焦点企业知识存量对联盟组合分裂断层的影响：知识转移效率的中介作用

运用断层理论，从知识获取和关系治理角度，分析焦点企业知识存量如何影响联盟组合分裂断层及分裂断层形成机理。基于焦点企业知识存量、分裂断层、知识转移效率、情景嵌入性之间的关系理论模型框架，认为焦点企业知识存量能够影响联盟组合分裂断层，其中，知识转移效率在这一过程中发挥中介效应，情景嵌入性发挥调节效应。结果发现：焦点企业知识存量与分裂断层之间存在显著负相关关系；知识转移效率能够部分中介焦点企业知识存量与分裂断层之间的关系；情景嵌入性能够正向调节焦点企业知识存量与知识转移效率之间的关系。     

Portfolio constraints,differences in beliefs and bubbles

I propose an arbitrage-based theory of bubbles in economies with general portfolio constraints and differences in beliefs. I find that, in general, bubbles cannot exist unless the constraints restrict the demand for credit sufficiently to induce low interest rates. Speculation due to heterogeneous beliefs does not cause bubbles. Ruling out bubbles under asymmetric information requires stronger assumptions: the presence of some uninformed agents and mild portfolio restrictions (debt or borrowing constraints), or alternatively, the existence of some impatient and fully informed agents.     

Financing investment in East Asia: Regional or global savings?

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic investment in East Asian countries is financed by domestic, (East Asian) regional and global savings in order to infer the relative importance of regional vs. global capital markets in East Asia. Panel regression results show that regional saving in East Asia plays a much more important role than global saving in financing investment in the region. The results suggest that global capital flows, despite its huge volume in East Asia, does not contribute to proper investment financing. The results also show that Japanese saving has significant effects on regional investment but Chinese saving does not.     

Implementing efficient conservation portfolio design

Modern tools for cost-effective conservation reserve site planning require the planner to have information about spatial distributions of conservation costs and benefits. Climate change creates unprecedented uncertainty about future land values and species habitat ranges, such that conservation scientists cannot map costs and benefits with certainty anymore. This paper contributes to the literature on the economics of conservation in the face of climate change uncertainty. It advances a new method for using modern portfolio theory to choose lands to protect that yield total conservation returns with less uncertainty. It explores the implications for portfolio recommendations of variation in the correlations between ecological and land-value responses to climate change. It also tests the robustness of the method to shortcuts that might be taken to simplify analysis, identifying problems that arise if conservation costs are ignored in portfolio analysis and demonstrating when portfolio recommendations are sensitive to how ecological benefits are quantified.     

印度资本项目可兑换的经验与启示

印度自1991年以来积极推进资本项目可兑换。经过20年的实践,印度迅速融入国际金融市场,有效抵御了金融危机的冲击,资本项目可兑换取得明显成效,主要特点：一是采取渐进、审慎的方式推进资本项目可兑换;二是坚持控制的主动性和必要时恢复管制的灵活性;三是深化金融改革,为资本项目可兑换创造良好的外部条件;四是注重通过宏观调控手段,优化资本流动结构,解决资本流动中产生的问题;五是加强短期资本流动管制,防止短期资本流动对经济的冲击;六是加强房地产资本管制,防止国际投机资本引发房地产风险。     

Currency intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese lessons

This paper extends the analysis of Bernanke et al. (2004) to show that the official Japanese purchases of foreign exchange in 2003–04 seem to have lowered long-term interest rates not only in the United States, but in a wide range of countries, including Japan. It seems that this decline was triggered by the investment of the intervention proceeds in US bonds and that global portfolio rebalancing spread the resulting decline in US dollar yields to bond markets in other currencies, thus easing global monetary conditions. We also show that the global portfolio balance effect is detectable in the response of yields to large Japanese intervention in data before and after 2003/04, though the effect is weaker. While our findings contribute to a growing body of work that points to common responses across bond markets to official portfolio shifts in the form of large-scale bond purchases (“quantitative easing”), our analysis has the advantage of focusing on a pure portfolio shock.     

Government as borrower of first resort

Optimal government bond supply is examined under asymmetric information and safe asset scarcity. Corporations issue junk debt when demand for safe debt is high since uninformed investors then migrate to risky overheated debt markets. Uninformed demand stimulates informed speculation, driving debt prices toward fundamentals, encouraging pooling at high leverage. As borrower of first resort, government can issue bonds, siphoning off uninformed demand for risky corporate debt, reducing wasteful informed speculation. Government bonds eliminate pooling at high leverage or improve risk sharing in such equilibria. Optimal government bond supply is increasing in demand for safe assets and non-monotonic in marginal Q.     

Diversification and cash dynamics

Why do diversified firms hold significantly less cash than focused firms? We study this question using a dynamic model of corporate investment, saving, and diversification decisions. We find that investment dynamics are more important in explaining the cash differences than financing frictions. More efficient internal capital markets increase cash differences and are especially valuable when a firm diversifies or refocuses. Contrary to static models, more diverse conglomerates have lower cash differences. Endogenous selection (diversifying firms are larger and have better growth opportunities) accounts for 68% of the cash difference, and the diversification event itself reduces cash holdings by 32%.     

Mr. Market's Mind: Finance's Hard Problem

The market as a mind is the implicit premise in any discussion on whether the market is rational or not. Still, its implications, in terms of ontology and epistemology, are hardly understood. In particular, this paper defines the market's version of the mind-body problem and labels it as finance's “hard” problem. Its denial by modern finance causes this dominant paradigm to fail in dealing with reality in general and to produce incomplete investment knowledge in particular. Finally, as part of facing up to this problem, this paper offers a glimpse at a practical approach which may enrich investment research.     

The Increased Role of Foreign Capital in the Peruvian Financial System

Summary

Foreign investment has played a very important role in developing Peru's banking sector since 1990. Indeed, as of June 1998, half of all bank assets were foreign-controlled. Much of this increased participation by outside entities can be traced to the privatization drive and to discriminatory reserve requirements on domestic deposits. Despite financial deepening, the analysis conducted here finds that the financial sector has not become more efficient in lowering the cost of intermediation as measured by the interest spread between loans and deposits.