Beyond the Optimistic Curse: A New Multiscenario Approach to Debt Sustainability Assessment

While a careful and accurate debt sustainability assessment (DSA) is crucial for an efficient macroeconomic management, the most widely used framework introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suffers from several drawbacks that render its results overoptimistic and misleading. In this article, we correct the methodology by demonstrating how policy makers can develop country-specific “intermediate” forecasts of the determinants of debt dynamics, in addition to coherent “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios. Our application to the case of Egypt illustrates that the debt-to-GDP ratio could increase to more than 100 percent by 2015, in contrast with the 61 percent projected by the IMF in 2010.     

当前差别存款准备金政策的制约因素及对策

差别准备金动态调控政策是我国建立逆周期宏观审慎管理框架,防范金融机构系统性风险的重要举措。本文围绕宏观审慎管理念和差别化调控思路,结合淄博市法人金融机构的具体情况,分析了2011年差别准备金动态调控中遇到的机制障碍,就如何完善差别准备金动态调控工具提出了政策建议。     

Towards a resilience management framework for complex enterprise systems upgrade implementation

The lack of knowledge of how resilience management supports enterprise system (ES) projects accounts for the failure of firms to leverage their investments in costly ES implementations. Using a structured-pragmatic-situational (SPS) case study research approach, this paper reports on an investigation into the resilience management of a large utility company as it implemented an ES upgrade. Drawing on the literature and on the case study findings, we developed a process-based resilience management framework that involves three strategies (developing situation awareness, demystifying threats, and executing restoration plans) and four organisational capabilities that transform resilience management concepts into practices. We identified the crucial phases of ES upgrade implementation and developed indicators for how different strategies and capabilities of resilience management can assist managers at different stages of an ES upgrade. This research advances the state of existing knowledge by providing specific and verifiable propositions for attaining a state of resilience, the knowledge being grounded in the empirical reality of a case study. Moreover, the framework offers ES practitioners a roadmap to better identify appropriate responses and levels of preparedness.     

Firm‐specific human capital investments as a signal of general value: Revisiting assumptions about human capital and how it is managed

Research summary : Prior scholarship has assumed that firm‐specific and general human capital can be analyzed separately. This article argues that, in some settings, this is not the case because prior firm‐specific human capital investments can be a market signal of an individual's willingness and ability to make such investments in the future. As such, the willingness and ability to make firm‐specific investments is a type of general human capital that links firm‐specific and general human capital in important ways. The article develops theory about these investments, market signals, and value appropriation. Then, the article examines implications for human resource management and several important questions in the field of strategic management, including theories of the firm and microfoundations of competitive advantage. Managerial summary : While managers don't often use the terms firm‐specific and general skills, they certainly recognize that investments employees make in their skill sets are more or less relevant to a specific firm. For instance, investing in specific relationships within a firm or learning a firm's proprietary software would be considered firm‐specific investments. While such skills may seem relevant only to the particular firm in which they were invested, these investments may also send valuable signals to competing firms that such employees are willing and able to make similar investments elsewhere. Hence, managers should be interested in determining if a potential hire has made prior firm‐specific investments to help them know whether that person might be likely to make such investments in his or her future place of employment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国“老字号”企业的经营现状与发展前景

文章以对12个省/市的378位"老字号"企业管理人员的问卷调查资料为基础数据,描述和分析了"老字号"的经营现状(如竞争优势、存在的不足、最需改进的方面)和发展前景,认为在新一轮的激烈市场竞争中,"老字号"企业不但需要不断适应外部市场变化的全球化和本土化的双重压力,而且需要在企业内部将传统的与现代的两种优势相结合,将已有的与新生的两种竞争力相结合(简称"双结合"),以便具备核心能力。这种"双结合"的核心能力不仅可以使"老字号"企业拥有一定的竞争优势,而且可以让其优化企业价值链管理,持续增强企业市场竞争力。     

