Open economy and financial burden of corruption: theory and application to Asia

We discuss why corruption remains high and show that corruption contributes to the Banking distress and to the rapid transmission across international stock and currency markets. Undeveloped ‘derivative securities’ markets make the risk from stress-induced volatility difficult to manage. Vinod’s (1999) closed economy model is extended to indicate the asymmetry of ‘home bias’ and the effect of corruption on the value at risk (VaR). Our theory predicts that capital flight controls will be many, foreign direct investment (FDI) will be low and cost of capital will be high in corrupt developing countries, which is supported by Asian data. We include some policy recommendations regarding financial institutions and markets.     

The impacts of Hong Kong’s Currency Board reforms on the interbank market

Among the economies with a Currency Board System (CBS), Hong Kong (HK) is probably the one with the largest and most developed financial sector, as well as the highest capital mobility. Hence, studying HK’s CBS is not only crucial to HK, but also important for the understanding of the modern CBS. This paper outlines the major monetary reforms in HK since the late 1980s. The impacts of these reforms and the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis are then examined empirically. We focus on the differentials between the US and HK interbank interest rates. We assume the conditional-mean equation follows an autoregressive process and the conditional-variance equation follows a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process. This model captures the time-varying level and volatility of the differential. In light of the empirical results we provide an assessment of the reforms in HK.     

Operations of a Pension Fund after the Asian Crisis: The Thai Experience*

During and after the Asian crisis, institutional investors and pension funds in Asian financial markets have been confronted with a number of difficulties effecting their performance and the way they carry out their role within the national pension system. We analyze these problems by comparing the actual investment policy of an institutional investor with an optimal investment strategy derived from the insights of modern portfolio theory. We also analyze whether the organizational set‐up of a pension fund allows it to adequately perform its role within the pension system. As an example, we examine the operations of the Thai Government Pension Fund (GPF). We find that allowing international investments and reducing restrictions on equity investments while lowering the implicit requirements for investments in government debt would allow the GPF to further diversify its investment risk and to increase its risk‐adjusted return. We also show that some changes in the governance structure of the GPF would lower the occurrence of conflicts of interest for the management and increase the efficiency of the GPF operations.     

商业银行服务营销战略透析——以中国银行为例

美国次贷危机波及全球金融体系、金融产品及金融衍生产品的受信度受到质疑。我国的商业银行受此冲击强度较小，很大程度上取决于银行战略眼光和营销运作的成功。本文从营销战略的角度，结合中国银行服务营销的运行状况，对中国银行发展走势及营销战略进行深度透析。     

我国政府公共危机管理问责制的完善——基于矿难行政责任追究的视角

现阶段，我国政府公共危机管理的绩效评价工作才刚刚起步，“官员问责”还存在着一些问题。在政府公共危机管理体系中，绩效评价和问责是较为薄弱的一环。文章通过对我国近几年发生的六起煤矿特别重大事故行政责任追究结果的分析，厘清我国政府公共危机管理绩效评价和问责存在的问题。在此基础上，借鉴国外政府公共危机管理绩效评价工作的做法，提出应分别从问责目标、问责主体、问责对象、问责内容、问责程序和方法、问责结果的应用等方面完善我国政府公共危机管理问责制。     

The Workout of Banking Crises: A Macroeconomic Perspective

This paper provides a macroeconomic perspective for governmentinterventions in banking crisis. Such crisis occur when a largenumber of banks fail to meet capital requirements or are insolvent.Using a macroeconomic model with financial intermediation, ouranalyis suggests that strict enforcement of capital-adequaterules suffices in prosperous periods. Capital requirements serveas an indicator for crises interventions in critical stateswhich may require interest rate intervention and restructuringof the banking industry. These policies can be reinforced byrandom bailouts and temporary financial relief, with a largepercentage of the costs being covered by current and futureowners of banks. (JEL D41, E4, G2)     

The market’s view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons

Hall and Miles (1990) suggest an approach of estimating default probabilities of banks using stock market information, and in this paper we apply an aggregated version of their approach to banking sectors around the world in both developed and emerging economies. We study the market’s assessment of the probability of systemic banking crises world wide over the last decade, including the Asian crisis 1997–1998. In addition, we investigate whether there is a relationship between the failure probability and institutional features of the actual banking sector. The quality of governance and the degree of law and order in a country is found to be significantly negatively related to the market based failure probabilities as is an explicit deposit insurance during periods of crisis.     

物流企业如何进行危机管理

提出了危机的新内涵：灾难事件与异常事件。分析了危机产生的根源、危机的特点,并提出了危机处理的基本原则。以此为基础,结合物流企业运作的行业特点,分别深入探讨了灾难事件与异常事件给企业带来的危害,以及物流企业应当如何科学的处置危机,从而防范、减少危机事件给企业带来的负面影响,使物流企业保持长久的竞争力。     

商业银行风险管理

在WTO过渡时间表临近尾声的新阶段,伴随着利率市场化的不断推进、金融创新的显著发展、银行业重组整合对提升内部风险管理的新要求,中国商业银行应采他山之石,建立以内部控制管理为主体的风险管理框架,以解决风险管理中至今尚存的深层次矛盾。     

Do small businesses adjust their capital structure? Evidence from the global financial crisis in Japan

We investigate the extent to which small businesses adjust their capital structures to target levels when their leverage increases substantially during a financial crisis. We examine Japan's Emergency Credit Guarantee (ECG) program during the 2008 global financial crisis. The increased leverage from the use of the ECG program during the crisis increased the probability of default. Additionally, small businesses adjusted their leverage ratios to the target range before the crisis. However, such adjustments were weak during and after the crisis, particularly for target firms in the ECG program.