旅游项目风险因素分析的生态系统观点

旅游业是一个关联度大、相关带动性强的经济性产业,因此其风险因素众多.从创新生态系统视角-对旅游项目的风险因素进行分析,可以将这些风险因素分为三类,项目自身风险、项目依赖风险和资源整合风险.     

销售渠道风险管理

本文首先建立了一套用以评估销售渠道风险的指标体系，通过建立企业各销售渠道的物元模型，运用物元的可拓性，将销售渠道的建设和管理控制的指标量化，按照统一规范化运算，得出便于比较的优度，从而对各类渠道风险进行排序选择风险最底的渠道。最后，本文以一个算例对评估销售渠道风险模型进行了实证研究。     

风险投资与孵化器结合初探

建立孵化器，是促进科技成果转化、培育科技型中小企业的有效途径,是被实践证明了的加速高新技术产业化的重要经验，也是建设国家创新体系的重要组成部分。对孵化器和风险投资结合的初步研究，可以更好地把两相融合，更好地培育科技型中小企业，从而加速高新技术产业化进程。     

Covid-19 attacks the body of purchasing and supply management: A medical check of the immune system

Much like the immune system of the body, the ‘immune system’ of purchasing and supply management (PSM) is also affected by the Covid-19 virus. Medicine must hinder the spread of the virus and outbreak of disease, just as PSM must prevent risk events and handle supply disruptions. The existing debate on supply resilience and robustness can be demonstrated using this medical analogy. The purpose of this article was to perform a medical check of the ‘PSM immune system’ to identify lessons and research gaps when confronted with a low-frequency-high-impact event such as the pandemic. As a provocative note, this article identifies research gaps in elements of the immune system of PSM (e.g., helper cells – consultancy support or memory cells – feedback loops). The results call for a more holistic debate on the immune system of PSM. Two approaches for research on ‘conventional’ or ‘alternative’ risk management schools of thought are presented as a basis for future discourse on how to improve the PSM immune system.     

气候变化对经济金融系统性冲击的物理风险研究

中国作为全球最大的发展中国家,其综合实力伴随着经济、科技的快速发展而不断增强。但我国的极端气候事件趋多趋强,气候风险水平呈上升趋势,影响我国经济社会的发展。金融作为经济运行的核心,在宏观经济中有着举足轻重的作用。为了研究气候变化与经济金融稳定之间的关系,本文对极端气候事件损失体系和区域经济金融稳定性综合体系进行指数合成并构建面板模型探讨气候变化中气温和降水量因素的变动和极端气候事件对区域金融稳定的影响,得出气候变化的物理风险通过极端气候事件对经济发展和金融稳定有负面影响,并根据实证结果提出完善绿色金融市场和优化信息披露制度的政策建议。     

Subjective recursive expected utility

We axiomatize a subjective version of the recursive expected utility model. This development extends the seminal results of Kreps and Porteus (Econometrica 46:185–200 (1978)) to a subjective framework and provides foundations that are easy to relate to axioms familiar from timeless models of decision making under uncertainty. Our analysis also clarifies what is needed in going from a represention that applies within a single filtration to an across filtration representation.Part of this research was conducted when Ozdenoren visited MEDS in Fall 2003. We thank Tapas Kundu, Costis Skiadas, Jean-Marc Tallon and Tan Wang for helpful discussions and also thank audiences at Koc University, Northwestern University, the CERMSEM conference “ Mathematical Models in Decision Theory” at Universite Paris I, and the FUR XI conference on foundations and applications of utility, risk and decision theory     

从京东方负债扩张看我国的杠杆收购

20上世纪80年代风靡美国的杠杆收购方式以其巨大的溢价空间和较高的财务、经营风险引起理论学者的研究和实践人士的青睐。我国现阶段,实行杠杆收购有着非常深远的影响和广阔的空间,但仍存在许多制约因素,如法律不完善、资本市场弱式化、投资银行不发达、管理人员素质不高等。     

浅议我国商业银行中间业务的法律风险与防范对策

商业银行中间业务的开展对促进商业银行提高经营效益、降低银行风险，以及实现可持续发展等方面发挥了重要作用。然而现阶段我国商业银行发展中间业务时面临诸多法律风险，如立法上的缺陷、法律的滞后性等。因而，应积极制定有关法律、法规，适度监管，为商业银行中间业务的开展营造良好的法律环境。     

Growth and welfare effects of business cycles in economies with idiosyncratic human capital risk

This paper uses a tractable macroeconomic model with idiosyncratic human capital risk and incomplete markets to analyze the growth and welfare effects of business cycles. The analysis is based on the assumption that the elimination of business cycles eliminates the variation in idiosyncratic risk. The paper shows that a reduction in the variation in idiosyncratic risk decreases the ratio of physical to human capital and increases the total investment return and welfare. If the degree of risk aversion is less than or equal to one, then economic growth is enhanced. This paper also provides a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of business cycles based on a calibrated version of the model. Even for relatively small degrees of risk aversion (around one) the model implies that the elimination of business cycles has substantial effects on investment in physical and human capital, economic growth, and welfare.     

企业战略管理风险评价指标体系的构建与Fuzzy属性测度模型

企业战略风险管理是企业管理的核心问题之一。战略风险的测度与评判是管理者跟踪经营过程，实施动态控制，进行科学管理的前提。建立关于战略风险测评的属性测度模型并将其应用于实际，可为风险管理的量化决策提供一种可供选择的易于操作的方法。