企业财务危机中相关利益人行为研究

企业发生财务危机是一个渐进过程 ,措施不及时是管理者、银行及供应商等相关利益人无法避免损失的重要原因。本文以国有企业为样本 ,利用代表相关利益人行为的指标对危机事件的解释作用大小 ,推断相关利益人是否及时采取了合适的行动。研究表明 :相关利益人的行动具有明显的序次关系 ,管理人员由于信息占优 ,在财务危机前三年就采取降薪等行动 ,银行收贷行动于危机前二年 ,而供应商一直到危机前一年才催收欠款。同时 ,仅部分相关利益人能及时发现财务危机征兆 ,并采取合理的措施     

Trajectories for Modernizing Local Governance: Revisiting the Flanders Case

Local government plays a central but altering role in local governance. Together with the shift from a night-watchman state to a welfare state , the models of governance provision changed. Government itself became larger and more scattered throughout the local community. Moreover, government was no longer the only governance provider. Many actors were involved in governance with a diversity of steering relations. In our time, governance continues to change. What are the emerging models of local governance today? After sorting out some terminological and methodological issues, we describe four emerging ideal-type models (i.e. the holding model , the autonomous networks model , the implementation model and the reintegration model ), based on four societal scenarios (i.e. triumphant markets , hundred flowers , creative societies and turbulent neighbourhoods ). The models represent four possible local governance futures. Next, the models are applied on two management issues: organizational structure and financial management. Finally, some embryonic evidence is given on the emergence of the models.     

Data Science: an Action Plan for Expanding the Technical Areas of the Field of Statistics

An action plan to enlarge the technical areas of statistics focuses on the data analyst. The plan sets out six technical areas of work for a university department, and advocates a specific allocation of resources devoted to research in each area and to courses in each area. The value of technical work is judged by the extent to which it benefits the data analyst, either directly or indirectly. The plan is also applicable to government research labs and corporate research organizations.     

开发区科技成果转化的模式研究

科技成果转化是科学技术转化为生产力的重要实践途径,科技成果转化的模式关系到科技成果的推广速度、力度、程度。尤其是开发区作为改革开放的前沿,高科技的相对集中区域,如何高效、快速地将科技成果转化为可实现的生产力,是开发区管理工作中的一个重要研究课题。     

万向集团国际化转型升级中的社会技术创新研究

基于社会技术理论,从商业模式、政策法规和文化整合3个层面研究社会技术创新在万向集团由“嵌入式”向“构建式”转型升级过程中的作用。万向集团在国际化发展过程中形成了以构建全球生产网络模式为代表的商业模式层面上的社会技术创新、以汽车产业促进政策与新能源汽车充电设施发展新规为代表的政策法规层面的社会技术创新和以“合金式”企业文化为代表的文化整合创新。万向集团国际化社会技术创新路径对于我国民营企业走出去具有重要参考价值。     

Estimation of the effective bid-ask spread on high frequency Danish bond data

In this paper the effective bid-ask spread is estimated using 12 high frequency Danish bond samples. A clear-cut MA(1)-model for the mean of the return series, and a GARCH(1,1)-model for the variance, are found. Basically, Roll's model is used, but three different methods of calculating the first-order autocovariance are suggested. Each of these in turn produces three possible ways of estimating the effective bid-ask spread. First, Roll's original autocovariance estimate is used. Second, the autocovariance is calculating using the parameters of an estimated MA(1) model. Third, the autocovariance is obtained from the parameters of a joint MA(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. By means of bootstrapping the standard error of the bid-ask spread estimates are found. It is shown that the gain in efficiency, measured by the relative difference in the standard error of the estimates, is 29% when going from method one to method two, but only 1% when going from method two to method three. These results indicate that the extra gain in efficiency obtained by taking account of the MA(1) structure of the data is noteworthy, but the gain when incorporating the GARCH-effects is negligible.     

神经网络在财务管理中的应用

过去的二十年,神经网络越来越多地应用到财务领域中,主要是基于它所具有大规模并行、自组织、自适应、容错和自学习的能力。本文对神经网络在财务领域中的应用趋势、特征进行了分析,研究表明多数应用采用了含有一个隐含层的BP神经网络,并同时和传统的统计模型进行了比较分析。此外,这些研究还表明神经网络在财务管理领域的应用中取得了较满意的结果。     

An unobserved component model for multi-rate forecasting of telephone call demand: the design of a forecasting support system

An Unobserved Components (UC) Model based on an enhanced version of the Dynamic Harmonic Regression model, including new multi-rate and modulated cycle procedures, is used to develop a customised package for forecasting and signal extraction applied to hourly telephone call numbers made to Barclaycard plc. service centres, with a forecasting horizon of up to several weeks in advance. The paper outlines both the methodological and algorithmic aspects of the modelling, forecasting and signal extraction procedures, including the design and implementation of forecasting support software with a specially designed Graphical User Interface within the ^® computing environment. The forecasting performance is evaluated comprehensively in comparison with the well-known seasonal ARIMA approach.     

西藏农区金融发展状况研究

本文借鉴金融发展理论和SCP范式构建了衡量金融发展的框架,藉此研究西藏农区金融发展。结果表明,中国农业银行西藏分行处于完全垄断地位且主要提供政策性金融服务,商业性金融服务稀缺是西藏农区金融结构的显著特征,由此决定了控制信贷和利率的垄断行为,导致政策和社会效益绩效相对突出而市场效率相对低下。本文建议在提高政策性金融机构在农村的覆盖率和到达率的同时,应促进竞争以提升市场效率,加速完善西藏农区的金融体系。