasonably good level of interpretability through such metrics as relative variable importances (RVIs).