Multinational firms, international trade and international telecommunications

The study analyses the determinants of international telephone, telex, telegram and leased lines communication between the United States and 46 countries. It focusses on the role of multinational firms, international trading firms and new information technologies within the framework of the theory of transaction costs.Results of the econometric estimates suggest that: (a) technological conditions of telecommunication infrastructure, i.e., international diffusion lags of new information technologies, play an important role in the explanation of international telephone and telex telecommunication flows but not in the demand for telegraph and leased lines, (b) multinational firms use international telecommunication to reduce the coordination costs and are strong customers of leased lines and telephones, but less so of telex and telegrams, (c) international trading firms exhibit less clear preferences in the use of the different media to reduce transaction costs.     

基于GIS的露天煤矿区土地动态变化分析

本文选用1985年和2005年两期土地利用现状图,借助MAPGIS软件,采用单一土地利用动态度和综合土地利用动态度等指数模型,分析了安太堡露天煤矿1985～2005年土地利用类型的数量变化和空间变化特征。结果表明:(1)各类土地利用类型综合动态度为2.07%;(;2)安太堡露天煤矿20年来各类土地利用类型的增减在空间上存在快速的变化,通过统计分析显示,灌木林地、工业用地、裸土地增加迅速,而旱地、未成林地大幅度减少;(3)安太堡露天煤矿空间动态演变特点为空间扰动剧烈、地类变化明显、空间变化持续时间长。     

不确定性情况下的居民资产组合行为与中国金融结构变迁

转轨经济的一个显著特点是各项制度不断变化,制度变迁带来的不确定性对居民资产选择行为产生重要影响,进而影响和决定了金融结构的形成与变迁.     

泰国城市化过程及其启示

20世纪60年代以来,泰国经济迅速发展,但城市化的进程却相对滞后.由于历史、政策以及政治体制等多方面原因,泰国在城市化过程中出现了城乡发展不协调、城市规模等级体系畸形化、贫民窟等严重的城市问题.泰国城市化过程的经验和教训对如何实现城乡协调和可持续发展具有重要的借鉴意义.对于发展中国家城市化而言,政府更应该重视优化城市层级,赋予城市一定的自治权,尊重农民的地方性知识并努力缩小城乡教育水平的差距.     

基于时间序列模型在物流需求预测中的应用

本文采用时间序列模型进行物流需求预测，用实例从数据平稳性的判断，平稳化、标准化，建模，经模型的识别、定价、参数估计和检验，到预测及误差和置信区间的计算，详细地说明了时间序列模型在物流需求预测中是如何应用的。结果表明该ARMA模型能够较好地拟合并可获得较高的中短期预测精度。     

需求势能理论在多级物流网络预选点中的应用

针对分销物流网络的特点,提出了基于服务时限的多级物流网络选址问题和选点思路,应用需求势能理论建立了多网点选址数学模型,并提出了详尽的求解方法和步骤。最后通过医药分销物流网络系统的实例分析,说明了该方法在网络选点过程中的模型化方法和求解步骤。     

Climate Change Taxes and Energy Efficiency in Japan

In 2003 Japan proposed a Climate Change Tax to reduce its CO₂ emissions to the level required by the Kyoto Protocol. If implemented, the tax would be levied on fossil fuel use and the revenue distributed to encourage the purchase of energy efficient equipment. Analysis using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model shows that this policy is unlikely to bring Japan into compliance with its Kyoto target unless the subsidy encourages improvement in energy intensity well beyond Japan’s recent historical experience. Similar demand-management programs in the US, where there has been extensive experience, have not been nearly as effective as they would need to be to achieve energy efficiency goals of the proposal. The Tax proposal also calls for limits on international emission trading. We find that this limit substantially affects costs of compliance. The welfare loss with full emissions trading is 1/6 that when Japan meets its target though domestic actions only, the carbon price is lower, and there is a smaller loss of energy-intensive exports. Japan can achieve substantial savings from emissions trading even under cases where, for example, the full amount of the Russian allowance is not available in international markets.     

Making green discourses matter in policy-making: Learning from discursive power struggles within the policy area of car taxation

This paper is about stability and change in the policy-making discourse of a traditional neoclassical policy area, the area of car taxation. Stability is here related to the unquestioned continuation of a traditional neoclassical economics perspective in policy-making, whereas change is related to the introduction and impact of environmental concerns. The aim of the paper is to investigate, what makes green discourses matter in traditional policy-making. It is based on an in-depth study of policy-making processes related to car taxation in two environmental front-runner countries, Sweden and Denmark.Making green discourses matter in policy-making is an important contemporary environmental challenge. Therefore, as Tian Shi argues, we need more research into the institutional setting of the policy-making process. Ecological economics as a policy science has to have a broad understanding of the political economic nature of the policy process. Taking this standpoint as the point of departure, the paper seeks to uncover questions such as, what is the policy-making reality in which Swedish and Danish green discourses have to make a difference? How do existing neoclassical regimes react, when green actors attempt to influence policy-making from an environmental point of view? And to what extent can green discourses actually have an impact on the policy world within the area of car taxation?The paper concludes that the traditional neoclassical economic discourse is particularly robust and resistant against alternative green discourses. Stability rather than change is the dominating picture. This does not imply that environmental concerns will not be taken into account in the future. Rather it implies that only the changes, which keep up the existing order, or enhance the narrow power-related interests of the dominating actors, will materialise more or less easily. The rest is a power struggle in which timing, coalition-building, persistence and thorough knowledge about the field in question is of importance. In this struggle change agents will also benefit from the ability to rethink dominating ways of thinking and doing in an environmentally benign way. A rethinking that is based on environmental values while at the same time holding positive visions that are ‘compatible’ with the existing dominating discourse.     

Uncertain Climate Change in an Intergenerational Planning Model

A three-generation planning model incorporating uncertain climate change is developed. Each generation features a production activity based on capital and an exhaustible resource. An irreversible climate change may occur in period two or three, reducing the productivity for this and the remaining generation. The model is solved by stochastic dynamic programming. If the climate impact and climate change probability is constant, the optimal period one (and two) resource extraction is larger than for the reference case of climate stability. If, however, climate impact and climate change probability increases with increased aggregate resource use, this result is reversed.     

中国经济体制改革时期制度变迁的特征分析

从实质上说，中国经济体制改革的过程就是一个制度的重建过程，即以适应市场经济的制度安排取代适应计划经济的制度安排取代适应计划经济的制度安排的过程。在这一制度重建的进程中，市场取向的制度变迁表现出八个方面的典型特征：一是制度变迁需求的内性性；二是制度变迁供给的滞后性；三是制度变迁目标的动态性；四是制度变迁过程的渐进性；五是制度变迁轨迹的路径依赖性；六是从单项制度变迁向制度结构变迁演进；七是强制性制度变迁与诱致性制度变迁相结合；八是宏观经济制度变迁与微观经济制度变迁同步进行。