Rationalizable expectations and sunspot equilibria in an overlapping-generations economy

There are two theories for the treatment of market uncertainty: rationalizable expectations and sunspot equilibria. This paper shows how the game-theoretic solution concept of rationalizable expectations can be applied to an overlapping-generations exchange economy. Some general properties of these equilibria are discussed. It is shown that rationalizable-expectations equilibria are the predictions yielded by considering sunspot equilibria in which probability beliefs may differ across individuals. This result allows for a new interpretation of sunspot equilibria and helps to understand their relevance.     

Unskilled Migration: A Burden or a Boon for the Welfare State?

As relatively low earners, migrants are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. Therefore, in a static setup, migration may be resisted by the entire native-born population. However, it is shown that in a dynamic setup with a pension system, which is an important pillar of any welfare state, migration is beneficial to all income (high and low) and all age (old and young) groups, when the economy has good access to international capital markets. The pro-migration feature of the dynamic model is weakened and possibly overturned when the economy does not have good access to such markets. In this case, to the extent that factor prices are significantly affected by migration because of low substitution between labour and capital, low-skill native born and possibly also high-skill native born may lose.     

高职与普通本科分段培养高端技能型人才探索与实践——以常州信息职业技术学院“3+2”试点专业为例

本文以常州信息职业技术学院"3+2"试点专业为例,着重研究了高职与普通本科分段人才培养,并根据其高端技能型人才培养经验提出了一些看法。     

太行山南段主要隆升时期探讨

本文以太行山南段为研究区域,通过对夷平面的研究,认为太行期夷平面形成之后至唐县期夷平面形成之前太行山南段隆升约1300m,占整个山体隆升幅度的70%。河流阶地的研究表明太行山南段第四纪以来的隆升幅度约80m,对太行山南段隆升成山的贡献不大。同时,山前坳陷盆地古近系-新近系与第四系之间存在巨大的地层厚度差,以及山前断裂在古近纪和新近纪时期活动频繁,第四纪时期活动性弱。以上证据表明太行山南段主要隆升于太行期夷平面形成之后至唐县期夷平面形成之前,即中新世至上新世中期,第四纪隆升幅度较小。     

Inter-regional endogenous growth under the impacts of demographic changes

This article attempts to project the economic paths for the individual Midwest states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, as well as the rest of the US) in the near future when the population ageing becomes more pronounced. To accomplish this task, a dynamic general equilibrium model is developed so that it could incorporate the inter-regional transactions and endogenous growth mechanisms within the framework of an Overlapping Generations (OLG) model. Key parameter values associated with the regional interconnections were assigned using a multi-regional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the Midwest states. Two different steady-state results were presented with two different age-cohort population structures corresponding to year 2007 and 2030. These steady-state results imply that the rate of declining of per-capita output is projected to be heterogeneous across the regions due to different developments of age-cohort population structures and consequently different levels of endogenously determined educational investment of workers. Also, two steady-state simulation results revealed that the development of output price in a certain region reflects the dynamics of demographics of every region. Meanwhile, the dynamic simulation results reveal that the per-capita output of every region is projected to grow positively in the near future when the population ageing will be pronounced. However, the growth rate of the per-capita output is projected to be heterogeneous across the regions: the regions with high-skilled workers hold the potential threat that population ageing could give more negative impacts on the economy due to the relatively sluggish growth of human capital stock. Also, the dynamic simulation results show that certain regions in the Midwest will experience their terms of trade deterioration in the near future, implying that careful attention should be given to their future trade conditions.     

Tax Policy and Human Capital Formation with Public Investment in Education

This paper studies the effects of distortionary taxes and public investment in an endogenous growth OLG model with knowledge transmission. Fiscal policy affects growth in two respects: first, work time reacts to variations of prospective tax rates and modifies knowledge formation; second, public spending enhances labour efficiency but also stimulates physical capital through increased savings. It is shown that Ramsey-optimal policies reduce savings due to high tax rates on young generations, and are not necessarily growth-improving with respect to a pure private system. Non-Ramsey policies that shift the burden on adults are always growth-improving due to crowding-in effects: the welfare of all generations is unambiguously higher with respect to a private system, and there generally exists a continuum of non-optimal tax rates under which long-run growth and welfare are higher than with the Ramsey-optimal policy.     

Optimality of Stationary Asset Equilibria Under A Stochastic Inflation Tax

In this paper we characterize the set of Pareto optimal asset equilibria in an incomplete market OLG framework when inflation-tax-financed monetary shocks impinge on the economy. We show that it is the strength rather than the mere presence of monetary disturbances that accounts for, if the market mechanism fails to achieve allocating efficiency.     

Wealth Distribution and Optimal Inheritance Taxation in Life-cycle Economies with Intergenerational Transfers

Intergenerational transfers are introduced into a general equilibrium life-cycle model in order to explain observed levels of wealth heterogeneity. In our overlapping generations model, heterogenous agents face uncertain lifetime and leave both accidental and voluntary bequests to their children. Furthermore, agents face stochastic employment opportunities. The model is calibrated with regard to the characteristics of the US economy. Our results indicate that bequests only account for a small proportion of observed wealth heterogeneity. The introduction of an inheritance tax increases both welfare, as measured by the average lifetime utility of a newborn, and equality of the wealth distribution.
JEL classification : D 31; D 91; H 21; C 68; E 21     

Segment Reporting： Value and Policy Choice

Evidences indicate that segment reporting has the ability to forecast firms＇ performance and reflect risks of stock market. However, there is no consensus between IAS and FASB on the choice of policy for segment reporting. Based on the analysis of IAS and FASB＇s statements for segment reporting, this paper points out that industry and geography are the two vital bases for determining the segments, and internal organizational structure also should be taken into account. Before segment reporting, a primary segment needs to be identified, and others can be regarded as secondary segments. The information of the segments can be disclosed in the form of supporting statement. This paper also gives a concrete format of segment reporting.     

Bequests, Inter Vivos Transfers, and Wealth Distribution

This paper constructs a heterogeneous agent overlapping generations model with bequests and inter vivos transfers. In the model, households in the same family line behave strategically to determine their consumption, working hours, gifts, and savings. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, the paper measures time preference and parental altruism consistent with the economy's capital-output ratio and the size of intergenerational transfers. The model with intergenerational transfers better explains, although not fully, the wealth distribution of the United States. The paper also analyzes the effects of government policy changes on wealth accumulation, distribution, and social welfare. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D31, D64, D91, H31.