Foreign exchange exposure of “domestic” corporations

Unlike prior studies on foreign exchange risk that have focused on multinational companies, this paper documents that domestic companies face significant foreign exchange exposure. Indeed, we document that on average domestic company foreign exchange exposure is not significantly different from the exposures faced by multinational firms. As expected, the number of domestic firms with significant foreign exchange exposure increases with the exposure estimation horizon. More interestingly, the level of domestic firm exposure is significantly negatively related to firm size and asset turnover, and positively related to the market to book ratio and financial leverage. Our results have important implications for managers, policy makers, and accounting standards.     

Narratives in managers’ corporate finance decisions

This article uses the extended case method to explore senior executives’ corporate finance decisions. We quantified firm’s finance practices using a mail survey, and then – to resolve puzzles in managers’ decision processes – conducted face‐to‐face interviews with chief finance officers of large listed firms. The interviews identified six themes as consistent influences on finance decisions: pressures imposed by clienteles; constraints on resources; risk management; heuristics; real options; and sustainability. We conclude that managers are logical and rational in their decisions, but employ a wider range of criteria than assumed in conventional finance theories.     

Dealing with financial instability under a DSGE modeling approach with banking intermediation: A predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs

In the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) literature there has been an increasing awareness on the role that the banking sector can play in macroeconomic activity. We present a DSGE model with financial intermediation as in Gertler and Karadi (2011). The estimation of shocks and of the structural parameters shows that time-variation should be crucial in any attempted empirical analysis. Since DSGE modelling usually fails to take into account inherent nonlinearities of the economy, we propose a novel time-varying parameter (TVP) state-space estimation method for VAR processes both for homoskedastic and heteroskedastic error structures. We conduct an exhaustive empirical exercise to compare the out-of-sample predictive performance of the estimated DSGE model with that of standard ARs, VARs, Bayesian VARs and TVP-VARs. We find that the TVP-VAR provides the best forecasting performance for the series of GDP and net worth of financial intermediaries for all steps-ahead, while the DSGE model outperforms the other specifications in forecasting inflation and the federal funds rate at shorter horizons.     

XXHA-3505曝光曲线的制作

本文介绍了使用阶梯试块制作周向X射线机曝光曲线的原理及操作步骤,并借助EXCEL作为分析工具绘制曝光曲线。     

Foreign exchange exposure and multinationality

We examine the relation between firms’ foreign exchange exposure and the extent of their multinationality as a proxy for operational hedging. Using a sample of 953 US firms over the period 1999–2006, we show that there is a nonlinear relation between operational and financial hedging, confirming anecdotal evidence that many highly multinational firms do not hedge with derivatives. We find that operational hedging and financial hedging are significantly inversely related to firms’ foreign exchange exposure, providing evidence that the two hedging techniques are complementary for all but the most highly operationally hedged firms. By comparing our findings for 1999–2006 with 1999–2009, we show that this complementarity breaks down when exchange rate volatility is high – as the effectiveness of financial hedging diminishes. An important message for firms is that operational hedges work, and they potentially provide better protection than financial hedging during times of stress.     

Accounting for population exposure to vehicle-generated pollutants and environmental equity in the toll design problem

The emissions generated by motor vehicles remain a major source of air pollutants that affect public health and contribute to anthropogenic climate change. These negative externalities can be reduced, in part, with the implementation of environmentally oriented road pricing schemes, which can be designed using optimization-based approaches. In this paper, a toll design problem is proposed for determining toll locations and levels that minimize the expected human exposure to air pollutants and the related environmental inequalities, subject to constraints on pollutant concentration levels and implementation costs. The practical use of the proposed problem is hindered in most real-world applications by the computational costs associated with the evaluation of candidate solutions, as is common for network design problems. Furthermore, the problem cannot be expressed analytically given the multiple types of models (e.g., traffic assignment, emissions, air dispersion models) that would be required to evaluate a single design alternative. For these reasons, a derivative-free surrogate-based solution algorithm is proposed for mixed integer problems like the ones considered here. Numerical examples are used to illustrate possible applications of the proposed model and to test the performance of the surrogate-based algorithm. Relative to a joint simulated annealing-genetic algorithm heuristic and a genetic algorithm-based approach, the proposed algorithm found better solutions in fewer function evaluations.     

Measuring macroeconomic exposure: The case of Volvo Cars*

Volvo Cars' economic exposure to exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables is estimated using quarterly cash flows as the firm's target variable. We discuss first several issues relating to management's view of the macroeconomic environment, as well as the firm's objective and structure. These issues must be addressed before multiple regression analysis can be implemented with the purpose of estimating exposures. the use of cash flow exposure coefficients for evaluating exposure and choosing currency denomination of liabilities is illustrated, and an out-of-sample analysis of the estimated exposure coefficients is carried out.     

新汇率体制下中国上市公司外汇风险暴露研究

本文以沪市180指数样本股作为研究对象,通过测量上市公司经营活动产生的现金流相对贸易加权汇率指数及我国主要贸易伙伴货币汇率变化的敏感度,来考察我国企业的外汇风险暴露问题。研究显示,我国上市公司总体外汇风险暴露程度比较高,公司规模与短期外汇风险成正比关系,外国控股程度的高低对风险暴露则没有明显的影响。     

Long-term U.S. infrastructure returns and portfolio selection

Our understanding of the long-term return behavior and portfolio characteristics of public infrastructure investments is limited by a relatively short history of empirical data. We re-construct U.S. listed infrastructure index returns by mapping their monthly performance to received systematic and industry risk factors from 1927 through 2010. Our findings reveal that the infrastructure returns in recent years may understate the tail-risk that investors could experience over the long-term, however, this tail-risk is commensurate with holding a broad portfolio of U.S. stocks. For mean-variance and mean-CVaR investors, we report the benefits of holding public infrastructure assets in investment portfolios.     

Policy uncertainty,the use of derivatives: Evidence from U.S. bank holdingcompanies (BHCs)

We explore the link between bank holding companies’ hedging in derivatives and economic policy uncertainty using a newspaper-based index of policy uncertainty. Interestingly, we find that bank holding companies use derivatives less intensively in states where policy uncertainty is high (they hedge against homogenous (tradable) risk only); instead, they allocate their risk exposure via lending (thus increasing their credit risk). This finding is robust to different combinations of data samples, including the usage of only fourth quarter data, annual data, excluding bank mergers and acquisitions, and the results are robust to sample selection.