中韩FTA框架下贸易便利化的若干思考

始于2012年5月的中韩自由贸易协定谈判迄今已进行13轮,有望在年底完成谈判.伴随着未来中韩自由贸易区的建立,预期双边贸易稳步增长,贸易自由化程度不断提高,双边90％的产品将实现零关税,关税壁垒的不断消除使得自由贸易步伐加快.但是口岸效率不高、通关程序繁琐、卫生检疫等技术性壁垒都将阻碍要素的跨境流动,因此简化和协调货物在中韩贸易中所涉及的各种程序,已成为两国所追求的一个目标.     

《欧盟--哥伦比亚、秘鲁自由贸易协定》透视 及其对中国的启示

《欧洲联盟及其成员国与哥伦比亚、秘鲁自由贸易协定》内容丰富,在货物与服务贸易、知识产权等方面设置高标准规定的同时,对可持续发展、技术援助及合作等国际新兴议题也有细致条款。该协定还首次开放地方当局采购,设立民间团体对话监督机制。这些举措有助于加快欧盟进军拉美市场的步伐,进一步促进欧盟与安第斯共同体两大区域组织间的经济融合。借鉴和参考其中的特色条文,势必有利于中国自贸协定文本的健全与完善,并为中国的拉美合作战略提供理论基础。     

中国与新西兰双边贸易的发展及签署FTA的经济效益

2008年4月7日,中华人民共和国政府和新西兰政府签订了自由贸易协定,新西兰是首个与中国签署全面自由贸易协定的发达国家,同时,对新西兰来说,与中国签署FTA也是它与澳大利亚签署更为密切的经济关系协议以来,最大的双边贸易协定.由此可见中新签署的FTA对两国都有重大的意义.本文介绍了中新双边贸易发展的情况及中新签署FTA的历史进程和主要内容,重点分析了中新建立FTA后产生的贸易效应、双方更利于发挥比较优势和推动相互投资的情况,以及建立FTA后产生的示范效应和对两国福利的影响,从而对中新签署FTA的意义有更深刻的认识.     

Towards better participatory processes in technology foresight: How to link participatory foresight research to the methodological machinery of qualitative research and phenomenology?

Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not possible without qualitative analyses. Therefore, the social and psychological dimensions of reality form an important part of technology foresight. Qualitative research will be needed to understand superficial and deep structures of social realities. So called push and pull factors are always linked to social behaviour. People's relationship to the use of technologies and the utilization of technologies is a complex and not a one-dimensional or monological issue. Monological methodological approaches can be harmful and confusing in the field of participatory foresight. We can conclude that the cycles of deductive and inductive logic are needed in science and in participatory foresight studies. Experts of the FTA community must have a higher level of methodological know-how in this research field and they should use qualitative methods in multi-faceted (external and internal) ways in foresight studies. Still the qualitative parts of many studies are quite monological and these studies can be quite problematic, even confusing. More critical methodological approaches should be taken into serious consideration. As a methodological approach, the principle of triangulation should be used more in the fields of participatory foresight studies and technology foresight.The key focus of this article in the use of qualitative and phenomenological approaches in the fields of FTA and foresight. The aim of this theoretically oriented discussion is to promote the professional use of qualitative methods in foresight and FTA studies. The strength of qualitative analyses is linked to deeper understanding of social change and social patterns and structures. Actually people create and constitute the markets, networks, and crowds where technologies are applied and used.Internal systemic understanding of social realities is an important part of foresight activities, especially in participatory foresight studies. Internal and external analyses can be seen as complementary approaches, like qualitative and quantitative approaches. The use of qualitative methods is a conventional part of the research process in participatory foresight projects. A typical problem may be that the use of methods is not planned carefully enough and people are unaware of the underlying key assumptions of applied methods. Experimenting with phenomenology is not a simple task in foresight research. Therefore, the views and informative platforms expressed and presented in this article may be useful for foresight practitioners.     

