EMPIRICAL PERFORMANCE OF GARCH MODELS WITH HEAVY‐TAILED INNOVATIONS

We introduce a new type of heavy‐tailed distribution, the normal reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution (NRIG), to the GARCH and Glosten‐Jagannathan‐Runkle (1993) GARCH models, and compare its empirical performance with two other popular types of heavy‐tailed distribution, the Student's t distribution and the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG), using a variety of asset return series. Our results illustrate that there is no overwhelmingly dominant distribution in fitting the data under the GARCH framework, although the NRIG distribution performs slightly better than the other two types of distribution. For market indexes series, it is important to introduce both GJR‐terms and the NRIG distribution to improve the models’ performance, but it is ambiguous for individual stock prices series. Our results also show the GJR‐GARCH NRIG model has practical advantages in quantitative risk management. Finally, the convergence of numerical solutions in maximum‐likelihood estimation of GARCH and GJR‐GARCH models with the three types of heavy‐tailed distribution is investigated.     

Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War

This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.     

城市房屋拆迁中的公共利益在程序法上的界定——兼评《城市房屋拆迁管理条例》第十六条

公共利益内涵在立法上的缺失,造成大量个人利益被侵犯的案例,在城市房屋拆迁中尤其突出。本文通过探讨如何从程序上赋予受公共利益影响者参与对公共利益内涵的确定以及在个人利益受到侵犯时给予司法救济的途径的问题,试图从法律程序上限制政府对公共利益的滥用,并最大程度地维护公民的个人利益,以此暂时回避对公共利益内涵问题的探讨。     

On Measuring the Value of a Nonmarket Good Using Market Data

We use line integral theory to lay out in a more general theoretical framework the conditions under which it is possible to measure with market data the welfare effects of a change in a nonmarket good. We present in detail a numerical method of measuring the value of nonmarket goods using market data, under either weak neutrality or weak complementarity. Our numerical method is more flexible than the existing analytical method because it can be used with any well-behaved Marshallian demand function, and can be used even when the willig condition does not hold.     

浅论连锁经营在化肥零售中的运用

本文通过对部分税务部门提取、使用个人所得税手续费实际工作中存在的各种问题的反映 ,从现行管理体制和监管方面 ,深入分析了问题产生了原因 ,并针对如何规范和改进所得税手续费的提取和使用 ,提出了一些建议性的意见。     

组织和开展党派监督:新时期内地统战工作的核心

统一战线有广义和狭义之分,新时期内地统一战线的核心工作是组织和开展党派监督,这是统一战线理论假设运用于当代中国而形成的必然逻辑推论。要使这一核心工作得以落实,一些程序化的操作建议可供参考。     

我国财务会计概念框架重要性和可行性探讨

本文从各国财务会计概念框架的实践现状和会计准则的概念框架特征入手,对我国建立概念框架的重要性、可行性进行分析,同时对我国准则制订机构和制订程序的优化提出了初步的建议。     

规划理论二分法中的本体理论和程序理论

规划的本体理论与程序理论是规划理论二分法中最为显著的一组二元对立.首先界定了规划本体与规划程序之间的差异,然后通过辨析三组规划理论,即规划中的理论与规划的理论、系统理论与理性理论、导向型理论与交往型理论,深入探讨了规划的本体理论与程序理论之间的联系与区别,以及它们对规划方法和实践的影响.     

浅论我国民事反诉制度的完善

在民事诉讼制度中,反诉制度是一项重要的制度.英美法系对反诉制度功能的发挥持积极的态度,注重实用,利用反诉制度一次性解决与之相关的纠纷,同时对反诉严格区分为强制反诉与任意反诉;而大陆法系对反诉制度的功能持保守的态度,注重理论的完整性,严格遵守关联性要件理论.在对反诉作出深刻认识的基础上,通过对比英美法系与大陆法系不同的反诉观,利用我国现有的反诉理论,提出我国应当注重实用,引入英美法系的强制反诉理论,做为完善我国反诉制度的指向.     

股东派生诉讼制度的完善初探——香港法院法定衍生诉讼案例分析

通过对股东派生诉讼制度的法律规定进行对比研究,本文认为香港法定衍生诉讼某些方面的制度设计可资我们予以借鉴。在公司治理机构不积极处理公司涉及的诉讼时,应允许股东代表公司介入诉讼。应增设法院听证程序,给予公司治理机构申辩的机会,平衡各方利益。当公司两名以上股东基于同一事实提出相冲突的诉讼请求以及公司治理机构对股东派生诉讼提出异议的时候,启动法院听证程序。