传播媒介中的危机对政府形象的影响

本文从现今社会中的重大危机事件进行对比分析,通过危机中传播媒介发挥的作用对政府形象的影响,通过完善信息传播体制做好政府信息公开等方式塑造政府正面形象产生积极影响。     

民间金融发展现状与理论思考

农村金融中介的缺位、民间财富的膨胀及银行信贷门槛过高,使民间金融应运而生.民间金融具有规模大、用途广、主体多元化等特点.应正视民间金融的风险、确立民间金融的法律地位,并加强监管,积极引导民间金融有序成长.     

积极心理学在高校思想政治教育中的运用

时代的发展、高校思想政治教育的改革以及当前大学生的心理特点,呼唤积极心理学成为高校思想政治教育的重要指导思想。本文通过对积极心理学基本思想的简要介绍,重点分析如何在高校思想政治教育中运用积极心理学的基本理念,力求对高校思想政治教育有所启发与借鉴。     

城市居住与就业的空间配合研究——以北京市为例

随着中国社会经济的发展,近年来很多地区都经历着快速的城市化,一些大中城市出现了普遍的非自然性产业演替过程,这个过程中又伴随着城市人口的迅速膨胀和城市面积的急剧扩张,多种因素的共同作用使得中国一些大城市面临着不同程度的人口空间失配问题.论文通过对北京市不同区域内3个社区进行实地调研,在考察了各个社区内部居民通勤方式和工作可通达度之后得出关于北京市空间失配情况的结论,建议规划部门和房地产开发企业对新出现的空间失配现象给予足够重视,调整按照旧有城市发展进程设定的规划或开发选址思路.     

中国蔬菜出口面临的技术性贸易壁垒暨中日蔬菜贸易摩擦与日本"肯定列表"制度分析

本文对中国蔬菜出口所面临的技术型贸易壁垒形式进行分析,并就中日蔬菜贸易战及日本肯定列表制度对我国的影响与相应对策进行探讨.     

A model for stock market returns: non-Gaussian fluctuations and financial factors

While there are various theories to account for the large variations in stock prices, some observed statistical aspects require further analysis. A model is proposed for aggregate stock prices, based on observed data, rather than any efficient market hypothesis, and considering jumps in statistical parameters between phases of generally increasing, or generally decreasing, aggregate stock prices. The model relates a critical parameter for short-term behaviour directly to financial factors, especially interest rates, to explain large short-term variations which follow a non-Gaussian distribution. Economic fundamentals may affect changes over longer periods.      

经济行为基本特征的假设检验与实证逻辑

现代经济学对理性行为假设的"公理化"认同,是否可替代或超越理论检验和实践验证。本文提出对基本行为假设应进行科学的检验以分析其现实合理性和完善实证逻辑基础,探讨应用经济实证方法的有效前提和局限性,指出:基于现代经济学对中国现实问题的计量实证研究需要进行总体无差异性检验;要重视研究不同环境中经济行为的异质性和基本结构的异化;需要发展和结合多种实证方法等,以此提高实证效果和促进中国经济理论建设。     

Impact of treatment heterogeneity on drug resistance and supply chain costs

The efficacy of scarce drugs for many infectious diseases is threatened by the emergence and spread of resistance. Multiple studies show that available drugs should be used in a socially optimal way to contain drug resistance. This paper studies the tradeoff between risk of drug resistance and operational costs when using multiple drugs for a specific disease. Using a model for disease transmission and resistance spread, we show that treatment with multiple drugs, on a population level, results in better resistance-related health outcomes, but more interestingly, the marginal benefit decreases as the number of drugs used increases. We compare this benefit with the corresponding change in procurement and safety stock holding costs that result from higher drug variety in the supply chain. Using a large-scale simulation based on malaria transmission dynamics, we show that disease prevalence seems to be a less important factor when deciding the optimal width of drug assortment, compared to the duration of one episode of the disease and the price of the drug(s) used. Our analysis shows that under a wide variety of scenarios for disease prevalence and drug cost, it is optimal to simultaneously deploy multiple drugs in the population. If the drug price is high, large volume purchasing discounts are available, and disease prevalence is high, it may be optimal to use only one drug. Our model lends insights to policy makers into the socially optimal size of drug assortment for a given context.     

New evidence on price impact of analyst forecast revisions

Previous research shows a positive relationship between consensus forecast revisions and stock returns in developed markets. We obtain new evidence from four major Asia-Pacific markets that suggest that abnormal returns are related to latest forecast revisions. The price impact of negative revisions is consistently stronger than that of the positive revisions. We also found considerable differences in price impact between developed and emerging markets for positive revisions, while no such difference is detected for negative revisions. The latest forecast revisions and category of analysts (those working in international broking firms) appear to be two key determinants of abnormal stock returns.