Viability of Amazon’s driven innovations targeting shoppers’ impulsiveness

The growth of new technological innovations has given rise to a highly digitized retailing world that is re-defining the consumer purchase journey. Innovations, such as Amazon's Alexa, Dash-buttons (physical and virtual), and Spark, have indeed led to the creation of an Omni-channel journey that reshaped the shopping experience. Such tech-disruptions are likely to have a significant bearing on shoppers, brands and retailers, which is expected to vary between the short and the long-term. A quantitative research based on 600 U.S. Amazon customers studied the long-term incremental sales effect of e-retailers' tech innovations when driven by impulsive shopping behavior. The findings show that while retailers' tech-driven solutions would increase shoppers' impulsiveness, and hence sales, their continued interaction with such purchasing solutions would decline over time, making the overall innovation cycle much shorter.     

平台型企业跨界经营中的跨市场网络效应与颠覆性创新

平台型企业跨界进入新领域并进行颠覆式创新成为互联网时代的一种新趋势。平台企业具有大规模用户资源、跨市场网络效应、先进创新模式等优势，因此其跨界创新行为与传统后发企业创新行为相比有特殊之处。通过建立数理模型进行实证分析，得到如下结论：与传统后发企业类似，在位企业拥有的用户安装基础和产品网络外部性仍是平台企业跨界经营与跨界创新的阻碍；与传统后发企业不同的是，除市场突破战略外，技术创新突破战略也对平台跨界经营和跨界创新具有推动作用；平台企业拥有的大规模用户资源、跨市场网络效应以及先进创新模式均有利于提高其跨界产品创新程度。     

人工智能关键核心技术创新能力测度体系构建：基于创新生态系统视角

突破关键核心技术是“十四五”时期我国建设世界科技强国面临的重要问题。人工智能作为科技变革的核心力量,科学合理地评价其技术创新能力,对提升我国科技竞争力具有重要意义。基于创新生态系统视角,从创新主体、创新环境和系统效益3个维度对我国人工智能关键核心技术创新能力进行测度。结果发现：①我国人工智能关键核心技术创新能力逐年增强,创新主体数量、企业研发资金、算法等成为主要影响因素。其中,创新主体数量对关键核心技术创新能力的影响高于资源投入;②基础研究在关键核心技术创新过程中扮演着举足轻重的角色;③算法、数据和算力是提升人工智能关键核心技术的三大显著性影响因素,其与该技术生命周期密切相关。我国应坚持创新导向,培育多元创新主体,持续鼓励算法研究,加快开放平台建设和技术标准制定,协调技术发展与治理的关系,实现我国在关键核心技术领域的突破。     

Opportunities for disruption

In view of the importance of Disruptive Innovations (DIs) in both emerging and advanced economies, a better understanding of how to cultivate opportunities for DIs is called for. We provide case study exemplars that illustrate how entrepreneurs have deliberately undertaken DIs for customers of low-end and new markets. Our findings show how the entrepreneurial opportunities embedded in these DIs are purposefully discovered and created. By extending research on the generation of entrepreneurial opportunities into the arena of disruptive innovations, the paper aims to contribute to understanding of both DI and the nature of opportunity generation and to provide a basis for guidance to practitioners.     

颠覆性技术与商业模式共演过程研究

以浙江绿源电动自行车为案例研究对象，采用纵向案例研究方法，探索了颠覆性技术与商业模式共演过程，归纳了各阶段颠覆性技术与商业模式的渐次演化规律，即颠覆性技术经历了技术集成—技术调整—技术升级的演变，商业模式经历了生存导向—低盈利导向—品牌导向的演变，继而分析了各阶段颠覆性技术与商业模式的静态适配及动态协同演化关系，发现两者动态匹配是实现可持续颠覆性效果的重要模式，对后发企业获取竞争优势具有重要启示。     

A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises

In technological forecasting and futures research on social change, the term wild card (a.k.a. disruptor or STEEP surprise), traditionally refers to a plausible future event that is estimated to have low probability but high impact should it occur.This article introduces:

1.

A Type II Wild Card, defined as having high probability and high impact as seen by experts if present trends continue, but low credibility for non-expert stakeholders of importance.

