A simple model of macroeconomic policy

This paper develops a simple model of macroeconomic policy in which the government minimizes a loss function with inflation and unemployment as arguments, subject to a Phillips curve constraint. The model is solved and a discrete time approximation taken. The model's empirical predictions are derived and some test results are presented.     

The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy

This paper describes the structure and properties of the Federal Reserve Board's (MPS) econometric model of the US economy. The theoretical underpinnings are developed using a small growth model that is a simplified version of the steady-state structure of the full model. Short-run dynamic properties, which are Keynesian, are discussed and quantified with simulation results. The largest part of the paper consists of a discussion of the theoretical basis and empirical properties of the key behavioural equations. A complete list of equations is included.     

Disruption management in distributed enterprises: A multi-agent modelling and simulation of cooperative recovery behaviours

Disruption management in industrial areas consists in dealing with unanticipated events that get the plans deviate from their intended course. The solution results from the design and the maintenance of an operating mode ensuring a relevant deployment of individual recovery behaviours.The paper proposes an approach to minimize the impact of disrupting events on the whole system. It is based on an analysis of disrupting events and the characterization of the recovery process, and on a cooperative repair method for distributed industrial systems. This method is based on a cooperative distributed problem solving approach supported by a multi-agent system framework.     

开放条件下的R＆D与比较优势的动态变化

文章探讨了比较优势实现动态变化的路径问题，并着重讨论专业化的研发投入（R＆D）对比较实现动态变化的影响，认为绝对的研发效率是比较优势实现动态转化的条件。在此基础上，讨论了动态比较优势与福利增长之间的关系，结论表明，比较优势实现动态变化对于保证福利水平的长期增长来说是必不可少的。     

基于LSSC的物流企业成长机理——探索性多案例研究

文章基于"资源-能力-成长"的企业成长理论模型,对服务供应链、组织间网络和动态能力理论进行了梳理,报告了物流服务供应链(Logistics Service Supply Chain,LSSC)的网络属性对核心企业成长的影响的研究现状,并提出了文章的研究框架,通过采用探索性多案例的研究方法,对三个典型民营物流企业进行了调查,通过三个案例的一级编码、二级编码和三级编码,得出以下研究结论:物流服务供应链的网络结构和网络关系可以直接促进物流企业成长;物流服务供应链的网络结构和网络关系也可以通过动态能力的作用促进物流企业成长。研究表明:第三方物流企业的成长要通过网络化战略来实现,通过构建物流服务供应链模式,汲取组织间资源、提升企业动态能力并最终实现企业成长。     

负面清单的行业选择与动态调整

负面清单单内行业选择标准,是我国进一步开放自由贸易区的重要问题。巴格瓦蒂的次优理论可以作为制订负面清单对单内行业进行特殊监管的理论基础。当前应把由于市场不完全、信息不完整而存在着外部性扭曲、增长潜力扭曲的行业置入负面清单,进行特殊监管,审慎对等开放。此外,还可以通过对单内行业的动态出单来增加行业活力,扩大开放水平。     

项目进度绩效指标的改进及其动态性预测

传统的挣值方法中,进度指标的预测多表现单期、静态的特性,存在严重的局限性。为了改进和完善挣值管理方法中进度指标体系,在考虑时间序列的基础上,将统计方法引入挣值管理进度指标体系中,用更加科学的方法对项目进度指标进行描述,并在此基础上基于贝叶斯推断方法,加入专家意见,从统计学的角度提出了进度绩效指数的动态预测模型,因而,可以为项目管理者提供科学的据侧依据。     

国际金融市场波动溢出效应与动态相关性

在DCC GARCH、DCC EGARCH、DCC TGARCH方法下,采用中、美、日、德、英等国家1993年1月至2013年12月的金融数据,实证得出如下结论：样本国市场利率和股指波动率呈现尖峰、肥尾、有偏的特征,更为符合t分布。样本国市场利率波动表现出显著的溢出效应、杠杆效应和联动效应。样本国股指波动率对中国股指波动率的溢出效应趋于增强,特别在美国金融危机后。样本国利率波动对中国股指波动率具有一定的溢出效应和杠杆效应,但影响程度非常低。治理世界性金融风险,各国当局应加强政策协调性,合理进行风险分担。