Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation

This paper examines whether the explanatory power of exchange rate models can be improved by allowing for cross-country asymmetries and non-linear effects of fundamentals. Both appear to be crucial. The samples include the USD versus pound and yen from 1982:10 to 2013:10, and automated model selection is conducted with indicator saturation. Several non-linear effects are significant at 1%. Further, many of the indicators present in the linear models are eliminated once allowing for non-linearities; suggesting some of the structural breaks found in previous work were an artifact of the misspecified linear functional form. These conclusions are robust to estimation using principal components.     

Negotiating climate change responses: Regional and local perspectives on transport and coastal zone planning in South Sweden

Putting climate change policy-integration into practice is challenged by problems of institutional misfit, due to, inter alia, deficient vertical administrative interplay. While most focus within the field of climate change research has targeted the national–local interplay, less is known about the interface of regional and local perspectives. Here, the aim is to study that interface with a specific focus on the relation between regional and local spatial planning actors, through a case-study of transport and coastal zone management in a Swedish municipality. The article is based on interviews (focus group and single in-depth) and official planning documents. The material reveals a tricky planning situation, replete with conflict. In practice, various institutional frameworks, claims and ambitions collide. The attempts to steer the local spatial planning initiatives from the regional level led to conflicts, which in turn seems to have hampered the overall work for climate change management through spatial planning. Furthermore, there are few traces of prospects of a smooth vertical institutional interplay able to support the overall aims related to integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation in spatial planning.     

Tourism at Costalegre,Mexico: An ecosystem services-based exploration of current challenges and alternative futures

Tourism, as all human activities, is dependent on the natural environment and its respective ecosystem services (ES). Different user groups manage and consume these touristic ES differently, resulting in discrepancies and potential conflicts. Despite the urgency to find inclusive local approaches for sustainable development, tourism studies still analyze socio-economic and ecological impacts separately and lack integrated social–ecological approaches to improve foresight in tourism planning. Based on a growing concern regarding the future of Costalegre on the Jalisco coast of Western Mexico, we analyze through interviews, surveys, and participant observation the dependence of tourism on specific ecosystem services and conduct a scenario analysis which shows present and future implications for the social–ecological system. Furthermore, this analysis shows in detail how different scenarios change ES provision and people's livelihoods. Key findings include identifying freshwater provision and cultural ES as the most important touristic ES. At a regional scale, peasants in ejidos are the main ES stewards, whereas high-class tourism facilities constitute important local stewards. Benefits, mainly access to freshwater and the beach, are unequally distributed, provoking conflicts among different ES user groups that may escalate in the near future. Improved communication between all user groups and strengthening of key political actors seem to be the most immediate recommendations to ensure the long term sustainability of this particular region. This work may contribute to improved planning and decision-making as our ES based scenarios are a first step to integrate social–ecological knowledge into improved decision-making. At a local scale, the study reveals the most likely future development options and their social and ecological consequences. It could also serve as a baseline for informed policy making.     

All consuming surveillance: surveillance as marketplace icon

With consumers and their activities routinely visible through online, mobile and social media, to both their peers and to corporations, this article examines surveillance as a marketplace icon. Surveillance is central to the construction of consumers and markets. Many contemporary marketing practices are surveillant as they rely on the collection, analysis and application of consumer data to place advertising, define market segments and to nudge consumer behaviours. Consumer surveillance is also an enactment of corporate power, attempting to align individual preferences with corporate goals. The historical origins of surveillance and the emergence of the surveillance–industrial–entertainment complex are explored, which highlights how surveillance, as well as a process for defining markets is also an object of consumption. The future sees a huge struggle for consumer data between two great centres of surveillance power – the state and the corporation – as they battle over data use for national security.     

Improving footprint calculations of small open economies: combining local with multi-regional input–output tables

In a small, open and resource-poor economy, import and export dependency have an ever-growing impact on local policy decisions, which makes local (environmental) policy-makers increasingly depend on global data. This increases the interest in models that link local production and consumption data to global production, trade and environmental data. The recent increase in availability of global environmentally extended multi-regional input-output tables (EE-MRIO tables) provides an opportunity to link them with existing local environmentally extended input-output tables (EE-RIO tables). These combined tables make it possible (1) to analyse the links between local and global production and consumption and (2) to study global value chains, material use and environmental impacts simultaneously. However, estimations using input-output (I–O) analyses contain errors due to imperfect databases. In this article the magnitude of specification, aggregation and time errors are estimated and compared. The results show the need to combine local datasets with multi-regional ones and show that highest detailed (country and sector levels) as well as time series of I–O tables are the way forward for using I–O analyses in local policy-making. The paper provides guidance on trading off investments in model adoption and/or extension and the reliability of estimation results.     

