The Asian Crisis,Gender, and the International Financial Architecture

This paper begins with an account of the Asian crisis, its creation and management by international financial institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank), and the gender impact of their stabilization and structural adjustment programs. Next we consider the new debate on reforming the IMF and the World Bank and restructuring the international financial architecture to prevent crises and manage them more effectively. Finally, we consider the gender ramifications of these changes. Since feminists have been absent from this debate, we examine issues essential to the formation of a gender-conscious international financial structure.     

基于信用配置的中国基金公司选股策略优化研究——来自层次分析法的理论与实证

传统的选股策略忽视信用配置原则,导致基金公司风险与收益之间无法有效匹配,不利于证券市场的稳定发展.对此,基于信用配置原则,运用层次分析法设计了基金公司选股策略的评价指标体系,构建了基金公司选股策略的评价模型,并以此为基础,选取相关样本股票,对基金公司选股策略进行了实证分析.研究发现,基于信用配置的股票组合资产,其收益明显高于大盘指数,足以说明该选股策略具有显著的优化效应.     

宏观型对冲基金独领风骚的制度分析

宏观型对冲基金根据经济基本趋势和金融市场发展方向有意识地在主要资本市场或衍生市场持有多头或空头头寸以获取风险收益。宏观型对冲基金既有丰厚的盈利,也有巨额的亏损,一切取决于预期判断的正确与否。宏观型对冲基金与金融风险是连体共生的。     

Comparing forecasts from fixed and variable coefficient models: The case of money demand

In this paper we introduce a class of tentatively plausible, fixed-coefficient models of money demand and evaluate their forecast performance. When these models are reestimated allowing all coefficients to vary over time, the forecasting performance improves dramatically. Aside from offering insights about improved methods of analyzing time series data, the most promising direct use for point estimates derived from time-varying coefficients is as an aid in calibrating proposed models of the kind discussed here.     

钢铁联合研究基金资助与可持续发展的思考

钢铁联合基金是我国国有企业与国家自然科学基金委联合出资建立的专项研究基金,该项基金的设立实现了企业与高校的资源共享.但该研究基金实施三年来,在项目管理等方面存在诸多问题,因此,应在明确行业特点、保证项目质量、加强合作等方面做进一步的改善.     

对完善我国开放式基金费用信息披露制度的思考

本文从经济学的角度分析了基金费用对基金持有人的重要性,而开放式基金的赎回机制并不能有效解决开放式基金运作上的利益冲突———基金管理收费的最大化和持有人费用最小化的冲突。为此,本文在介绍了美国基金费用信息披露的有关制度之后,详细研究了完善我国开放式基金费用信息披露的对策。     

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model, which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for hierarchical and for Minnesota-type priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.     

On the Choice of Superannuation Funds in Australia

Using a sample of Australian retail and wholesale superannuation funds to proxy for choice and limited choice alternatives, respectively, we investigate the costs and benefits of providing choice to investors. We find that investors who have choice don't respond to fees. Also, loads - typical of the choice environment - are likely to be a dead-weight loss borne by investors. Employees who involuntarily contribute to (employer) funds, tend to pay the lowest fees. Given these results, the advantages of choice become questionable. Our results show that managers of limited choice funds achieve greater positive abnormal returns than retail fund managers. The analysis of flows provides insight into why choice funds do not perform better than limited choice funds. Investors are not responding to historical performance as predicted.     

Empirical evidence on individual, group and shrinkage seasonal indices

This paper provides empirical evidence on forecasting seasonal demand using both individual and group seasonal indices methods. The findings show that the group seasonal indices methods outperform the individual seasonal indices method. This paper also offers empirical results from comparing two shrinkage methods with the group seasonal indices methods. The theoretical rules developed by the authors for choosing between group seasonal indices and individual seasonal indices produce more accurate forecasts than do published rules for choosing between shrinkage methods, when measured by the MSE, and are competitive when measured by the symmetric MAPE.     

Which firms engage small, foreign, or state banks? And who goes Islamic? Evidence from Turkey

We study a representative dataset from Turkey that identifies firm–bank connections. Banks in Turkey differ not only in size and nationality, but also in ownership and orientation (non-Islamic versus Islamic)—resulting in at least six distinct bank types. We estimate a multinomial logit of the choice by the firm of bank type. We document a strong correspondence between bank type and firm characteristics that is not always the same as has been documented so far for US datasets. For example, small firms engage large rather than small banks. Young, large, multiple-bank, and industry-diversified firms, that are located in or close to Istanbul, team up with foreign banks. Islamic banks mainly deal with young, multiple-bank, industry-focused and transparent firms.