Determining fair values of performance‐vested and forfeiture‐embedded employee stock options

This study provides a new approach to determine the fair value of ESOs by extending the performance‐vested option pricing model. The model developed in this study takes both vesting period and forfeiture rate into consideration to capture characteristics of ESOs. Empirical and sensitivity analyses give evidence for the importance of these two elements. Empirical results also support that the derived model can be employed to increase the accuracy of ESOs’ fair value.     

Organisational change and performance in long-lived small firms: a real options approach

This paper supports two key principles of real options reasoning: (a) the value of waiting and (b) the value of staging. It tests whether real options logic applies to small firms implementing significant changes (e.g. in technology) in a model of small firm performance, estimated on data collected by interviews with entrepreneurs. We found that to achieve a higher value by waiting, a delicate balance of precipitators of change against time until exercise is necessary (e.g. if there were just one or two precipitators, then waiting would certainly raise the value). Similarly, to achieve a higher value by staging, the entrepreneur needs to balance embedding against investment time. Thus, provided that investment time is less than 1¼ years, we found that embedding will raise the value. Overall, this implies that strategic flexibility in investment decisions is necessary for good long-run performance of small firms.     

Is the relationship between investment and conditional cash flow volatility ambiguous,asymmetric or both?

We investigate the effect of cash flow volatility on investment. Our evidence suggests that financially constrained firms decrease investment (i) when experiencing persistently high volatility; (ii) when experiencing both high volatility and negative cash flow growth realisations; and (iii) when holding low cash levels and experiencing both high volatility and a negative cash flow growth realisations. In financially unconstrained firms, the above effects are either not found or are of relatively low economic importance. Overall, our findings lend support to the financial flexibility literature and tend to contradict predictions of the real options literature.     

Impacts of derivative markets on spot market volatility and their persistence

In this article, we investigate the impacts of futures and options markets on the volatility of the underlying market. Unlike earlier studies, the focus is on their persistence over time. Tests on the Hang Seng index yield several interesting results that often contrast with previous findings. Empirical results suggest that the quality of new information generated by derivative trading determines the impacts on the spot market volatility. The futures market provides new, material information reducing spot market volatility. The Options market, on the other hand, generates noisy information and distorts price, which is followed by an increase in volatility and a decrease in its sensitivity to price change. While the impact of futures persists, that of options mostly disappears as the market matures. Our conjecture is that the futures market is mainly driven by informed, experienced participants, while the options market attracts new, inexperienced investors.     

CEO career horizon,corporate governance,and real options: The role of economic short‐termism

Research Summary: Combining studies on real options theory and economic short‐termism, we propose that, depending on CEOs’ career horizons, CEOs have heterogeneous interests in strategic flexibility, and thus, have different incentives to make real options investments. We argue that compared to CEOs with longer career horizons, CEOs with shorter career horizons will be less inclined to make real options investments because they may not fully reap the rewards during their tenure. In addition, we argue that long‐term incentives and institutional ownership will mitigate the relationship between CEOs’ career horizons and real options investments. U.S. public firms as an empirical setting produced consistent evidence for our predictions. Our study is the first to theoretically explain and empirically show that a CEO's self‐seeking behavior will impact real options investments. Managerial Summary: This article helps to explain how a CEO's self seeking‐behavior may shape a firm's real option investment, which could result in different level of strategic flexibility. We argue that CEOs with short career horizons have less time to exercise their firms’ real options, which should lower the investments in the firms’ real options portfolios relative to CEOs with long career horizons. We study a sample of U.S. public firms and find strong evidence that a CEO's expected tenure in the firm is positively related to the real options investments at the firm level. We find that this agency issue can be mitigated by adopting appropriate corporate governance mechanisms such as long‐term incentives and institutional investors.     

自动喷泉控制系统水下电缆的使用选择

随着社会发展,自动喷泉的应用日益广泛,大量自动喷泉的建设及应用不可避免地产生诸如与节能、安全等有关的问题,如何解决这些问题,关系到自动喷泉的健康发展,本文就这些问题进行了有益探索。     

ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF DISTRIBUTION DENSITIES IN MODELS WITH STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY. I

We study the asymptotic behavior of distribution densities arising in stock price models with stochastic volatility. The main objects of our interest in the present paper are the density of time averages of a geometric Brownian motion and the density of the stock price process in the Hull–White model. We find explicit formulas for leading terms in asymptotic expansions of these densities and give error estimates. As an application of our results, sharp asymptotic formulas for the price of an Asian option are obtained.     

An analysis of snow options for ski resort establishments

This study proposes a pricing method for put options on snow level for tourism establishments operating in Palandoken ski resort in the east of Turkey. In the calculation of put prices historical densities and Edgeworth adjusted densities methods together with Alaton, Djehiche, and Stillberger (2002) method have been applied. The findings show that there may be significant differences in the prices calculated by the three different methods, hence enabling both parties, i.e. buyers and sellers, with bases in the negotiation process. As the study is primarily aimed at providing a framework for pricing put options on snow levels in general, it is expected that it would be of use not only for this particular ski resort but also for various ski resorts in the world.     

A combination of differentiation and consolidation theory and risk-benefit analysis to examine decisions on mastitis prevention

Abstract

Mastitis infections cause severe pain in dairy cows and are the most costly illness to farmers. This study combined differentiation and consolidation (Diff-Con) theory with risk-benefit analysis to explore how risky decisions are perceived and justified after a decision has been taken. More specifically, using survey data from 428 Swedish dairy farmers, their decisions about adopting preventive measures to control mastitis (mastitis control options, MCO) in dairy herds were examined. The analyses included group comparisons with non-parametric rank tests and use of both ordinary least squared regression and seemingly unrelated regression analysis to examine how prior adoption of MCO affects farmers’ attitudes to the MCO. The results showed that MCOs already adopted were rated higher in perceived riskiness (if not implemented) and in expected benefit (for illness prevention) than non-adopted MCOs. Having made the decision to implement a strategy increased the likelihood of that decision being perceived as more beneficial (reducing mastitis) and risky (in terms of disease increase if not implemented), irrespective of the combination of strategies used on the farm, during the post-consolidation stage. No difference in perceived illness prevalence could explain the farmers’ rating of the MCOs. These findings suggest that there may be a path dependency in farmers’ decision-making with respect to MCO. This implies that novel MCOs may have difficulty in achieving wider implementation. These results have implications for the development of strategies to communicate best practices for use of MCOs and for new research on MCOs and farmers’ decision-making.