存款保险制度在我国的实行和相关配套政策

存款保险制度的建立和实行对我国银行业的发展具有极其重要的作用.主要结论有:一、现行银行制度在其承担流动性保险功能时有其固有的脆弱性,存款保险制度则可以为类型存款人取款提供一种有效的制度保障;二、我国隐性"超级"存款保险制度的现状加剧了道德风险,亟待出台显性存款保险制度;三、风险预警机制替代市场监控能较好地解决存款保险制度无法解决的信息不对称问题,为存款保险降低道德风险创造条件.     

台湾地区消费警讯制度的生成、现况及其启示

消费警讯是我国台湾地区在消费者保护方面的一项重要制度。通过对消费警讯的规范性依据、发展历程、具体运行机制的分析与阐释,进一步了解台湾地区的消费警讯制度。在此基础上,总结其成功经验,以期为大陆地区相关制度之构建提供借鉴。     

财务危机预警系统在商业银行信贷风险管理中的应用

目前,商业银行信贷风险管理中财务分析存在的贷款企业资料不真实、现金流量没得到应有重视、财务分析手段不丰富等主要问题,都会引发财务危机。在信贷风险管理中应用财务危机预警系统,通过对上市公司运营因子、盈利因子、偿债因子、成长因子、现金流量因子、规模因子、行业因子、股权集中度因子的分析,能够及时发现企业可能带来的危机影响。商业银行应准确合理地选择财务危机预警指标,为信贷风险管理提供强有力的依据;建立财务危机预警模型应在会计信息真实完整的基础上,通过对会计信息进行加工、处理来完成。     

Political booms and currency crises

This paper shows evidence that political booms, defined as the rise in governments’ popularity, are associated with a higher likelihood of currency crises. The reasoning behind this finding is that prudent economic policies to address underlying weaknesses in the economy may be political costly for incumbent governments in the short-term. Hence, popularity-concerned governments may not have enough incentives to take such corrective actions in a timely manner. This approach, in turn, can deteriorate economic fundamentals and increase related risks in the economy which can eventually lead to crises. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon in the case of currency crises, suggesting that currency crises can be viewed as “political booms gone bust” events. Moreover, it finds that higher international reserves, higher exports, and a higher degree of financial openness alleviate the effect of political booms on currency crises.     

新冠肺炎疫情对供应链弹性管理的启示

新冠肺炎疫情将对中国产业供应链的持续竞争力形成挑战,使企业面临人力短缺、成本增加、现金流紧张和供应链不确定性增高等问题,在企业供应链的原材料供应、采购管理、生产复工、物流以及市场等方面均会产生一定的负面影响,这对供应链弹性管理提出了新的要求。在政府层面,应建立综合、协同性的产业供应链风险管理和沟通机制,构建基于事件的产业供应链预警体系,保障企业供应链运营的资源体系,推动产业平台和产业集群带动供应链参与者建立供应链弹性体系。在企业层面,应建立基于企业事件的供应链预警体系,根据供应链预警信息和状况,合理规划供应链运营方式,运用数字化能力建设企业供应链弹性体系,稳定供应链运营,提升供应链效率。     

Do significant risk warnings in annual reports increase corporate bond credit spreads? Evidence from China

Based on listed companies issuing bonds on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2007 to 2017, this study analyzes the relationship between significant risk warnings in Chinese companies’ annual reports and corporate bond credit spreads. The main findings are as follows. First, in the Chinese market, “substantial warnings of significant risks” can significantly improve corporate bond credit spreads, reflecting the risk-warning effect; second, state-owned property rights weaken this effect, which only pertains to listed companies with poor risk management and low information quality; third, significant risk warnings increase investors’ heterogeneous beliefs, also affecting credit spreads; and fourth, through textual analysis, it is found that the corporate bond credit spread is greater when the disclosed risk factors are more pessimistic and less similar to those of the previous year. The findings of this paper help to enrich the literature on credit spreads and risk disclosure.     

盐城市水资源承载状态预警研究

在分析水资源承载状态预警概念的基础上,引入"三类六级"预警思想,采用可变模糊法和层次分析法的思想,构建盐城市水资源承载状态综合预警指标体系,评价盐城市2015年、2020年和2030年的水资源承载状态,并结合各年份承载状态变化趋势,对未来年份进行预警。结果表明:盐城市2015年水资源处于临界超载的状态,但随着"关于做好建立全国水资源承载能力监测预警机制工作的通知"等一系列措施的实施,2020年、2030年承载状态将逐步好转,到2030年将处于可载的状态。     

Bank distress prediction: Empirical evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

In this paper we apply a simple hazard model to develop an early warning system of bank distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Specifically, we identify a set of leading indicators of bank distress that are used subsequently to predict the probability of bank failure in these countries. The investigation covers a wide set of bank level variables and other variables including the influence of bank management, competition, diversification, ownership and regulation. Similar to the previous empirical evidence, we found that good management lowers the likelihood of distress. Moreover, competition and diversification were found to be bad for the health of banks. This result is consistent with some empirical evidence on diversification; however, it contradicts the bulk of literature on competition, which suggests a negative influence on the probability of distress. The ownership structure and the capital requirement index were uninformative. Similar to the previous literature, the institutional development index was statistically relevant predictor. The bank specific and other CAMEL type variables as well as the systematic shocks in the financial and macroeconomic environment were all found to be in line with the findings of related empirical studies. Finally, we find that by conditioning on the relevant covariates, a simple hazard model has performed fairly well in predicting bank distress in the GCC countries.     

Demand for fair value accounting: The case of the asset revaluation boom in Korea during the global financial crisis

When the fair value accounting (FVA) option for property, plant, and equipment was introduced in the midst of the global financial crisis, a significant proportion of Korean firms elected FVA. We attribute this unusual boom in asset revaluations to the nation's culture of government intervention and civilian compliance, which was particularly espoused during this period of financial turmoil, and a foreseeable option to switch back to historical cost accounting. We find that among those firms whose debt‐to‐equity ratios are low, public firms opt for the FVA option more often than private firms, suggesting that the need to communicate fair value information with diversified equity holders is more important than the need to do so with creditors. In contrast, among those firms whose debt‐to‐equity ratios are high enough to warrant such unfavorable dispositions as new debt freezes and monitoring by regulators, we find no difference in the FVA choice between private and public firms. These findings imply that during the global financial crisis, private firms that rely heavily on debt financing have a strong incentive to utilize FVA to comply with government guidelines for the debt‐to‐equity ratio and to ease a potential hold‐up problem by influential creditors.     

基于BP人工神经网络中国光伏产业贸易摩擦预警研究

建立有效的贸易摩擦预警系统有利于中国新兴产业的健康发展,有利于中国实施制造强国战略。将警兆信号法与人工神经网络相结合,从宏观经济形势、产业供给能力、双边贸易状况、市场需求水平等四个维度切入,构建了中国光伏产品出口贸易摩擦预警系统模型。预警分析表明,模型的预警效果与现实拟合较好,具有可行性。从模型的预警结果来看,2019年~2020年中国输美光伏产品贸易摩擦警情均低于轻警级别,仍面临一定的贸易摩擦风险。