开放经济条件下我国游资规模的测算研究

自2005年汇率改革以来,在人民币预期升值驱动下,国际游资大规模流入中国,对我国货币政策的独立性和实施效果产生了较大的冲击和影响。结合Auto-Regressive模型、PLS回归和GM(1,1)模型对2005~2009年的我国国际游资规模进行测算,结果表明,我国的国际游资主要是通过贸易顺差流入我国的,FDI中隐藏的国际游资相对要少很多。测算至2009年底,我国的国际游资规模已经达到了12623.31亿美元。     

Optimal corporate strategy under uncertainty

Within a dynamic setting, optimal corporate strategy management for a multi-division corporation involves restructuring a portfolio of Strategic Business Units (SBUs) periodically so as to maximize the firm's market value. Real option theory has been applied to model and explain managerial flexibility for both project selection and operational decisions. In general, optimal corporate strategy has focused on strategic environments and characteristics of business units rather than on managerial flexibility. In this article, we develop a feasible discrete-time model for optimal corporate strategy that incorporates both endogenous and exogenous factors and is consistent with the value-based criterion for maximizing shareholders’ wealth.     

Structural Features of Female Employment Status and Earnings Mobility: The Experience in Germany

Structural changes in basic economic indicators, changes in traditional role patterns, and in female employment behavior shed light on the performance of the European labor markets in the 90s. This paper focuses on the cyclical sensitivity of women's employment status and earnings position in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) we test the hypothesis that labor market adjustments are not gender-neutral but affect women's employment status and women's relative earnings position to a greater extent than those of men. Cross-sectional as well as longitudinal analysis indicate positive effects on female employment status and earnings position during a period with worsening economic indicators. Logistic regression analysis confirms an increasing likelihood of an upward earnings mobility for women in the 90s. Notwithstanding these positive trends the results show that - due to social norms and attitudes - women are still discriminated against in the labor market and in terms of their relative earnings position. Thus social policy is called upon to improve women's social and employment conditions.     

Building a computable general equilibrium tax model for Italy

In this paper, we develop a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium tax model for Italy allowing for a number of fiscal tools. We illustrate the methodology for modelling and accommodating the full range of direct and indirect taxes into the national general equilibrium model. In particular, we build a commodity tax matrix by commodity, source, user and tax type; and a production tax matrix by industry and tax type. We also put a special emphasis on the institutional sector accounts, incorporating a detailed system of equations. Our model provides a powerful tool for acquiring new insights in fiscal policy analysis, through the assessment of tailored tax reforms, which can consist of either changes in tax rates and tax bases for indirect and direct taxes. Finally, to validate the model we perform an equalizing Value-Added-Tax rates reform. We find that a budget-neutral uniform tax rate reform would be GDP and welfare improving. However, results across agents and sectors vary.     

Parametric external economies and the Cambridge controversy on returns

Abstract

When French economists read The Purchasing Power of Money, they were primarily interested in the equation of exchange and the reformulation that Fisher proposed regarding the quantity theory of money. This reading led them to ponder the meaning that should be given to this theory and to study its empirical significance. Some of them, namely Rueff and Divisia, went further still and considered Fisher's work as a starting point for their own analyses, which were related in particular to the monetary index, the integration of money into general equilibrium theory and the analysis of monetary phenomena in an open economy.     

The Role of Inbound Tourism in the Singaporean Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Assessment

This study has employed recently published input–output (I–O) tables and tourism survey data and built a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, to assess the role of inbound tourism in the Singaporean economy and thus to reveal its implications for tourism marketing. Compared with the I–O analysis, the CGE modeling takes into account the feedback effect in the economy and thus produces more reliable results. The modeling results show that inbound tourism contributes significantly to the Singaporean economy, but it competes mildly with non-tourism sectors for resources. Although tourism shopping accounts for about half of total tourism expenditure, its economic contribution is much less than that of the tourism service in terms of GDP, employment, household income, and tax revenue. This suggests that, in developing and marketing Singapore as a tourist destination, more efforts are needed to encourage tourism services demand.     

Using multiple indicators to evaluate the sustainability of dolphin-based wildlife tourism in rural India

Abstract

Assessing wildlife tourism sustainability in developing countries is crucial, but few studies analyse the sustainability of dolphin-based wildlife tourism in this context. We measure multiple indicators within the human dimensions of wildlife tourism, including tourist visitation numbers, satisfaction, preferences, perceptions, background and specialisation, to ascertain the extent to which the dolphin-watching industry at Chilika Lagoon, in rural India might be considered sustainable. Our methods included participant observation, tourist surveys, and the use of secondary data on visitation over 10 years. We found that the growth rate of tourist visitation over 10 years was beginning to decline. Tourists were mostly inexperienced, and dissatisfied with their dolphin-watching experience. Tourist preferences and perceptions showed useful insights and shortcomings in the way in which the industry was being conducted and managed, and reflected the expectations of non-specialist visitors. Our study highlights drawbacks in the way that wildlife tourism is managed in a rural, developing world context, which draws the sustainability of the dolphin-watching industry in Chilika into question. Future development of an early warning system that addresses combined governance or managerial, social, economic and ecological indicators, and an integrated management plan for conservation and wildlife tourism could contribute to the sustainable management of such industries.     

Perceptions of Job Satisfaction and Job Performance in the Timeshare Industry

ABSTRACT

This study examines timeshare sales representatives' perceptions with respect to demographic and job related factors. Three leading U.S. timeshare companies were solicited to participate in this research. They were asked to distribute surveys to their sales representatives. The data were analyzed through the use of analysis of variance and a post hocmultiple comparison procedure to understand the timeshare sales representative perceptions of job satisfaction and job performance. The results show that there are demographic influences on the perceptions of job satisfaction and job performance.     

新型城镇化效率演化趋势及其驱动机制研究

在分析新型城镇化发展动力机制的基础上,通过构建新型城镇化效率的综合评价指标体系,运用超效率DEA模型和灰色系统理论GM(1,N)模型对1998-2010年河南省新型城镇化效率发展演化趋势及其驱动因素进行研究。结果表明:河南省的新型城镇化效率虽然整体上呈现上升趋势,但2000-2009年处于停滞阶段,2010年才突破发展瓶颈;农业现代化和现代服务业是河南省新型城镇化效率的驱动力量,而传统工业化发展模式和市场化水平低下是河南省新型城镇化效率的制约因素。     

基于供应链金融的中小企业信用风险评价模型研究

在以往供应链金融视角下,中小企业信用风险评价多在孤立时间点上进行,这样会造成指标数据因某些原因而可能发生较大幅度变化,进而导致评价结果的错误,使银行在放贷过程中存在较大风险。本文以A企业为例,构建了基于时间维的供应链金融视角下中小企业信用风险评价模型。根据评价指标特点,该模型在各个时间点上选用微粒群算法和模糊综合评价方法对其进行信用风险评价,将各个时间点上的评价结果进行比较,分析企业的信用等级变化趋势,以期为银行放贷风险的降低提供有效途径。