Decomposing Impression from Attitude in Relationship Management Outcomes

This study expands relationship management theory by testing the linkages between perceived relational quality, organizational impression, and attitude in affecting the behavioral intention of customer public of five major banks. A survey of 1,178 banking customers showed that perceived relational quality, organizational impression, and individual attitude, significantly affected supportive behaviors. Organizational impression was found to be almost three times more determinant than perceived relational quality in affecting individuals' attitudes, and subsequently, their supportive behaviors. By highlighting the role of organizational impression, linkages between the relationship management perspective and other theoretical frameworks, such as image repair, become apparent; bearing implications for scholarship and practice.     

高职院校学生管理工作现状与对策研究

近年来,随着学生生源素质的不断下降,毕业生就业压力也随之加大,给我国高职院校的学生管理工作带来了新的挑战。本文结合高职院校存在管理理念落后,管理方法单一,学生自我约束差,生源层次不齐,网络化、信息化给学生带来的冲击等问题,提出将以人为本、校园文化、企业愿景和队伍建设融入到学生管理中,从而形成更加科学的管理体系和制度。     

Engaging Australian small-scale lifestyle landowners in natural resource management programmes – Perceptions,past experiences and policy implications

This study explores Australian small-scale rural lifestyle landowners’ perceptions of and experiences with natural resource management (NRM) extension and incentive programmes and discusses means to better-match such programmes to these landowners’ NRM interests, assistance needs and delivery preferences. Data was collected from seventeen in-depth qualitative case-studies of small-acreage landholders located in the Noosa hinterland in south-east Queensland. These landholders indicated a high need for expert advice, labour and other resource assistance to achieve their property management objectives. They had, however, a low-level of awareness and understanding of available programmes (particularly incentive schemes) that could provide some of their needed support. Other key barriers to the landholders’ participation in these programmes were aversions to support providers, a perceived unsuitability of properties or irrelevance of particular incentive programmes, and concerns about programme application procedures or property-rights and value-related implications of engagement. Increased NRM engagement among small-scale lifestyle landowners may be achievable through amendments to existing support programmes and better communication of these programmes. The design and delivery of appropriate measures and messages may require collaborative partnerships, with knowledgeable and influential ‘go-to’ landowners and peer-mentoring networks playing a critical role. In many cases, conservation-focused incentive programmes may need to facilitate cooperative NRM among groups of adjoining micro-scale lifestyle landowners and allow greater flexibility in the length and allowable land and forest management practices of contractual agreements. Moreover, small-scale lifestyle landowners have much interest in and need for support to integrate multi-purpose agroforestry systems with other environmental and aesthetic property management goals. Workshops, follow-up field-days on participating properties, free one-on-one on-property advice, and NRM guides that include detailed case-study accounts of landowner experiences are important means of communicating the availability, administrative requirements and benefits of support programmes to small-scale lifestyle landowners.     

The effect of financial leverage on real and accrual-based earnings management

Past research has documented a substitution effect between real earnings management (RM) and accrual-based earnings management (AM), depending on relative costs. This study contributes to this research by examining whether levels of (and changes in) financial leverage have an impact on this empirically documented trade-off. We hypothesise that in the presence of high leverage, firms that engage in earnings manipulation tactics will exhibit a preference for RM due to a lower possibility – and subsequent costs – of getting caught. We show that leverage levels and increases positively and significantly affect upward RM, with no significant effect on income-increasing AM, while our findings point towards a complementarity effect between unexpected levels of RM and AM for firms with very high leverage levels and changes. This is interpreted as an indication that high leverage could attract heavy outsider scrutiny, making it necessary for firms to use both forms of earnings management in order to achieve earnings targets. Furthermore, we document that equity investors exhibit a significantly stronger penalising reaction to AM vs. RM, indicating that leverage-induced RM is not as easily detectable by market participants as debt-induced AM, despite the fact that the former could imply deviation from optimal business practices.