人口结构变迁与经常账目失衡

世界范围内持续多年的经常账目失衡并不鲜见,以往研究多关注汇率和净出口的关系,而忽视了经常账目余额的另外一种属性——本国在外国的储蓄。本文尝试从人口结构变迁的角度对这一问题给出新的解释。本文通过构建包括幼年抚养比和老年抚养比的世代交替模型,理论分析和预测了：幼年抚养比上升会降低储蓄率、增加投资率,从而减少经常账目余额;而老年抚养比下降会提高储蓄率,增加经常账目余额;试图填补人口结构对经常账目影响的理论空白。接下来,本文利用1990年至2011年全球110个国家的强平衡面板数据进行实证分析,在静态和动态模型下均得到了与理论预测相一致的稳健结果。根据实证结果进行定量分析,本文发现中国抚养比的变化可以解释1990年至2007年间经常账目余额占GDP比重16.6%的变动。     

银行业市场结构与货币政策冲击——基于异质性银行的模型分析

通过构造货币政策冲击下的贷款市场总体均衡模型,研究在受到资本充足率和存贷比约束的条件下,银行最优信贷决策行为。分析发现,在垄断竞争的银行业市场结构背景下,银行间在价格竞争方面表现出战略互补特征和由此带来的模仿效应。因而,当银行满足资本充足率和存贷比要求时,银行业传导的货币政策信贷渠道是有效的,而当贷款市场中的银行不能满足资本充足率或存贷比要求时,信贷渠道则表现出无效性。     

2009年中国经济增长率周期波动呈U型走势——利用景气指数和Probit模型的分析和预测

本文基于景气指数、"宏观经济监测预警信号系统"及Probit模型方法,对当前的经济景气状况和走势进行了分析和预测.结果表明:先行合成指数和先行扩散指数同时在2008年10月出现谷底,预示着本轮经济周期波动的谷将出现在2009年的4月或5月.在全球金融危机的背景下,中国经济仍会保持"一枝独秀",2009年下半年我国将处于经济周期波动的上升阶段.但是我国外需仍然不振,保增长将主要靠内需,经济增长周期波动的回升将呈现U型走势.     

住房保障对象划分研究

住房保障对象划分是住房保障体系建立的一个重要环节,通过借鉴国际经验,结合我国实际,依据住房消费收入比、房价收入比等指标,采用统计分组法与倒推法相结合的方法来划分识别城镇住房保障对象,得出我国现阶段城镇住房保障对象应涵盖城镇居民中的最低收入户、低收入户和中等偏下收入户,保障住房覆盖率为40%.对最低收入家庭和低收入家庭,应采用租金补贴方式;对中等偏下收入家庭,可采用租金补贴也可采用购房补贴方式,具体可由被保障对象自由选择.     

Increasing school quantity versus quality in kenya: impact on children from low-and high-income households

A common dilemma facing educational planners engaged in educational reform in developing countries is the allocation of sharply-reduced resources to the expansion of school facilities versus improvement of existing school facilities (say, by raising the teacher/pupil ratio). The empirical results presented in this paper for Kenya suggest that the two interventions have diametrically opposite effects on poor and nonpoor children. An expansion of school facilities increases the enrollment of children in the poorest expenditure quintiles but has no impact on the enrollment of children in the top quintiles. On the other hand, an improvement in the teacher-pupil ratio increases the enrollment rate of children in the top quintiles, and actually reduces the enrollment of children in the poor quintiles. These findings suggest that in situations where there is less than universal primary enrollment (UPE) and the government has set a time-bound goal of UPE, such as in Kenya, policies that serve to expand the number of school facilities may make more sense than interventions that increase the teacher-pupil ratio.     

Local environmental quality and life-satisfaction in Germany

Hitherto the task of valuing differences in environmental quality arising from air pollution and noise nuisance has been carried out mainly by using the hedonic price technique. This paper proposes a different approach to derive information on individual preferences for local environmental quality. It analyses data drawn from the German socio-economic panel in an attempt to explain differences in self-reported levels of well-being in terms of environmental quality. Mindful of existing research a large number of other explanatory variables are included to control for socio-demographic differences, economic circumstances as well as neighbourhood characteristics. Differences in local air quality and noise levels are measured by how much an individual feels affected by air pollution or noise exposure in their residential area. The evidence suggests that even when controlling for a range of other factors higher local air pollution and noise levels significantly diminish subjective well-being. But interestingly differences in perceived air and noise pollution are not capitalised into differences in house prices.     

The predictive accuracy of credit ratings: Measurement and statistical inference

Credit ratings are ordinal predictions of the default risk of an obligor. The most commonly used measure for evaluating their predictive accuracy is the Accuracy Ratio, or equivalently, the area under the ROC curve. The disadvantages of these measures are that they treat default as a binary variable, thus neglecting the timing of default events, and they fail to use all of the information available from censored observations. We present an alternative measure which is related to the Accuracy Ratio but does not suffer from these drawbacks. As a second contribution, we study statistical inference for the Accuracy Ratio and the proposed measure in the case of multiple cohorts of obligors with overlapping lifetimes. We derive methods which use more sample information and lead to tests which are more powerful than alternatives which filter just the independent part of the dataset. All procedures are illustrated in the empirical section using a dataset of S&P Credit Ratings.     

基于房价收入比的居民住房支付能力研究——以上海中等收入居民为例

面对高涨的房价,一些城市的中等收入居民既无足够的支付能力也不符合申请经济适用房的条件。本文以上海为例,通过否定国际惯用房价收入比4～6的合理取值范围,分析居民的实际购买力来确定房价收入比取值范围。同时对现行房价收入比指标进行修正和改进,以反映中等收入城市居民真实的住房支付能力现状。     

投资信息缺失下资本存量K估计的两种新方法

用永续盘存法测算资本存量依赖于投资信息的可得性,一旦投资信息缺失,永续盘存法便不可以直接用来测算资本存量,即使勉强使用该方法测算资本存量,其结果的准确性和可信度便可能大幅度降低。本文尝试提出了两种全新的测算资本存量的方法,即等资本-产量比法和哈罗德-多马模型法,弥补了永续盘存法的不足和扩展了其适用范围。本文并以海洋经济为例分别使用两种方法测算其资本存量K,并对测量结果进行了对比,分析了两种测量方法的适用性。     

企业环境会计信息披露行为研究——基于信号传递的分析

在目前的会计技术条件和制度背景下,环境会计信息反映的事项仍然很难准确计量和货币化。在缺乏统一规范和监管的情况下,企业环境会计信息披露更注重于作为一种姿态来影响企业外部利益相关人对企业的认知。因此,用信号传递模型来分析企业的环境会计信息披露行为是恰当的。本文通过构建一个环境会计信号传递模型,分析在不同的情境下企业如何选择最优的环境会计信息披露水平,并据此得出政府制定有效环境会计信息披露制度的政策建议。