Toward a Taylor rule for fiscal policy

In DSGE models, fiscal policy is typically described by simple rules in which tax rates respond to the level of output. We show that there is only weak empirical evidence in favor of such specifications in US data. Instead, the cyclical movements of labor and capital income tax rates are better described by a contemporaneous response to hours worked and investment, respectively. We show that conditioning on these variables is also desirable from a normative perspective as it significantly improves welfare relative to output-based rules.     

Variable preference relations: Existence of maximal elements

We consider variable preference relations, also called reference dependent preference relations, which are typical in the study of dynamic models in economic theories. We introduce a new concept of weak consistency, a generalization of acyclicity, as an immediate regret condition for variable preferences. The main result to establish is on an existence criterion for maximal elements of a space equipped with a weakly consistent variable preference relation. It is expressed via a preference completeness condition which is equivalent to existence of aspiration points. As applications, we show that a number of results known in the recent literature on maximum principles on a space with or without topological structure can be obtained from the unifying approach of this paper. Habit formation and state functions are also discussed in the framework of variable preference relations.     

Instrumental cardinal concerns for social status in two-sided matching with non-transferable utility

In this paper we apply the instrumental approach to social preferences in order to distinguish among various shapes of preferences for social status. In particular, we consider the shape of reduced preferences that emerge in the equilibrium of a two-sided matching model with non-transferable utility. Cole et al., 1992, Cole et al., 1995 show that, under full observability of potential mates׳ attributes, instrumental concerns for social status are ordinal, i.e., only one׳s own rank in the distribution of attributes matters. We show that when we depart from full observability, instrumental concerns for social status become cardinal, i.e., also other features of the distribution of attributes matter. We also show that the actual shape of cardinal concerns depends on how individuals can deal with the informational asymmetry, alternatively leading to upward concerns, i.e., making comparisons with higher rank people; downward concerns, i.e., making comparisons with lower rank people; or bidirectional concerns, i.e, being both upward and downward.     

Restructuring Public Transit Systems: Evidence on Cost Properties from Medium and Large-Sized Companies

This paper analyses the cost structure of a sample of local public transport companies operating in medium and large urban centres in Italy in order to identify the proper network configuration for the service. Technological characteristics of public transit systems are analysed by estimating both variable and total cost function models. The evidence shows the presence of short-run and long-run economies of scale, as well as of economies of network density. This suggests that a suitable network design should at least include a large urban centre, while a regulatory policy aimed at fragmenting the served area would imply an efficiency loss.      

文本中的会计变量及属性分析

会计文本是会计变量的集成,研究文本中的会计变量特性及其属性有助于对会计变量的设置及属性的说明。探讨会计变量及其属性,以说明不同会计变量及其属性特征描述的合理性,反映不同变量的信息含量。     

Exact aggregation under summability and homogeneity with individually variable prices

Exact aggregation of a system of individual expenditure functions with a single, individually variable price is analyzed. It is shown, under summability and homogeneity, that the individual and aggregate expenditure functions must take one of two specific functional forms.     

基于可变精度粗糙集模型的上市公司财务困境预测

基于可变精度粗糙集模型对上市公司财务困境预测进行的研究表明,可变精度粗糙集模型对ST公司的预测准确度达到了85%,对正常公司的预测准确度达到了65%,总的预测准确度达到了75%;而将ST公司误判为正常公司的错误率为15%,将正常公司误判为ST公司的错误率为35%,平均误判率为25%.因此总体而言,可变精度粗糙集模型具有较好的预测能力.     

Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited

An increasing number of longitudinal data sets collect expectations information regarding a variety of future individual level events and decisions, providing researchers with the opportunity to explore expectations over micro variables in detail. We present a theoretical framework and an econometric methodology to use that type of information to test the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis in models of individual behavior. This RE assumption at the micro level underlies a majority of the research in applied fields in economics, and it is the common foundation of most work in dynamic models of individual behavior. We present tests of three different types of expectations using two different panel data sets that represent two very different populations. In all three cases we cannot reject the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics, and other disciplines, that assume rational behavior. We would like to acknowledge outstanding research assistance from Huan Ni. The Michigan Retirement Research Center (MRRC) and the TIAA-CREF Institute made this research possible through their financial support of two related projects. Benítez-Silva also acknowledges the financial support from NIH grant AG1298502 on a related project, and also from the Fundación BBVA, and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through project number SEJ2005-08783-C04-01, and wants to thank the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland and the Department of Economics at Universitat Pompeu Fabra for their hospitality during the completion of this paper. Three anonymous referees provided excellent comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are the authors’.     

Towards a framework to understand purpose in Futures Studies: The role of Vickers' Appreciative System

There have been comments recently about the efficacy of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects, relating to confusion on knowledge aggregation and methodology, which can be summarised in the question: “how to determine the purpose of such projects”. The lack of a purpose framework makes it difficult for ‘clients’ initiating such projects to determine if outcomes meet their original expectations. This paper proposes a framework to help understand the nature, objective and purpose of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects, which we will argue helps to overcome these concerns. The proposed framework is based on Vickers' definition of an Appreciative System, highlighting how decision making involves three areas of judgment — reality judgment, value judgment, and instrumental judgment. It will be argued that decision-makers and policymakers call for Futures Studies projects when they become aware of an organizational deficiency in one or more of these areas.Each element, alone or in combination, could form the basis of a purpose definition for a Futures Studies project, and, therefore, needs to be considered to ensure that the project meets client expectations and is experienced as purposeful and rewarding. The paper elaborates on each of the three elements, and then discusses their integrated nature. This is followed by a discussion of the implications of Appreciative System theory for three key players in the decision making process, the organizational leadership, the professionals and the organization at large involved in the practice of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects.     

An institutional analysis of voter turnout: the role of primary type and the expressive and instrumental voting hypotheses

Recent events highlight primary type as an institutional variable that merits further examination in the economics literature on voter turnout. Using panel data for U.S. gubernatorial elections and treating primary type as a proxy for candidate deviation from the median voter, we test whether primary type changes voter turnout and whether that change is dominated by instrumental or expressive voting. The results show that states with more open primaries tend to have greater voter turnout in general elections, and that this increase reflects the effect of open primaries on expressive voting.