我国工业化、城市化对能源消费强度的动态效应与区域差异——基于动态面板数据模型的系统广义矩(SYS-GMM)分析方法

基于2002-2012年中国的省际面板数据,将能源消费强度分为低、中和高三个层次,运用动态面板数据模型的系统广义矩(SYS-GMM)分析方法,对工业化、城市化对中国能源消费强度的动态效应与区域差异进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,工业化、城市化水平提高均会导致地区间能源消费强度的增加,但城市化对低能源消费强度区域的影响并不显著,而对高能源消费强度区域的影响却十分明显。此外,上一期的能源消费强度、地区经济发展水平、能源价格和技术创新等均对中国能源消费强度产生不同的影响,而且中国存在技术创新的反弹性效应且能源价格对技术创新有诱致性作用。     

Customs-related Transaction Costs,Firm Size and International Trade Intensity

customs are generally perceived as a time-consuming impediment to international trade. However, few studies have empirically examined the determinants and the impact of this type of government-imposed transaction costs. This paper analyses the role of firm size as a determinant of customs-related transaction costs, as well as the effect of firm size on the relationship between these costs and the international trade intensity of firms. The results of this study indicate that customs-related transaction costs repress international trade activities of firms, even at low levels of these costs. The paper identifies transaction-related economies of scale, simplified customs procedures and advanced information and communication technology as main determinants of customs-related transaction costs. It is shown that when these factors are taken into account, firm size has no effect on customs-related transaction costs. Policy implications are considered for firm strategy and public policy.     

入世后中日制成品贸易发展的实证分析

中国"入世"后,中日贸易的发展与中国其他主要贸易伙伴相比有一定的差距,其占中国对外贸易总额的比重不断下降。为了深入了解中日贸易的发展变化,本文以制成品为研究对象,在国际贸易标准分类的基础上,借助贸易强度指数、互补性指数、产业内贸易指数等进行了定量分析。结果表明,双方紧密的贸易联系和较强的互补性并没有发生改变。只要能妥善处理诸多政治分歧,双方贸易增长还将有很大的潜力。     

An Analysis of the Factor Structure of Jones’ Moral Intensity Construct

In 1991, Jones developed an issue-contingent model of ethical decision making in which moral intensity is posited to affect the four stages of Rest’s 1986 model (awareness, judgment, intention, and behavior). Jones claimed that moral intensity, which is “the extent of issue-related moral imperative in a situation” (p. 372), consists of six characteristics: magnitude of consequences (MC), social consensus (SC), probability of effect (PE), temporal immediacy (TI), proximity (PX), and concentration of effect (CE). This article reports the findings of two studies that analyzed the factor structure of moral intensity, operationalized by a 12-item Perceived Moral Intensity Scale (PMIS) adapted from the work of Singhapakdi et al. [1996, Journal of Business Research, 36, 245–255] and Frey [2000, Journal of Business Ethics, 26, 181–195]. The two items that were purported to measure CE were dropped due to their inability to effectively tap into the characteristic proposed by Jones. Factor analyses of the remaining 10 items supported a 3-factor structure, with the MC, PE, and TI items loading on the first factor, the PX items loading on the second factor, and the SC items loading on the third factor. These factors were labeled: Probable Magnitude of Consequences, Proximity, and Social Consensus. The authors conclude that moral intensity consists of three characteristics, rather than the six posited by Jones.     

The Applicability of a Contingent Factors Model to Accounting Ethics Research

This paper discusses the relevancy of a contingent factors model posited by Jones for conducting accounting ethics research. Using a sample of 37 experienced Australian auditing managers and partners of all of the ‘Big Four’ multinational accounting firms, we find that the contextual model developed by Jones can help guide accounting ethics research by isolating the contingent factors that affect ethical decision making. Moreover, we examine how the factors differ across different accounting settings. Implications for accounting ethics research and accounting practice are then discussed.Jeffrey R. Cohen, PhD is an Associate Professor at the Carroll School of management at Boston College. His research focuses primarily on behavioral ethics issues as well as investigating governance from a behavioral perspective.Nonna Martinov Bennie is a Senior Lecturer at Sydney University. Her research focuses on ethical issues in auditing as well as issues surrounding materiality judgments.     

