唐山房地产企业现状调查及对房地产业发展的启示

房地产作为国民经济新的增长点,为中国经济的快速增长做出了巨大贡献。在反复研究的基础上,结合唐山地方经济的特点,立足我市房地产业现状,以促进其持续健康发展为宗旨,我们设计了“唐山市房地产企业调查问卷”,试图全面探讨唐山房地产企业需求及其发展前景。调查中,我们得到了许多可贵数据且从中发现了一些弊端与问题,并就此提出几点意见与建议。     

房地产信贷、价格及市场供求关系研究

本文通过对2000年以来上海房地产信贷与房地产市场关系的实证分析,发现房地产信贷对房地产市场的影响主要表现在需求方而不是供应方,房地产信贷增长对房地产价格和房地产销售量增长有明显的促进作用,但对房地产开发投资没有明显的影响。房地产信贷增长主要由银行流动性状况决定,而不取决于房地产市场状况,但房地产市场供需状况会影响到房地产信贷结构变化,在价格上升时个人购房贷款增长明显,在价格下降时开发贷款增长明显。在短期内,银行信贷可作为平稳房地产市场波动的手段之一,但对于长期而言,只有构建完善的住房供应体系才能保持房地产市场的长期稳定。     

进站信号机开放时机的计算

开放进站信号机是车站的基本作业,进站信号机的开放时机对车站通过能力有一定影响,既要尽量减少对车站咽喉区的占用时间,又要保证列车进出站的运行安全。为此提出进站信号机开放时机的计算公式,并按自动闭塞和半自动闭塞区段两种情况,确定进站信号机的开放时机。     

铁路货物输送过程组织方法的研究

分析了我国目前铁路货物输送过程组织中存在的运到期限“不可知”问题,提出了基于我国现行铁路运输组织方式的货物输送过程的组织方法,论述了货物输送过程组织计划的编制方法,并通过对昆明铁路局米轨的应用情况的分析,论证了该组织方法具有实际可行性。     

城市轨道交通对房地产价值影响研究综述

发展城市轨道交通的核心问题是筹集资金,而轨道交通的建设会促进沿线房地产的增值,如何将轨道交通的这种外部效益转化为内部效益是需要进行研究的课题。通过对国内外学者关于轨道交通引起房地产价值增加的研究成果,以及轨道交通与土地利用综合开发的实例论述,结合我国的发展实际与存在问题,提出了基于轨道交通的土地利用、增值与返还策略。     

Valuation of default-sensitive claims under imperfect information

We propose a valuation method for financial assets subject to default risk, where investors cannot observe the state variable triggering the default but observe a correlated price process. The model is sufficiently general to encompass a large class of structural models and can be seen as a generalization of the model of Duffie and Lando (Econometrica 69:633–664, [2001]). In this setting we prove that the default time is totally inaccessible in the market’s filtration and derive the conditional default probabilities and the intensity process. Finally, we provide pricing formulas for default-sensitive claims and illustrate in particular examples the shapes of the credit spreads.      

时间压力下的注册会计师行为——来自一个全国性事务所的调查证据

审计判断是一个复杂的认知活动,对周围的环境非常敏感。在中国,时间压力作为影响审计绩效的环境因素,其重要性日益上升。目前有关时间压力的有限研究主要是针对外国审计市场背景进行的。通过对我国一个全国性事务所的调查,我们发现,近年来我国注册会计师面临的时间压力越来越大。时间压力阻碍了审计程序的实施,低报审计时间,降低了审计质量。     

Industry‐specific Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Japanese Exports and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Using a panel vector autoregression approach and industry breakdown data for financial constraints obtained from the Bank of Japan's Tankan (Short‐Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan) database, this study empirically investigates whether and how Japanese firms' financial constraints (internal and external) influence the response of Japanese sectoral exports to an exchange rate shock. Furthermore, we use the industry‐specific real effective exchange rate data developed by to allow for different movements of real effective exchange rates across industries. It is found that financial constraints have a significant influence on Japanese exports in response to exchange rate shocks. Japanese exporters with either lower internal financial constraints or external financial constraints are less affected by the yen's appreciation. In addition, if firms face high external financial constraints, only reducing the internal financial constraints cannot help them mitigate the impact of the yen's appreciation on their exports. Thus, an accommodative financial environment also plays an important role in alleviating the impact that the yen's appreciation has on Japanese exports.     

The Effects of Central Banks’ Rate Change Patterns on Financial Market Variables

This study examines whether different patterns of change to the benchmark interest rates of central banks are associated with their contributions to variances in the forecast errors of three financial market variables: the long-term interest rate, the foreign exchange rate, and the stock market index. On average, the central bank’s interest rate accounts for approximately 20% of the variance in each variable. We find that the total range of changes is more important than the frequency of changes. The panel regression shows that the range and frequency of policy rate changes is positively associated with the volatility of long-term interest rates but no association with the volatility of stock prices and exchange rates. These results suggest that small and frequent adjustments of policy rates are desirable for reducing the volatility of interest rates. The panel VAR represents interest rate channel is a more important than exchange rate and stock price channel.     

Iterated VaR or CTE measures: A false good idea?

The purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we consider different risk measures in order to determine the solvency capital requirement of a pension fund. Secondly, we illustrate the impact of the time horizon of long-term guarantee products on these capital. We consider a financial market modelled by a common Black–Scholes–Merton model. We neglect the mortality and underwriting risks by assuming that the pension fund is fully hedged against these risks, which allows us to keep understandable and tractable formulæ (the longevity risk will be a part of future researches). A portfolio is built in this market according to different strategies and the pension fund offers a fixed guaranteed rate on a certain time horizon. We begin with well-known static risk measures (value at risk and conditional tail expectation measures) and then we consider their natural dynamic generalization. In order to be time consistent, we consider their iterated versions by a backward iterations scheme. Within the dynamic setting, we show that solvency capital can be expensive and that attention must be paid to the safety level considered.