Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy

One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real activity. We propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of the term spread, deriving from the balance sheet management of financial intermediaries and the “risk‐taking channel of monetary policy.” Monetary tightening leads to the flattening of the term spread, reducing net interest margin and credit supply. We provide empirical support for the risk‐taking channel.     

The impact of safety nets on technology adoption: a difference‐in‐differences analysis

This article contributes to a growing body of empirical literature relating credit constraints and incomplete insurance to investment decisions. We use panel data from rural Ethiopia to investigate whether participation in a safety net program enhances fertilizer adoption. Using a difference‐in‐differences estimator and inverse propensity score weighting, we find that participation in Ethiopia's food‐for‐work (FFW) program increased fertilizer adoption in the short run, but not in the long run. Results also indicate that the intensity of fertilizer usage increased with livestock holdings for FFW‐participant households, providing some evidence that the intervention helped asset‐rich farm households more than asset‐poor households. We find no significant effects of free distribution on fertilizer adoption or intensification. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that safety nets can be viewed as mechanisms that allow households to take on more risk to pursue higher profits. The results highlight the importance of safety net programs, their effectiveness in ensuring farmers that they will be protected against uninsured shocks, and how that assurance can translate into productivity‐enhancing behavior.     

Selection of influential variables in ordinal data with preponderance of zeros

Presence of excess zero in ordinal data is pervasive in areas like medical and social sciences. Unfortunately, analysis of such kind of data has so far hardly been looked into, perhaps for the reason that the underlying model that fits such data, is not a generalized linear model. Obviously some methodological developments and intensive computations are required. The current investigation is concerned with the selection of variables in such models. In many occasions where the number of predictors is quite large and some of them are not useful, the maximum likelihood approach is not the automatic choice. As, apart from the messy calculations involved, this approach fails to provide efficient estimates of the underlying parameters. The proposed penalized approach includes ?₁ penalty (LASSO) and the mixture of ?₁ and ?₂ penalties (elastic net). We propose a coordinate descent algorithm to fit a wide class of ordinal regression models and select useful variables appearing in both the ordinal regression and the logistic regression based mixing component. A rigorous discussion on the selection of predictors has been made through a simulation study. The proposed method is illustrated by analyzing the severity of driver injury from Michigan upper peninsula road accidents.     

六家煤矿北翼运输大巷围岩注浆加固及底板组合锚索

本文介绍了松软岩层在原支护状态被破坏后重新采用注浆及锚网索联合支护维修加固技术的应用方法。     

Macroeconomic policy cooperation and the G20

Has the G20 achieved its goals in macroeconomic cooperation since 2008? The paper organises the G20's efforts under five themes: macroeconomic stimulus, fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, the global financial safety net and global imbalances. The G20 was initially successful in each of these areas, but this success was short‐lived. While the G20 met its goals on macroeconomic stimulus, it has been less successful in reducing deficits and debt. While it was successful in increasing its resources, the global financial safety net remains too small, too fragmented and institutional reform is incomplete. While the G20 succeeded in moving to more market‐determined exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, it struggled to avoid negative spillovers. Despite years of effort, the G20 has made limited progress in reducing global imbalances. Current account imbalances are creeping back to pre‐crisis levels. Public debt remains high and most economies are moving in the wrong direction in correcting imbalances in household savings and debt. The paper concludes that the G20 has done better in some areas than others. But to suggest the G20 is a forum in decline ignores its shift from reactive crisis response to longer‐term structural challenges outside of the pressing need of an immediate crisis.     

泵站底板应力弹性地基梁法与三维静力计算对比分析

底板在泵站结构计算中占重要地位。在对长洲水利枢纽库区防护下六河泵站底板应力进行计算,分别采用弹性地基梁法、三维静力（通用软件KNSYS）计算,对应力结果进行综合分析表明,三维应力分析对边墙与底板结合处、弹性地基梁法对底板中部,与实际受力状态较为一致,为下一步结构设计优化提供依据。     

湖南省煤炭物流发展对策研究

从湖南省煤炭供需现状出发。分析了发展煤炭物流的可行性与必要性,找出了煤炭物流发展存在的一些问题,针对煤炭净调入省份的实际情况,提出了湖南省发展煤炭物流需要整合资源、建立区域煤炭物流中心等对策,以满足经济发展对不断增加的煤炭需求。     

现金流量与应计利润在企业债券市场中的有用性——来自沪市的经验证据

文章选取了截止到2005年底在上交所上市的企业债券39支,一共79个公司/年度样本,计算债券年度持有收益率,进而根据面板数据估计了一个横截面回归模型。经验证据表明,债券持有人对会计盈余的两个组成部分都作出正面的估价,并且估价的方式有些类似。这表明会计数字在中国企业债券市场中是有用的,但是应当继续加强发债主体财务信息披露。     

河北省大型科学仪器共享工作发展问题研究

在总结近年来河北省推进大型科学仪器共享工作的成果基础上,对河北省进一步提高设备利用率的现存困境进行了深入分析,指出"比较劣势"、网络不足及服务缺失是构成这一困境的主要原因,并提出了完善网络平台和构建服务中心的合理建议。     

私人银行业务法律问题研究

我国经济的稳步增长带来了社会财富总量的扩大和个人财富的集中,这为私人银行业务带来了巨大的市场发展潜力,中外资商业银行都在积极抓住这一难得的历史机遇。在为客户提供私人银行服务的同时,中外资商业银行也必须关注新兴业务带来的法律风险,并采取有效的措施加以防范。本文在对私人银行业务的发展历史、特点、现状进行详细分析的基础上,提出:现阶段法律法规应明确界定私人银行机构的业务范围以及私人银行机构与客户的关系,完善外汇管理方面的法律法规,同时私人银行机构也要关注反洗钱方面的监管规定,确保依法合规开展私人银行业务。