Expectancy-value attitude models an analysis of critical measurement issues

Criteria for scaling beliefs and evaluations in the Fishbein model are considered, and a procedure is developed and illustrated for the proper test of multiplicative models. Hierarchical regression is shown to be a valid method for testing interaction hypotheses even when measures are only interval or ordinal scaled.     

Tax reform: Analyzing a comprehensive income tax

This paper includes an analysis of the general costs and benefits associated with the introduction of a comprehensive income tax. The introduction of a comprehensive income tax may result in such benefits as simplicity, horizontal equity, and neutrality that may, in turn, be offset by the costs in vertical equity, implementation losses, and efficiency losses. The solution to the question of the desirability of the comprehensive income tax may turn upon the nature of these costs and benefits as well as the philosophy of tax reform that is adopted.     

How road improvement reduces poverty: the case of Laos

A general equilibrium modeling approach is used to study the effect that rural road improvement has on poverty incidence in Laos. Household survey data are used to distinguish three categories of rural villages according to their road access: (i) no vehicular access; (ii) dry season only access; and (iii) all weather access. A general equilibrium model of the Lao economy is then used to simulate, first, the effect of upgrading category (i) to category (ii) roads, and second, category (ii) to category (iii) roads. The former has a larger poverty‐reducing effect but is also more costly.     

An empirical investigation of citizens' preferences among four energy scenarios

Within the context of the Jülich Compatibility Study on Energy Supply Systems the model of the planning cell was used to incorporate participation into the process of policy formulation and evaluation and to gain information about intuitive preferences concerning the four basic energy scenarios constructed by the Enquete Commission of the German Federal Parliament. Planning Cells consist of groups of citizens who are selected by random process and are given paid leave from their workday obligations for a limited period of time to work out solutions for social problems. A total of 24 planning cells were organized throughout Germany to evaluate the four energy scenarios and to formulate recommendations for the policy maker. As a result most citizens favored the more moderate scenarios [1, 5], but were almost equally divided in their preference distribution with respect to the pronuclear (option 2) and non-nuclear scenario (option 3). Using a simplified MAU-model to determine the preferences of each citizen, the surprising result was achieved that more than 40% of the participants reached the highest positive score for the most antinuclear, soft energy scenario. This result could be partly explained by cognitive factors and by preference group influence.     

Integrating strength-weakness analysis into strategic planning

Strength-weakness assessment, which must be performed as a part of any strategic planning process, is presented in terms of a process, termed SWA, that involves managers in making the critical informational choices that are implicit in strategic assessments of strengths and weaknesses. The process is illustrated in terms of its underlying premises, their implications, its benefits, and an illustrative substantive framework that can be used to guide the process.     

Detecting financially troubled property-liability insurers

The financial failure of property-liability insurers results in unpaid claims amounting to approximately $25 millions annually. A more effective system must be developed to detect these troubled firms at an earlier date and reduce this cost to society. The current system employed by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners relies primarily on loss reserves and loss ratios. It appears that most failures result from dishonesty and the removal of assets from the company into the possession of management. This study presents a model which incorporates variables designed to detect this draining of assets and identify companies which show a high probability for failure. This model is tested on an independent sample and is successful in correctly classifying 88% of the firms three years prior to liquidation. This study differs from prior studies by using a new approach to selecting the variables for the model.     

Impact of education and health on poverty reduction: Monetary and non-monetary evidence from Fiji

Fiji signed the United Nations 2015 target of halving extreme poverty from its 1990 level, but like many developing countries it is facing challenges in meeting this goal. This paper presents the economic modelling using Fiji's Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2002/03 dataset to examine the economic and social factors crucial for poverty reduction. Two hypotheses are tested: first, we estimate the monetary effects of education at the aggregate and disaggregated returns to education (primary, secondary, tertiary levels) and by income quartiles, and second, test the non-monetary education and health factors as channels of impact promulgated as effects against poverty prevalence. The monetary results indicate that all income quartile households (i.e. lowest to highest) benefit from additional skills obtained through formal education. While those at the lowest income quartile in particular benefit the most from formal education, however it cannot sustainably prevent people with only primary education from falling into poverty. The results for non-monetary models show that education has a positive and significant influence on the tendency of the people to engage in health prevention activities and in acquiring good housing facilities.     

Contagious development: Neighbor interactions in deforestation

We estimate neighbor interactions in deforestation in Costa Rica. To address simultaneity and the presence of spatially correlated unobservables, we measure for neighbors' deforestation using the slopes of neighbors' and neighbors' neighbors' parcels. We find that neighboring deforestation significantly raises the probability of deforestation. Policies for agricultural development or forest conservation in one area will affect deforestation rates in non-targeted neighboring areas. Correct estimation of the interaction reverses the naive estimate's prediction of multiple equilibria.     

政府政策扶持、创新驱动对我国农业产业化龙头企业发展的影响——基于894家国家重点龙头企业的实证分析

利用894家我国农业产业化国家重点龙头企业的生产经营数据,对其生产经营状况进行了描述性分析。采用固定效应模型,实证分析了影响农业产业化龙头企业的主营业务销售收入、利润和带动就业能力的因素。研究结果显示:目前的财税支持政策在一定程度上促进了农业产业化龙头企业的发展,但对企业的盈利能力及竞争力的作用比较有限;技术研发与应用增强了企业发展驱动力,但由于投入大、见效慢、风险高等,因此投入增长较缓慢。最后提出了不断优化和完善财税和信贷扶持政策的建议。     

黑龙江省林业循环经济发展水平评价研究

首先根据循环经济的"3R"原则和黑龙江省林业循环经济发展的实际情况,建立了林业循环经济发展水平评价指标体系;然后依据黑龙江省2001年到2011年的指标数据,运用主成分分析方法,综合分析出黑龙江省林业循环经济总体发展趋势,并从资源消耗、资源循环利用、社会和经济发展、生态环境4个方面分阶段评述了黑龙江省林业循环经济的发展水平,浅析了各阶段取得成效和存在问题的原因。