Constructive and computable Hahn–Banach theorems for the (second) fundamental theorem of welfare economics

The Hahn–Banach Theorem plays a crucial role in the second fundamental theorem of welfare economics. To date, all mathematical economics and advanced general equilibrium textbooks concentrate on using non-constructive or incomputable versions of this celebrated theorem. In this paper we argue for the introduction of constructive or computable Hahn–Banach theorems in mathematical economics and advanced general equilibrium theory. The suggested modification would make applied and policy-oriented economics intrinsically computational.     

E-Shopping Patterns of Chinese and US Millennials

A conceptually based taxonomy of 22 distinct forms of e-shopping vehicles is proposed. A modification of the UTAUT and UTAUT2 models is introduced to explain how vehicles are interrelated in regard to consumer reliance upon them for their e-purchasing. A survey of over 1,000 millennial university students, 697 Chinese and 306 US, revealed strong support in both samples for the hypothesized six dimensional pattern underlying consumer vehicular reliance. Further, differences between Chinese and US samples lay not in the nature of the dimensions, but rather in the strength of reliance upon each dimension. Thus, the study demonstrates the utility of the concept/measure of shopper vehicular reliance, VPR (Vehicle Purchasing Reliance) for both practitioners and scientists. In cross-national comparisons, observed differences between samples in strength of reliance supported four of five hypotheses predicated on previously established national distinctions a) in trust and b) in the cultural value of individualism-collectivism.     

The nexus between competition and efficiency: The European banking industries experience

In this paper, we investigate competition in banking systems in the EU27 as a whole for the period 2004–2010, but also for old members’ banking systems compared with new members’ banking systems and for banking systems from countries member of euro zone compares with banking systems from countries non-member of euro zone. In order to investigate this issue, we estimate a non-structural indicator of banking competition, using the H-statistic indicator that is estimated using bank-level data. Also, we apply two tests of convergence, β- and σ-convergence, for assessing competition evolution during the specified period. We want to fill the gap in the banking literature testing the validity of the Competition–Efficiency Hypothesis, analysing the impact of the banking competition measures on two alternative measures of efficiency, cost and profit efficiency, in the European banking systems in a Granger-causality manner. The results confirm us that in the EU the convergence process occur from the banking systems with higher competition level than the mean score of all countries. The evidence for all groups of countries, except non-euro zone group, where results are not statistically significant, confirm the Competition–Efficiency Hypothesis in terms of cost and profit efficiency.     

Trade credit and the joint effects of supplier and customer financial characteristics

We examine how access to bank credit affects trade credit in the supplier–customer relationships of U.S. public firms. For identification, we use exogenous liquidity shocks to supplier firms in the form of staggered changes to interstate bank branching laws. Using a variety of tests, we show that supplier firms with greater access to banking liquidity offer more trade credit to their customers. We also show that when bank branching restrictions are relaxed in the supplier’s state, the supplier–customer relationship is more likely to survive.     

Public system usability analysis for the valuation of cognitive burden and interface standardization: A case study of cross-ATM design

Humans are unable to effectively handle machines that have poor interface and interaction patterns. The Automated Teller Machine (ATM) is one of the machines that is most frequently operated by a wide spectrum of people. Hence, it is common to apply Human–Computer Interaction (HCI) technology in the design of ATMs. User–ATM interaction, however, has barriers such as a user’s working memory limit, lower literacy level, or lack of awareness and access. Moreover, the diversity of interfaces hurt user motivation, perception, and experience significantly. For example, each bank has its own ATM design targeting its customers only and, thus, when clients of other banks come across such a machine, they suffer from cognitive burden and commit many errors. To this end, we conduct an analytical survey of ATMs used in Pakistan through user analysis and heuristics analysis. We figure out the influence of design diversity and user perception on ATM users’ cognitive stress with the cognitive walkthrough analysis on the survey. We also uncover a realism-usability gap by reviewing the sampled ATM screens from the viewpoint of HCI heuristics. Finally, we suggest the guidelines on the cross-ATM design, characterized by the standardized fast-cash menu and the fail-safe mechanism for novices. This study demonstrates that users are reluctant to switch out of their comfort zones, due to learning costs and a lack of motivation. Therefore, we should design public systems in a very standardized way, which becomes more crucial for a user’s cognitive relief as interface and design patterns are becoming more diverse in our daily lives.