分析新生儿感染性肺炎的诊断与治疗

目的探讨分析新生儿感染性肺炎的诊断和有效治疗方法。方法对我院在2009年3月-2011年3月间收治的102例新生儿感染性肺炎患者临床资料进行回顾性分析,总结分析新生儿感染性肺炎的诊断和治疗方法。结果经过治疗后102例患者中有显效71例,有效23例,无效为8例,总有效率达到92.2%。结论新生儿感染性肺炎临床表现多样,经过以抗感染为主的治疗后,临床疗效明显,值得在临床上推广。     

沥青混凝土路面工程病害及防治技术浅析

本文对沥青混凝土路面出现的主要病害进行简要的分析,并简要介绍了其防治技术及措施。     

Budget impact analysis of orphan drugs in Belgium: estimates from 2008 to 2013

Objective: This article aims to calculate the impact of orphan drugs on the Belgian drug budget in 2008 and to forecast its impact over the following 5 years.

Method: The 2008 budget impact was calculated by triangulating information derived from multiple Belgian data sources. The 2008–2013 budget impact analysis was based on three scenarios reflecting different levels of growth in the number of registered orphan drugs in the European Union, the number of drugs reimbursed in Belgium, and the average annual cost per patient per drug in Belgium.

Results: The orphan drug budget impact amounted to €66.2 million (or 5% of the Belgian hospital drug budget) in 2008. The impact would increase to €130–204 million in 2013, depending on the scenario.

Conclusions: This static analysis measured orphan drug costs only, assuming that other components of health expenditure do not change over time. The analysis showed that the budget impact of orphan drugs in Belgium is substantial and rising, thereby putting pressure on total drug expenditure. Policy options to address the rising budget impact include pricing linked to return on investment, risk-sharing arrangements and re-appraisal of orphan drug status if additional indications are approved.     

破解无诉讼行为能力人参加民事诉讼的法律难题——以规范司法精神病鉴定为路径

诉讼行为能力是具有诉讼权利能力的人实行有效诉讼行为的一种能力或资格。但诉讼行为能力究竟应如何科学的分类;在司法实践中,如何运用司法精神病鉴定对无诉讼行为能力及诉讼行为的效力进行了认定等问题,我国民事诉讼理论和实务却很少关注。为确保当事人正当诉讼行为的实施,文章对诉讼行为能力这一基本问题进行深入探讨,认为无诉讼行为能力人是否能参加民事诉讼,应对案件受理前、案件受理后两种情形做不同处理。     

The impact of infectious diseases on hotel occupancy rate based on independent component analysis

The recent global outbreak of Influenza A (H1N1), or the more commonly known as swine flu, has negatively affected the tourism and hospitality industries in many countries. This article reports a study that applied independent component analysis, a novel statistical technique, to separate the dominant factors which determine the levels of hotel occupancy rates in Hong Kong. Empirical findings would provide useful insights on how the dynamic lodging demand reacts to epidemics based on the severity and duration of the events.     

香石竹丰产种植技术

文章通过对香石竹的栽培生产以及特征,对香石竹在栽培生产中涉及到的土壤、定植、扦插繁殖、组织培养等一系列问题进行了分析,尤其是对香石竹病虫害中枯萎病危害、叶斑病危害、灰霉病危害、病毒病危害、桃蚜危害进行了全面的分析阐述,已达到对香石竹更好的栽培。     

热断层（TTM）技术作为口岸传染病自动筛查手段的探讨

目的探讨TTM扫描成像在口岸传染病监测工作中的适用价值。方法总结口岸现行以红外测温为基础的传染病筛查模式存在的不足,深入分析TTM技术的优势,结合北京检验检疫局应用TTM技术筛查口岸常见传染病的研究成果,探讨TTM技术作为口岸一种传染病自动筛查手段的可行性。结果经对比现场红外测温筛查手段和TTM技术手段,结合北京检验检疫局的探索性研究和初步应用,TTM技术口岸常见传染病具有很高的阳性检出率并完全满足疾病筛查的要求。结论热断层技术在作为口岸传染病一种自动筛查手段具有较高的推广应用价值。     

Short-term Covid-19 forecast for latecomers

The number of new Covid-19 cases is still high in several countries, despite vaccination efforts. A number of countries are experiencing new and severe waves of infection. Therefore, the availability of reliable forecasts for the number of cases and deaths in the coming days is of fundamental importance. We propose a simple statistical method for short-term real-time forecasting of the number of Covid-19 cases and fatalities in countries that are latecomers—i.e., countries where cases of the disease started to appear some time after others. In particular, we propose a penalized LASSO regression model with an error correction mechanism to construct a model of a latecomer country in terms of other countries that were at a similar stage of the pandemic some days before. By tracking the number of cases in those countries, we use an adaptive rolling-window scheme to forecast the number of cases and deaths in the latecomer. We apply this methodology to 45 countries and we provide detailed results for four of them: Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Portugal. We show that the methodology performs very well when compared to alternative methods. These forecasts aim to foster better short-run management of the healthcare system and can be applied not only to countries but also to different regions within a country. Finally, the modeling framework derived in the paper can be applied to other infectious diseases.     

非农兼业、耕地特征与农业社会化服务需求意愿——以病虫害专业化统防统治为例

基于安徽省粮食主产区农户的实地调查数据,利用多项Logit模型的研究发现农药施用决策者的非农就业状况是影响小规模农户病虫害专业化统防统治服务需求意愿的主要因素:非农业就业距离越远、时间越长、收入越高的农户,购买"承包防治"意愿越强;而种植大户倾向于选择"代防代治"方式解决临时性、季节性的农药施用劳动力短缺;但农户个体特征变量对病虫害专业化统防统治服务需求意愿影响不显著。