The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?

This paper studies the determinants of the euro exchange rate volatility during the European sovereign debt crisis, allowing a role for macroeconomic fundamentals, policy actions and the public debate by policy makers. It finds that the euro exchange rate mainly danced to its own tune, with a particularly low explanatory power for macroeconomic fundamentals. The findings of the paper also suggest that financial markets might have been less reactive to the public debate by policy makers than previously feared. Still, there are instances where exchange rate volatility increased in response to news, such as on days when several politicians from AAA-rated countries went public with negative statements, suggesting that communication by policy makers at times of crisis should be cautious about triggering undesirable financial market reactions.     

Granular institutional investors and global market interdependence

We study the propagation of global investment risk across markets through the granular view of institutional investors. Applying the conditional value-at-risk estimation to micro-level weekly observations of international mutual funds between 2003 and 2011, we find that idiosyncratic shocks to large institutional investors explain both aggregate market risk and cross-market risk interdependence. Conditional on the US capital markets being in financial distress, idiosyncratic shocks to the top 10% largest funds investing in the US explain about 40% of the risk fluctuations in other non-US markets. The findings are also economically and statistically significant for the top largest funds investing in non-US markets, with the effects becoming especially large during the global financial crisis of 2007–09. These results are robust after controlling for common risk factors and applying alternative measures of idiosyncratic shocks.     

Efficiency and productivity changes in Greek airports during the crisis years 2010–2014

The aim of this study is to evaluate the operating efficiency and productivity changes of the Greek airports, during the first years of the severe economic crisis in Greece (2010–2014), by using two methods: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malmquist Productivity index (MPI). Findings have shown that, despite the dramatic effects of the economic crisis on the socio-economic life of the country, overall airport efficiency and productivity improved, mainly due to exogenous factors such as international tourism growth. The MPI reveals that over the period of the study, airports have experienced an annual average increase in total factor productivity (TFP) of 0.9% (an increase of 3.6% over the examined period). On examining the components of this productivity change, it becomes evident that this is due to the combination of both positive (a slight progress) annual average technology change (0.5%) and technical efficiency change (0.4%). The results also indicate that 65.8% of airports have an increase in average TFP during the period 2010–2014, ranging between 0.4% and 20%. However, as Greek airports operate at poor levels of efficiency, there is still considerable space for improvements in most of the airports.     

Sentiment,mood and outbound tourism demand

We investigate spillover effects from sentiment and mood shocks on US outbound tourism demand from 1996 until 2013. We use the Index of Consumer Sentiment and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index as proxies for sentiment and the S&P500 as a proxy for mood. We find a moderate to high interrelationship among sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand. More importantly, sentiment and mood indicators are net transmitters of spillover shocks to outbound tourism demand. The magnitude of spillover effects sourced by sentiment and mood is time-varying and depends on certain socio-economic and environmental events. Our results have important implications for policymakers and travel agents in their efforts to predict tourism arrivals from key origin countries and to plan their tourism strategy.     

Does easing monetary policy increase financial instability?

This paper develops a model featuring both a macroeconomic and a financial friction that speaks to the interaction between monetary and macro-prudential policy and to the role of US monetary and regulatory policy in the run up to the Subprime mortgage crisis. There are two main results. First, interest rate rigidities in a monopolistic banking system increase the probability of a financial crisis (relative to the case of flexible interest rate) in response to contractionary shocks to the economy, while they act as automatic macro-prudential stabilizers in response to expansionary shocks. Second, when the interest rate is the only available instrument, monetary policy faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability. This trade off is both qualitative and quantitative in response to contractionary shocks, while it is only quantitative in response to positive shocks. We show that a second instrument, such as a Pigouvian tax on credit to households on the demand side of the market, is needed to restore efficiency in the economy when both frictions are at work.     

Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic

Traditionally, financial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWSs) have relied on macroeconomic leading indicators when forecasting the occurrence of such events. This paper extends such discrete-choice EWSs by taking the persistence of the crisis phenomenon into account. The dynamic logit EWS is estimated using an exact maximum likelihood estimation method in both a country-by-country and a panel framework. The forecasting abilities of this model are then scrutinized using an evaluation methodology which was designed recently, specifically for EWSs. When used for predicting currency crises for 16 countries, this new EWS turns out to exhibit significantly better predictive abilities than the existing static one, both in- and out-of-sample, thus supporting the use of dynamic specifications for EWSs for financial crises.     

金融危机下经济民族主义的回归与思辨

在介绍经济民族主义起源与思想本质的基础上,阐述了金融危机下经济民族主义的三种主要手段:保护贸易、保护资金、保护就业。在对经济民族主义展开理性分析的同时,结合金融危机下国际经济民族主义现状提出了我国的应对建议。     

国际金融危机下广东经济现状与发展趋势评析

广东的经济总量多年领先全国，遭遇国际金融危机后的广东经济呈现出若干特点，包括第三产业、民营经济、区域协调、科技进步等因素都展示了广东对危机的抵抗力，其发展趋势的后劲也可以预期。先行一步的广东对我国区域经济发展理念和规律的认识具有启示作用。     

Corporate giving in Taiwan: agency cost theory vs. value enhancement theory

This article examines the determinants of corporate giving (CG) in Taiwan according to agency cost (AC) and value enhancement (VE) theories. Panel regression test results reveal several new and interesting pieces of evidence. First, VE determinants outweigh AC determinants in explaining CG there. Second, the positive link between the current CG ratio (CGR) and the lagged CGR (CGR(-1)) suggests the consistent nature of CG. Third, after the global financial crisis in 2008, the influence of debt leverage on CGR vanished, but the impact of managerial insiders’ shareholdings on CGR became significant. Last, the influences of VE determinants and CGR(-1) on CGR remain during both pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Moreover, after the crisis, CG was still motivated to create current value for shareholders, and was apparently used as a business strategy to signal companies’ financial or managerial stability.     

The Impact of Foreign Banks on Monetary Policy Transmission During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009: Evidence from Korea

This article examines the impact of foreign banks on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Korean economy during the period from 2000 to 2012, with a specific focus on the lending behavior of banks with different types of ownership. Using bank-level panel data of the banking system in Korea, we present consistent evidence on the buffering impact that the foreign banks, especially foreign bank branches including US bank branches, on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Korea from the bank-lending channel perspective during the global financial crisis of 2008–2009.