Assessment of the Economic Benefits From U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF)’s Marketing Investment in South Korea

In 2007, the United States and South Korea agreed for partial access of U.S. beef to South Korea under the Korea–U.S. (KORUS) FTA concession, and started to import sizable U.S. beef to South Korea in 2008 despite some negative sentiments of Korean consumers for U.S. beef due to the safety concerns. From 2011 to 2015, the USMEF is scheduled to invest approximately US$10 million on promotion of U.S. beef in South Korea. Thus, it is important to access effectiveness of USMEF promotional strategies and to justify accountability of its marketing investment in the Korean beef market. The objective of this study is to estimate the economic impact of USMEF marketing investment for beef on U.S. beef performance in South Korea. The study determines the effectiveness of USMEF’s generic beef market development and promotion program in South Korea, by developing an econometric import demand model for U.S. beef and eliciting benefit–cost ratio (BCR) of USMEF’s promotion investment. From this analysis, (1) the relationships between selected uncontrollable and controllable economic variables and the U.S. beef demand in South Korea are assessed; and (2) with BCR simulation analysis, the return on promotion investment (ROI) of USMEF is derived.     

Market Power of Domestic Marketers and its Influence on the Consequences of the Korea–US and Korea–Australia FTAs on the Beef Market

Domestic, US and Australian beef, which are differentiated by country of origin, are sold in Korea. In this differentiated product market, tariff reductions through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are expected to strengthen the competitiveness of imported beef and, therefore, to mitigate the effects arising from the market power of domestic marketers. The present study develops a simulation model that evaluates this mitigating effect by explicitly reflecting the market structure that domestic beef marketers constitute. The simulation results indicate that the farm-retail marketing margin would decrease by 10.59% or 6.79% due to the Korea–US and Korea–Australia FTAs, respectively, if domestic beef marketers formed a cartel or an oligopoly market (i.e. the degree of market power is 0.5), while the marketing margin under a competitive market scenario is simulated to have no change. The value of beef production would decrease by 1009 million dollars if the marketers form a cartel and hence exercise monopoly power. The FTAs are simulated to reduce the value of beef production by 564 million dollars under the competitive market scenario.     

FTA网络中的H＆S结构研究

自上个世纪80年代以来，双边贸易自由化与区域经济一体化已成为世界经济发展的重要趋势。这导致了以双边自由贸易协定为主的区域贸易协定大量涌现，形成了众多互相交织的“轴心——辐条”结构（H＆S结构）。虽然已经有一些学者对H＆S结构进行了比较深入的研究，但利用经济学模型对H＆S结构进行系统研究的还较少。这导致了现有研究对于某些问题，比如H＆S结构是否存在边界、辐条拓补对H＆S结构有何影响等的解释还较为模糊。为了弥补H＆S结构研究在这方面的不足，本文以一个传统区域经济一体化理论框架下的多国互相倾销模型为基础，对H＆S结构的特点进行了系统的研究。通过模型推演，笔者除了对H＆S结构的非对称收益特性进行了验证外，还发现H＆S结构边界与市场规模，边际成本及关税相关．同时辐条拓补有助于H＆S结构边界的拓展。同时笔者还在新区域主义理论框架下，对H＆S结构轴心边际收益进锈了分析，     

自由贸易区贸易效应研究方法综述

区域经贸合作已成为各国协调贸易政策的主导力量，尤其在2000年以后，区域经济自由化的发展对区域贸易效应产生了很大的影响。因此，本文就FTA贸易效应的研究方法及其研究结果进行了总结，以便为进一步的研究提供参考。     

中韩两国自贸区战略对比及双边自贸区谈判展望

作为东亚重要的经济体,中韩两国近年来都走在积极推进对外自贸区建设,并取得了较大进展。尽管两国对外贸易依存度都处于较高的水平,但由于经济规模、贸易规模的差异,两国的自贸区战略也存在很大的差异。通过分析中韩两国的自贸区战略,可以发现中韩之间构建自贸区将是下一步双方战略的交汇点。尽管自贸区的达成会造成双方国内行业利益的分配不均,但双方政府可以通过在自贸区谈判中采取必要的例外或过渡期安排来完成双边的自贸区构建。     

中国FTA战略研究:双边贸易关系的视角

文章以中国计划签订自由贸易协定的12个国家为样本,从双边贸易关系的角度,对中国FTA战略安排进行了分析。结果显示:(1)中国与南非、巴西等8国的贸易关系不够紧密,同时存在着双边贸易关系恶化的趋势,贸易关系有待改善;(2)中国与澳大利亚、新西兰、南非、巴西、秘鲁、冰岛和沙特阿拉伯的贸易结构呈互补性,短期内改善与这些国家的贸易关系较为有利;(3)贸易距离成本仍然是阻碍双边贸易的一个显著因素。同时,贸易伙伴国之间的人均收入水平差异,也是影响双边贸易流量的一个重要因素。地理位置接近、人均收入水平差异较小的国家是理想的FTA伙伴国。