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A four-level typology of wild cards, leading to a systematic methodology for monitoring the emerging awareness and credibility of high probability disruptors and for assessment of stakeholder-specific views about them.

An informal pilot test of the methodology both indicated that the approach has practical value, and highlighted the importance of highly plausible tipping points which could rapidly lead to massive disruption, either toward collapse or reformation in the complex adaptive systems (CAS) making up human civilization.For reasons of historical continuity, wild card-related nomenclature is used throughout the majority of this article although the term STEEP Surprise is advocated for further work. (STEEP being a frequently used acronym denoting five conceptual sectors of importance.)Suggestions for further work include:

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Research on how to diminish the discounting of Type II phenomena by institutional leaders

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Monitoring of transitions in the perceived credibility of critical Type II STEEP Surprises by thought leaders

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A Snowball Survey of wisdom leaders having multidisciplinary expertise from all walks of life to identify specific Type II possibilities (especially positive ones), they see as having greatest importance

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A Cooperative Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises for sharing of intelligence on highly probable/highly disruptive events, together with plausible impacts and proactive policies.

     

基于破坏性创新的竞争策略分析

产业中的领导者被新进者取代式的破坏性创新在理论和实践上具有重要意义。本文运用案例方法分析创新者如何实施低阶破坏性创新与新市场破坏性创新;市场领导者如何对抗应对这两种破坏性创新。     

广东省深圳市华为技术有限公司人力资源管理思考及对策

深圳市华为技术有限公司在短短的十几年间却发展成为一家大型的通信设备制造厂商。文章先介绍了深圳华为公司人力资源管理概况,然后分析了人力资源管理现状,并提出了相应的对策。最后指出了深圳华为公司人力资源管理创新之路。     

Determining demand, supply, and pricing for emerging markets based on disruptive process technologies

A model for forecasting the likely market size and demand for an early-stage emerging process technology is considered. This method takes into account markets, supply, demand, supply/demand gap, pricing, implications to government policy, corporate strategy, and value of intellectual property. For the purpose of illustration, forecasting of microsystems is considered.     

Disruptive technology roadmaps

Disruptive technologies create growth in the industries they penetrate or create entirely new industries through the introduction of products and services that are dramatically cheaper, better, and more convenient. These disruptive technologies often disrupt workforce participation by allowing technologically unsophisticated individuals to enter and become competitive in the industrial workforce. Disruptive technologies offer a revolutionary change in the conduct of processes or operations.Disruptive technologies can evolve from the confluence of seemingly diverse technologies or can be a result of an entirely new technological investigation. Existing planning processes are notoriously poor in identifying the mix of sometimes highly disparate technologies required to address the multiple performance objectives of a particular niche in the market. For a number of reasons, especially the inability to look beyond short-term profitability, and the risk/return tradeoff of longer term projects, it is suggested that current strategic planning and management processes promote sustaining technologies at the expense of disruptive technologies.We propose a systematic approach to identify disruptive technologies that is realistic and operable and takes advantage of the text mining literature. This literature-based discovery process is especially useful in identifying potential disruptive technologies that may require the input from many diverse technological and management areas. We believe that this process holds great potential for identifying projects with a higher probability of downstream success. Further, we suggest a process to take the identified potential disruptive technology from the “idea stage” through to the development of a potentially feasible product for the market. This second stage makes use of workshops and roadmapping to codify the ideas of technological and management experts, who were identified in the literature-based discovery stage. Our goal is to describe and explain the pragmatic steps suggested by our innovative and practical process.The proposed process could identify technologies whose eventual development and application to specific problems would generate innovative products. The goal is to isolate technologies that have the potential to redefine an industry, or alternatively, have the potential to create an entirely new industrial setting. Use the text-mining component of literature-based discovery to identify both the technical disciplines that are likely candidates for disruptive technological products, and experts in these critical technical and managerial disciplines. While we know that this is but one way to investigate nascent disruptive technologies we feel it is imperative that the representatives of these potentially critical technical disciplines are included in the roadmap development process, either as implementers or as consultants.Every firm is looking for “the next great thing”. Literature-based discovery offers a starting point for identifying at least a portion of the major contributory technical and managerial disciplines necessary for potential disruptive technologies and discontinuous innovations. Combining literature-based discovery with a practical workshop/roadmap process dramatically enhances the likelihood of success.