Simulating the Evolution of the Implied Distribution

Motivated by the implied stochastic volatility literature (Britten–Jones and Neuberger, forthcoming; Derman and Kani, 1997; Ledoit and Santa–Clara, 1998) this paper proposes a new and general method for constructing smile–consistent stochastic volatility models. The method is developed by recognising that option pricing and hedging can be accomplished via the simulation of the implied risk neutral distribution. We devise an algorithm for the simulation of the implied distribution, when the first two moments change over time. The algorithm can be implemented easily, and it is based on an economic interpretation of the concept of mixture of distributions. It can also be generalised to cases where more complicated forms for the mixture are assumed.     

树立和落实科学发展观--以中地集团的实践为例

科学发展观的内涵极为丰富 ,涉及经济、政治、文化、社会发展各个领域 ,既有生产力和经济基础问题 ,又有生产关系和上层建筑问题 ;既管当前 ,又管长远 ;既是重大的理论问题 ,又是重大的实践问题。中地集团树立和落实科学发展观的实践 :(1)较长时间内保持高速度的、有效益的经济总量增长 ;(2 )明确企业定位 ;(3)加快体制机制改革的步伐 ;(4 )营造良好的人文环境 ;(5 )弘扬优秀的企业文化     

Strategic knowledge sharing in Bayesian games

This paper provides a model for the study of direct, public and strategic knowledge sharing in Bayesian games. We propose an equilibrium concept which takes into account communication possibilities of exogenously certifiable statements and in which beliefs off the equilibrium path are explicitly deduced from consistent possibility correspondences, without making reference to perturbed games. Properties of such an equilibrium and of revised knowledge are examined. In particular, it is shown that our equilibrium is always a sequential equilibrium of the associated extensive form game with communication. Finally, sufficient conditions for the existence of perfectly revealing or non-revealing equilibria are characterized in some classes of games. Several examples and economic applications are investigated.     

Income and substitution effects of fiscal policy on work effort

The focus of this paper is twofold. First, it examines the impact on work effort of changes in government purchases financed with lump‐sum taxes, in a neoclassical framework, with respect to four industrialised countries. Second, it reconsiders the expenditure–work effort relationship in a broader conceptual context that allows for distortionary taxation and a disaggregation of the income and substitution effects. Our findings are shown to cast doubt on the empirical plausibility of the prevailing (neoclassical and New Keynesian) models which seem to rely heavily on the lump‐sum tax notion, thus ignoring the substitution effects of distortionary taxation.     

中石油存续公司财务管理模式初探

文章通过综合分析各类影响因素，并借鉴历史经验教训，考虑其现实条件和管理要求，认为中石油存续公司适宜采取集权式财务管理。并从财务机制、财务制度等方面进行改革和创新，制定并实施相关的保证措施，以确保集权式财务管理体制能够有效运行。     

工程投标报价的优化

在报价低者为优的评标规则下，报价、中标可得利润与中标概率总是成反比，最优报价为中标可得利润与中标概率的乘积最大时所对应的报价。结合案例详细分析了只有一个具体竞争对手，有若干具体竞争对手，已知对手数目但不知具体对象，既不知对手数目也不知具体对象四种情况下的报价决策方法。     

The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth

Reduced exchange rate volatility and higher and less heterogeneous quality of institutional rules and macroeconomic policies are two of the main (anticipated and concurring) effects expected from a currency union.In this paper, we measure the magnitude of these two effects for the Eurozone countries looking at real effective exchange rates (REER) and at different indicators of quality of institutional rules and macroeconomic policies (QIRMP). We find that the first effect is much stronger than the second when we compare relative changes for Eurozone countries and the rest of the world in the relevant period.We further evaluate the impact of both effects on economic growth on a larger sample of countries. Our findings show that both have significant impact on levels (more robust) and on rates of growth (weaker) of per capita GDP.     

我国经济发展水平与劳动力就业数量关系研究——兼论我国劳动力资源是否过剩

我国劳动力对经济发展而言，其生产率高于资本，因而经济发展对劳动力就业的促进作用逐渐减弱（经济增长的就业弹性逐渐变小）。据测算，我国2013年以前劳动力就业压力很大，2015年以后劳动力又会供不应求。所以，我国未来经济发展中，2014年前后应采用不同的产业结构调整策略来充分满足劳动力就业的要求。     

票据无权代理追认制度微探

票据行为是一种法律行为，自然也可以以代理方式为之。民法上有关代理制度的规则一般也都可以适用于票据代理行为。但由于民法与商事法的立法旨趣各有侧重，为促进票据流通、保障交易安全，票据代理不能照搬民法上关于代理制度的规定。票据的无权代理是票据代理中一个非常典型的问题，与民法上的无权代理区别很大，其中存在的问题很多。对于票据的无权代理中是否应当赋予本人以追认权，多数大陆法系国家的立法例与英美法系国家之立法例有所不同。     

区域经济一体化在构建大牡丹江战略中的实践

十七大报告、牡丹江市第十次党代会报告和十届四次全会报告中都提到区域经济协调发展的问题,这是一个关系国家、地区发展的重要战略。本文结合三个报告和大牡丹江战略来阐述区域经济一体化在牡丹江的实践。