乡村生态振兴成效评价指标体系构建研究——基于江苏省、浙江省、安徽省的对比

[目的]乡村生态振兴是乡村振兴的重要方面,构建乡村生态振兴成效评价体系有利于衡量乡村生态振兴程度,甄别制约因素,并为乡村生态尽快振兴指明方向。[方法]文章以江苏、浙江、安徽3省为研究对象,基于PSR (压力—状态—响应)模型,构建了包含三大子系统、24项指标的乡村生态振兴成效评价体系。采用熵权法确定具体指标权重以及各子系统权重,并采用熵权TOPSIS法对3省的乡村生态振兴成效分层面和整体进行评价比较和等级判定。[结果](1)乡村生态环境状态系统对评价乡村生态振兴成效的重要程度最高,压力系统次之,响应系统最末。畜禽养殖、地下水资源量、当年造林面积分别对三大系统评价有较大影响。(2)在考察期内,从各子系统看,浙江乡村生态环境状态达到良好水平,在压力和响应层面的表现达到中等水平;江苏在压力、状态、响应系统方面的成效都为中等水平;安徽在压力、响应系统方面表现达到中等水平,但在状态系统方面表现较差。(3)总体上,浙江乡村生态振兴成效达到优秀水平,江苏为中等水平,安徽为较差水平。[结论] 3省在各层面各有优劣,主要差距集中在状态系统层面,但总体上江苏与安徽在乡村生态振兴方面仍有较大的进步空间。构建的乡村生态振兴评价指标体系具有一定的科学性和可行性。各省应从自身薄弱环节出发,加强资源保护、污染治理、基础设施建设,以推进乡村生态振兴。     

基于等标污染负荷法的山西省农业面源污染特征研究

[目的]为全面了解山西省农业面源污染现状,探讨农业面源污染强度及分布特征。[方法]文章运用清单分析法、等标污染负荷法计算并分析了2016年山西省及其11个行政区COD、总氮、总磷的农业面源污染负荷,并根据畜禽养殖业,种植业,水产养殖业以及农村生活排水4个账户的计算结果进行了全面分析。在此基础上讨论其空间分布特征并进行聚类分析。[结果](1) 2016年山西省农业面源污染COD排放量为80.73万t,总氮排放量为9.21万t,总磷排放量为1.02万t。(2)总氮等标污染负荷最大的为460.42亿m~3,其次为总磷,COD等标污染负荷最小,3种污染物总等标污染负荷为918.51亿m~3。(3) 4个账户中,农村生活账户的等标污染负荷比最大,为52.13%;其次为畜禽养殖账户和种植业账户,水产养殖账户最小为0.12%。(4)山西省11个行政区等标污染负荷比由大到小依次为运城市吕梁市晋中市临汾市长治市大同市忻州市晋城市朔州市太原市阳泉市。(5)通过对2016年山西省农业面源污染等标污染负荷的系统聚类分析,将11个行政区划分为重度污染型(临汾市、吕梁市、晋中市、运城市),中度污染型(长治市、忻州市、大同市、晋城市、朔州市)和轻度污染型(太原市、阳泉市) 3个类型。[结论]2016年山西省农业面源污染严重,其中COD排放量最大。污染物主要来自畜牧养殖账户和农村生活账户。运城市污染状况最为严重。     

流域生态补偿区的建立对企业经营绩效影响研究——以福建省为例

通过理论分析建立生态补偿区可能会对企业经营绩效产生的影响,以福建省上游上市公司为实验组,下游上市公司为对照组,选取2011-2018年上市公司数据共584个观测值进行实证检验。研究表明:福建省流域生态补偿区的建立提高了上游企业的绩效。进一步分析其主要原因可能是:财政转移支付向上游地区倾斜促进上游环保建设;企业R&D投入的加强;企业资本结构的改变。最后从政策和企业层面提出建议,以实现流域生态补偿政策的可持续性。     

供应链中基于VMI库存与运输协调问题的研究

通过对1个供应商、N个零售商组成的供应链形式的协调问题研究,提出了在VMI系统中协调库存与运输的配送策略。这种配送策略假设需求是Poisson随机过程,以更新理论为基础,基于供应商有权持有小额定单,直到定单数量到达一定程度时进行一起派送,即通过规模经济运输,达到降低成本的目的。     

Reopening the convergence debate: A new look at cross-country growth empirics

There are two sources of inconsistency in existing cross-country empirical work on growth: correlated individual effects and endogenous explanatory variables. We estimate a variety of cross-country growth regressions using a generalized method of moments estimator that eliminates both problems. In one application, we find that per capita incomes converge to their steady-state levels at a rate of approximately 10 percent per year. This result stands in sharp contrast to the current consensus, which places the convergence rate at 2 percent. We discuss the theoretical implications of this finding. In another application, we perform a test of the Solow model. Again, contrary to prior reults, we reject both the standard and the augmented version of the model.     

我国城市化的对策分析

城市化是我国全面建设小康社会，实现现代化的必由之路，我国城市化发展滞后已严重制约我国经济和社会的进一步发展。因此，必须选择合理的城市化目标，坚持正确的城市化道路，提高城市的拉动力，消除不利于城市化发展的体制和政策，以使我国城市化快速、健康发展。     

作业成本法对传统成本性态分析的影响

作业成本法以作业为中介 ,将资源追踪到作业 ,将作业成本追踪到产品 ,用作业动因作为成本分配的基础 ,冲击了传统成本性态分析 ,提供了适应现代制造环境的相对准确的成本信息。     

A Study on Strategic Value Chain and Cost Driver and PEST Analysis Method

Strategic value chain analysis method can be adopted to analyze the existing cost causality so as to confirm and optimize the value chain. Strategic cost driver analysis method that is used on the income of the owners and daily operators, production and operating activities, administration, resources, culture, etc in an enterprise can further enlarge the strategic cost scope. For analysis of the enterprise and its external environment factor, PEST analysis is represented as the extroversive analysis of cost causality. Three analytical methods of different kinds having some commonness on cost causality analysis can be combined together to form the causality analysis method, which will expand the visual angle of analysis and help to establish the integral frame of strategic cost causality analysis.     

How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario methodology. This approach has some limitations when it comes to dealing with simultaneous trends and countertrends, and trends or clusters of trends that are not thought of beforehand, especially the methodological requirements of causality and consistency, which might be limiting factors in this respect. This paper indicates alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. These options explicitly incorporate the notion of ‘paradoxical trend’ as the codriver of future developments into the methodology.     

铁路货车周转时间计算方法研究

通过对现行铁路货车周转时间计算方法进行分析,指出由于定义的概念不清,存在车辆相关法误差较大、时间相关法可行性较差,且工作量计算不准确等问题。同时,根据运输生产和资产经营的要求,阐述了改进的计算方法和实现措施。