The Effect of Moral Intensity on Ethical Judgment

Following an extensive review of the moral intensity literature, this article reports the findings of two studies (one between-subjects, the other within-subject) that examined the effect of manipulated and perceived moral intensity on ethical judgment. In the between-subjects study participants judged actions taken in manipulated high moral intensity scenarios to be more unethical than the same actions taken in manipulated low moral intensity scenarios. Findings were mixed for the effect of perceived moral intensity. Both probable magnitude of consequences (a factor consisting of magnitude of consequences, probability of effect, and temporal immediacy) and social consensus had a significant effect; proximity did not. In the within-subject study manipulated moral intensity had a significant effect on ethical judgment, but perceived moral intensity did not. Regression of ethical judgment on age, gender, major, and the three perceived moral intensity factors was significant between-subjects, but not within-subject. Ethical judgment was found to be a more robust predictor of intention than perceived moral intensity using a within-subject design. Joan M. McMahon is an Assistant Professor of Management in the Luter School of Business at Christopher Newport University, teaching courses in Organizational Behavior, Leadership, and Human Resources. She has a B.A. in Speech from the State University of New York, College at Oneonta; an M. Ed. in Early Childhood Education from James Madison University; and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Industrial/Organizational Psychology from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Robert J. Harvey is an Associate Professor of Psychology at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. He has a B.A. in Psychology and an M.A. in Experimental Psychology from the University of Missouri at Kansas City, and a Ph.D. in Industrial/Organizational Psychology from Ohio State University. Dr. Harvey has authored a number of articles in the Journal of Applied Psychology, the Journal of Personality Assessment, Personnel Psychology, and others. He is the author of the chapter on job analysis in the Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology.     

布莱克—斯科尔斯期权定价公式的推导及推广

Black-Scholes期权定价模型是金融学中广泛应用的模型之一,该模型的提出是金融理论界和实践界的一场革命。Black、Scholes和Merton引入了动态套期保值组合的概念,期权的支付可以通过基础资产的动态组合策略复制。通过对期权定价理论的历史介绍及对该公式的几种推导方法进行分析,说明在其他金融衍生产品定价中的推广应用。     

广东省城市流强度与结构的动态变化分析

依据城市流强度分析方法,对2005年和2010年广东省21个地级市的区位熵、外向功能量、城市流强度、及其结构进行测算和分析。结果表明:①两个时段内广东省各城市的城市流强度逐步增强,但城市间及城市内部产业部门分配上差距较大;②城市间经济联系不够紧密,以广州、深圳为中心呈现核心-外围的空间结构;③各城市总体经济实力和城市综合服务能力之间尚不协调,多数城市总体经济实力较低;④2010年广东省的东翼、西翼和北部山区出现了主导型城市,小范围的区域经济发展的潜力巨大。据此提出了提高广东省城市流强度的对策,服务于广东省的经济发展。     

长历时暴雨强度公式的推求方法

近年来,随着极端暴雨事件的出现,导致城市内涝灾害频繁发生,原有降雨历时仅为2h的市政排水设计暴雨强度公式已无法满足城市暴雨设计的需求,因此就要延长暴雨采样历时,推求出长历时(24h)暴雨强度公式。针对以上问题,根据北京市提供的52a(1961-2012)原始降雨资料并进行数字化处理,结合水利的长历时特点,采用兼顾市政排水,水利排涝,内涝防治的采样方法,应用P-Ⅲ分布曲线进行频率分析后采用6种经典方法推求暴雨强度公式的参数值,优选出误差最小且满足规范要求的暴雨强度公式参数值,进而推求长历时暴雨强度公式,在此基础上与短历时暴雨强度公式比较,分析两者的差异,为城市雨水排除规划设计提供科学依据和参考。     

工业适度重型化背景下的低碳路径选择：基于广东工业的实证分析

对工业适度重型化背景下的高碳发展惯性特征进行分析和预测,并以广东为重点,利用对数平均权重分解法（ LMDI）研究工业能源消费历史碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明,广东工业重型化和高碳化在未来一段时期仍将处于惯性高位区间,工业碳排放峰值预计出现在2025年左右;由技术进步诱发的能源效率提升是过去十多年来碳排放增长减缓的主要影响因素,而产业结构和能源结构调整尚未发挥足够的降碳效应。结合广东工业适度重型化发展特征,研究认为,能源效率提升仍是现阶段广东工业碳减排的主要途径。随着技术进步效应的边际递减,中远期碳减排的主要动力源于产业结构和能源结构的优化。