Of songs and men: a model for multiple choice with herding

We propose a generic model for multiple choice situations in the presence of herding and compare it with recent empirical results from a Web-based music market experiment. The model predicts a phase transition between a weak imitation phase and a strong imitation, ‘fashion’ phase, where choices are driven by peer pressure and the ranking of individual preferences is strongly distorted at the aggregate level. The model can be calibrated to reproduce the main experimental results of Salganik et al. (Science, 311, 854–856 (2006)); we show in particular that the value of the social influence parameter can be estimated from the data. In one of the experimental situation, this value is found to be close to the critical value of the model.     

我国热钱流入的影响因素分析

本文在国际学术界关于国际资本流动影响因素的现有理论基础上,构建了我国热钱流入影响因素的模型,对利率、汇率、通货膨胀率、经济增长等因素对我国热钱流动的影响进行了计量分析,并提出相关政策建议。     

From public ideology to socio-material reproduction of agile principles: The case of pivotal labs

This paper focuses on how regular invocation of a public ideology helps sustain local work practices. Existing research acknowledges that there is a recursive relationship between the local practices and the public ideas, with local practices leading to the adaption of public ideas over time. There is little study of how public ideology sustains local practices over the longer term – seeing translation of the ideology as an ongoing process. Through a case study and web-based analysis of Pivotal Labs, an agile software development company, we contribute to socio-material translation studies demonstrating the manifestation of the public ideology in socio-material practices. We also introduce the concept of a collective cognitive bridge that supports the continued relevance of the public idea as a prop for these socio-material practices.     

中国A股“HOT ISSUE”现象的实证检验

本文用2000年1月到2003年12月IPO的294只A股作为样本，来检验“Hot Issue”现象在中国市场的存在性和市场气氛假说在中国市场的适应性。检验结果表明，IPO各月收益率与IPO各月发行数量之间不存在显著的正相关关系，但IPO市场持续的高收益使我们并不能否认“Hot Issue”市场的存在；市场气氛假说只能部分地解释A股IPO的高收益率。     

Purchase process for capital equipment and services

This article develops some interactive dimensions of the industrial buying center. Buying group processes and outcomes were examined for purchases of capital equipment and industrial services in 31 firms. Qualitative as well as quantitative data were analyzed to test the soundness of an interactive communication perspective on buying, and the managerial implications to be drawn from such an analysis. Equipment and services purchase measures were found to differ reliably across several indices suggested by our theoretical orientation.     

Scaling service delivery in a failed state: cocoa smallholders,Farmer Field Schools,persistent bureaucrats and institutional work in Côte d’Ivoire

The increased use of sustainability standards in the international trade in cocoa challenges companies to find effective modes of service delivery to large numbers of small-scale farmers. A case study of the Sustainable Tree Crops Program targeting the small-scale cocoa producers in Côte d’Ivoire supplying international commodity markets shifts attention from mechanisms of private governance to the embedding of service delivery in the institutional dynamics of the state. It demonstrates that, despite a recent history of violent conflict and civil unrest, the introduced Farmer Field Schools programme achieved a surprising scale in terms of numbers and geographical spread. The analysis of this outcome combines political science and anthropological studies of effective and developmental elements in the state with the interest in institutional work found in organization science. The scaling of a new form of service delivery is explained by the skilful practices of institutional work by managers of a public–private partnership. They have been professionally associated with the sector for a long time and had the capacity to embed new forms of service delivery in persistent pockets of bureaucratic effectiveness in a failed state.     

Do Psychological Fallacies Influence Trading in Financial Markets? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market

Research in both economics and psychology suggests that when agents predict the next value of a random series they frequently exhibit two types of biases, which are called the gambler's fallacy (GF) and the hot hand fallacy (HHF). The GF is to expect a negative correlation in a process that is in fact random. The HHF is more or less the opposite of this—to believe that another heads is more likely after a run of heads. The evidence for these fallacies comes largely from situations where they are not punished (lotteries, casinos, and laboratory experiments with random returns). In many real-world situations, such as in financial markets, succumbing to fallacies is costly, which gives an incentive to overcome them. The present study is based on high-frequency data from a market maker in the foreign exchange market. Trading behavior is only partly explained by the rational exploitation of past patterns in the data. There is also evidence of the GF: a tendency to sell the dollar after it has risen persistently or strongly.     

An Upbeat Crowd: Fast In-store Music Alleviates Negative Effects of High Social Density on Customers’ Spending

Research suggests that in-store crowding can lower customers’ spending, thus limiting overall benefits of high store frequentation. Here, we propose that this negative effect can be mitigated by adjusting store ambiance, specifically by using certain types of in-store music. To test this idea, we conducted a longitudinal field experiment in which we manipulated in-store music tempo and measured social density in six European retail stores. Analyzing over 40,000 individual shopping baskets, we found that social density had an inverted u-shape effect on customer spending. This effect was moderated by in-store music tempo, such that fast music strongly increased spending under high-density conditions. The increase in shopping basket value was driven by customers buying more items rather than buying items that were more expensive. Fast music thus alleviated negative effects of social density. We discuss the theoretical implications of these findings and describe how practitioners can use in-store music to counter negative effects of high customer density.     

Hidden benefits of reward: A field experiment on motivation and monetary incentives

We conducted a field experiment in a controlled work environment to investigate the effect of motivational talk and its interaction with monetary incentives. We find that motivational talk improves performance only when accompanied by performance pay. Moreover, performance pay reduces performance unless it is accompanied by motivational talk. These effects also carry over to the quality of work. Performance pay alone leads to more mistakes. Adding motivational talk makes the difference. In treatments with performance pay, motivational talk increases output by about 20 percent and reduces the ratio of mistakes by more than 40 percent.     

Future airport terminals: New technologies promise capacity gains

The changing dynamics of passenger processes in future airport terminals resulting from pressures from both the demand and supply side are analyzed in this paper. Short and long term (beyond 2020) developments are studied following technology advances and business plans of airlines and airports. Key technologies affecting the central passenger processing functions include identity management and biometrics, Near Field Communications, Big Data analytics and smartphone applications. A simulation model is developed and used to assess the impact of forthcoming changes on the airport's departure hall. Lisbon Portela airport is used as case study. It is shown that passenger process times at the check-in and security checkpoints are significantly reduced, due to the introduction of passenger facilitation processes, under a range of behavioral, technological and policy uncertainties. The most salient implication of these reductions is the quantified capacity gains in the building which question the need for terminal expansion.