德国应用科技大学的科研定位及对我国高职院校的启示

以德国维尔道应用科技大学为研究对象,分析了德国应用科技大学的成立基础、科研定位和科研现状。德国应用科技大学是以培养应用型人才为目标的高等学校,从事以应用为导向和贴近实践的科研和发展,科研定位侧重于技术开发与应用。与获得政治资本相比,大学教师更倾向于通过科研活动在学术界赢得认可和声望。结合我国高职院校实际,学校应该在项目立项、科研奖励、职称评定等方面都应该更加重视技术开发,要把应用研究作为学校科研的重点。     

Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals

This paper examines the role of nonfundamentals‐based sentiment in house price dynamics, including the well‐documented volatility and persistence of house prices during booms and busts. To measure and isolate sentiment's effect, we employ survey‐based indicators that proxy for the sentiment of three major agents in housing markets: home buyers (demand side), home builders (supply side), and lenders (credit suppliers). After orthogonalizing each sentiment measure against a broad set of fundamental variables, we find strong and consistent evidence that the changing sentiment of all three sets of market participants predicts house price appreciation in subsequent quarters, above and beyond the impact of changes in lagged price changes, fundamentals, and market liquidity. More specifically, a one‐standard‐deviation shock to market sentiment is associated with a 32–57 basis point increase in real house price appreciation over the next two quarters. These price effects are large relative to the average real price appreciation of 71 basis points per quarter observed over the full sample period. Moreover, housing market sentiment and its effect on real house prices is highly persistent. The results also reveal that the dynamic relation between sentiment and house prices can create feedback effects that contribute to the persistence typically observed in house price movements during boom and bust cycles.     

Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.     

Semiparametric Model of Hedonic Housing Prices in Japan

We propose a semiparametric hedonic model of housing prices with nonlinearity in age and cohort effects. The model avoids the simultaneity problem among age, cohort and year effects, which is a common problem in linear hedonic models. Applying the model to housing prices in Tokyo between 1990 and 2008 revealed significant nonlinearities in both the age and cohort effects, and significant interactions between these effects, with the shape of the age effect differing across housing cohorts. Estimates of the year effect indicated a declining trend in prices that was more pronounced compared with those of conventional linear hedonic models.     

国际股票市场收益率和波动率的长记忆性研究

股票市场长记忆性问题是金融学研究的一个热点问题,对于市场有效性的研究和系统非线性结构的分析有着重要的意义。本文运用修正R/S分析和V/S分析两种方法对世界上28个国家(地区)的股票指数的日、周收益序列和日、周收益波动序列进行了完整的长记忆性研究。结果表明:对于收益序列,以美国为代表的大多数发达国家股市一般不存在长记忆性,而中国等发展中国家大多存在显著的长记忆性,尤其中国股市的长记忆性最强;对于收益波动序列,所有国家(地区)都具有长记忆性,并强于收益序列。     

New business formation and employment growth: some evidence for the Spanish manufacturing industry

This paper explores the effects of new business formation on employment growth in Spanish manufacturing industries. New firms are believed to make an important contribution to economic growth but the extent of this contribution is unclear. We consider time lags of new firm formation as explanatory variables of employment change and identify how long the effect of new firm entries on employment lasts. Our main results show that the effects of new business formation are positive in the short term, negative in the medium term and positive in the long term, thus confirming the existence of indirect supply-side effects found in similar studies for other countries.

Market size and tax competition

With international externalities, different country sizes, imperfect competition, and trade costs, tax competition for mobile firms is efficiency-enhancing with respect to the free market outcome. Under both scenarios, the resulting inefficiencies in international specialization and trade flows vanish when trade costs are low enough. Otherwise, only international tax coordination can implement the efficient spatial distribution of firms.     

层次分析法在出口玩具检验监管风险评估中的应用研究

在对出口玩具检验监管工作研究分析的基础上,选取了具有代表性的指标体系,并引入层次分析法科学地确定各个指标的权重。通过建立层次结构模型、构造判断矩阵、相对权重及合成权重的计算,利用较少的定量信息,将整个考核指标过程数学化。最后,针对进一步完善和改进出口玩具检验监管风险评估工作提出合理化建议。     

中俄能源合作现状分析及对策研究

在当今世界，能源已经成为各个国家最关注的问题之一。俄罗斯有着天然的能源优势，是能源供应大国，而中国是能源需求大国，因此，中俄两国开展能源合作拥有广阔的前景。本文在分析中俄能源合作的现状及战略意义的基础上，从理论的角度分析了两国进行能源合作的可行性，并从现实的角度分析了中俄能源合作的障碍，从而对如何进一步加深中俄能源合作提出了对策建议。     

Internal Versus External R&D: A Study of R&D Choice with Sample Selection

This paper extends previous analyses of the choice between internal and external R&D to consider the costs of internal R&D. The Heckman two-stage estimator is used to estimate the determinants of internal R&D unit cost (i.e. cost per product innovation) allowing for sample selection effects. Theory indicates that R&D unit cost will be influenced by scale issues and by the technological opportunities faced by the firm. Transaction costs encountered in research activities are allowed for and, in addition, consideration is given to issues of market structure which influence the choice of R&D mode without affecting the unit cost of internal or external R&D. The model is tested on data from a sample of over 500 UK manufacturing plants which have engaged in product innovation. The key determinants of R&D mode are the scale of plant and R&D input, and market structure conditions. In terms of the R&D cost equation, scale factors are again important and have a non-linear relationship with R&D unit cost. Specificities in physical and human capital also affect unit cost, but have no clear impact on the choice of R&D mode. There is no evidence of technological opportunity affecting either R&D cost or the internal/external decision.