对人民币汇率和通货膨胀的思考

2005年7月汇改后,人民币汇率兑美元呈现加速升值的走势。与此同时,国内居民消费价格指数(CPI)上扬,人民币国内购买力呈贬值态势。物价的上涨使大多数劳动者无法从人民币汇率升值中受益,也将使人民币兑美元升值现象难以持久。本文认为在当前人民币兑美元汇率仍存在升值预期下应未雨绸缪,积极疏导流动性过剩,稳定物价水平。     

Intergovernmental transfers and fiscal behavior insurance versus aggregate discipline

This paper evaluates the trade-off between the advantages of risk sharing and the perils of common pool problems in federal fiscal arrangements. Under the assumption of asymmetric information we evaluate two alternative regimes of intergovernmental transfers. In one regime, the central government pre-commits to a certain level of transfers that compensate vertical fiscal imbalances and provide some limited ex-ante insurance. In the other regime, it accommodates ex-post the fiscal needs of the different provinces. In this second case, full-insurance results, but the economy is subject to a tragedy of the fiscal commons, with excessive subnational spending, insufficient local taxation, and reduced production of federal public goods. We find the range of parameters for which one or the other institutional regime will be preferable. The result is a fiscal-federalism version of the usual trade-off between rules and discretion.     

承接“二个转移”推进内蒙古优势特色产业升级的思考

近年来,以跨国公司为主导的国际资本扩大了在中国西部地区的产业转移。与此同时,中国东部地区基于降低营运成本等考虑,也加快了向中西部地区的产业转移。内蒙古面对国际、国内产业转移的良好机遇,凭借其资源优势成为热点承接地区。承接"二个转移",对于提升内蒙古优势特色产业的产业竞争力具有重要意义。内蒙古应积极优化投资环境、引导产业投向、增强产业配套能力,推进承接"二个转移",并以此带动本地区优势特色产业的优化升级。     

当前我国收入分配领域存在的突出问题与对策

当前我国收入分配领域存在居民收入和劳动报酬两个比重偏低,垄断行业收入畸高名不副实,社会转移分配平衡收入差距作用不足,群体间收入差距呈现全范围多层次的扩大趋势等突出问题,解决这些问题需要用发展和改革的眼光、思路和办法促进经济健康发展,坚持以人为本的分配理念努力提高普通劳动者收入,完善社会主义市场经济体制创造平等致富的环境,紧紧抓住社会转移分配的灵魂"公平",全方位缩小收入差距,使劳动者通过第三次分配获得捐赠性收入,通过第四次分配获得财产性收入。     

An Iterative Process for International Negotiations on Acid Rain in Northern Europe Using a General Convex Formulation

This paper proposes a game theoretical approach of internationalnegotiations on transboundary pollution. This approach is distinguished bya discrete time formulation and by a suitable formulation of the localinformation assumption on cost and damage functions: at each stage of thenegotiation, the parties assign the best possible cooperative state, giventhe available information, as an objective for the next stage. It is shownthat the resulting sequences of states converges from a non-cooperativesituation to an international optimum in a finite number of stages.Furthermore, a financial transfer structure is also presented that makesthe desired sequence of states individually rational and stategically stable.The concepts are applied in a numerical simulation of the SO₂transboundary pollution problem related to acid rain in Northern Europe.     

A note on the Bourguignon–Fields class of poverty indices

Current poverty measurement methodology does not allow a definitive analysis of changes in distribution, through time or between countries, which involve changes in the number or proportion of poor people. By revisiting the continuity and transfer axioms, we show that within the Bourguignon and Fields (1997) class of poverty indices a range of value judgements can be accommodated as to what happens (or should happen) in the case that poverty-line crossings result from regressive transfers. In exposing this, we hope to provide empirical analysts with wider scope to use the Bourguignon–Fields poverty indices in an informed way.     

The Welfare State, Budgetary Pressure and Labour Market Shifts

Public debate about the welfare state in OECD countries has emphasized the need for reform to meet a twofold set of shocks: budgetary pressure and a labour market shift against unskilled workers. The aim of the paper is to set out a framework for examining the implications of these shocks for the optimal scale of social transfers and, in particular, the impact on different societies, distinguishing a restricted welfare state, labelled "the United States" and a more extensive welfare state, labelled "Continental Europe".