Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: The role of interest rates

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging-market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly.     

R&D, risks and overreaction in a market with the absence of the book-to-market effect

Prior studies document that the book-to-market (BM) effect is absent in the Taiwan stock market. Using Taiwanese data covering from 1991 to 2006, we show that, after controlling for the size effect and the Fama and French's (1993) risk factors, the BM effect only exists for those firms with low R&D intensity essentially because these stocks suffer less from investors’ underreaction to R&D investment. The BM effect arises primarily from fundamental reversals acting as a proxy for investors’ overreaction.     

Forecasting the volatility of S&P depositary receipts using GARCH-type models under intraday range-based and return-based proxy measures

We employ four various GARCH-type models, incorporating the skewed generalized t (SGT) errors into those returns innovations exhibiting fat-tails, leptokurtosis and skewness to forecast both volatility and value-at-risk (VaR) for Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts (SPDRs) from 2002 to 2008. Empirical results indicate that the asymmetric EGARCH model is the most preferable according to purely statistical loss functions. However, the mean mixed error criterion suggests that the EGARCH model facilitates option buyers for improving their trading position performance, while option sellers tend to favor the IGARCH/EGARCH model at shorter/longer trading horizon. For VaR calculations, although these GARCH-type models are likely to over-predict SPDRs' volatility, they are, nevertheless, capable of providing adequate VaR forecasts. Thus, a GARCH genre of model with SGT errors remains a useful technique for measuring and managing potential losses on SPDRs under a turbulent market scenario.     

联网型智能通风节能控制系统的设计与实现

文章针对通信基站机房节能降耗的需求,设计并实现了一种联网型的智能通风节能控制系统。系统采集机房内外环境温、湿度实时监测数据,采用智能逻辑算法,控制进风机、出风机和机房空调设备的运行,充分利用机房室内外的温差,依靠大量的空气流通实现室内散热,以达到节能降耗的目的。联网型的设计保证了系统灵活的组网方式,更适合全程控制和集中维护。通过一年多的运行证明,系统能够在保证通信机房设备运行工作环境的同时,大幅降低机房空调的耗电,使设备维护方便、运行稳定,达到了设计目的。     

Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications

This study looks at the characteristics and determinants of booms and busts in housing prices for a sample of eighteen industrialised countries over the period 1980–2007. From an historical perspective, we find that recent housing booms have been amongst the longest in the past four decades. Estimates of a Multinomial Probit model suggest that domestic credit and interest rates have a significant influence on the probability of booms and busts occurring. Moreover, international liquidity plays a significant role for the occurrence of housing booms and—in conjunction with banking crises—for busts. We also find that the deregulation of financial markets has strongly magnified the impact of the domestic financial sector on the occurrence of booms.     

谬误分类新探

谬误是与论证相关的概念,是错误的推理形式。文章考察了谬误的定义概况,区别于以往谬误的分类方法,根据谬误产生的过程,即一个错误的由前提,经过推理,到达结论的论证过程,将谬误区分为前提错误的谬误、推理错误的谬误和结论错误的谬误三类,以期为谬误的研究工作提供新的思路。     

体育科学与体育科学体系新论

依据《辞海》中科学的概念,结合体育科学的性质和特点,重新定义了体育科学的概念。指出了体育学院通用教材体育概论中体育科学体系分类的不合理之处,提出了新的体育科学体系分类。     

寿险公司盈余管理研究——基于业务特性驱动视角

寿险公司业务经营具有跨期均衡性、资金融通性、偿付能力充足性三大特性。受业务特性驱动,寿险公司盈余管理策略具有独特性,这些策略主要包括再保险交易、保险准备金提取、金融资产分类和计量。合理适度的盈余管理有利于维护寿险公司和保险市场的稳定发展。