Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities

This paper proposes a forward-looking model for time-varying capital requirements, which finds application within Basel II. The model rests on the relationship between default rates and the business cycle: by positing two regimes, expansion and recession, and by forecasting the associated probabilities, the default probability for each rating class is defined as the expected value of a default rate whose distribution is a mixture of an expansion and a recession distribution. The application to US data over the forecasting period 1971–2002 provides evidence that the model makes it possible to preserve the risk sensitivity of the capital requirement and at the same time to dampen procyclicality.     

Margins and Price Limits in Taiwan's Stock Index Futures Market

This study extends the framework of Brennan (1986) to find the cost-minimizing combination of spot limits, futures limits, and margins for stock and index futures in the Taiwan market. Our empirical results show that the cost-minimization combination of margins, spot price limits, and futures price limits is 7 percent, 6 percent, and 6 percent, respectively, when the index level is less than 7,000. When the index level ranges from 7,000 to 9,000, the efficient futures contract calls for a combination of 6.5 percent, 5 percent, and 6 percent. The optimal margin, reneging probability, and corresponding contract cost are less than those without price limits. Price limits may partially substitute for margin requirements in ensuring contract performance, with a default risk lower than the 0.3 percent rate that is accepted by the Taiwan Futures Exchange. On the other hand, though imposing equal price limits of 7 percent on both the spot and futures markets does not coincide with the efficient contract design, it does have a lower contract cost and margin requirement (7.75 percent) than that without imposing price limits (8.25 percent).     

信息需求与IT投资的商业价值：组织资本视角的审视

我国企业对信息技术（简称IT）的投资巨大，已成为世界各大IT厂商的主要市场之一，但国内学术界和企业对IT投资对企业绩效的作用机理研究甚少。本文认为，IT投资是为了满足企业的信息需求，而企业的信息需求充分体现在组织资本的信息本质中，因此，IT投资的商业价值在于它促进了组织资本的形成和积累，并通过组织资本对组织的价值创造和价值增长产生有力的促进作用。本文力图帮助企业理解IT投资对企业绩效的作用机理，从而能够采取合理的IT投资策略以最大化IT投资的商业价值。     

基于“工单制”教学在线开放课程建设的探索

随着高等教育“互联网+”思维的不断深植和发展,大规模在线开放课程的建设和推广促进了教育资源的开放性和共享性。目前,高职在线开放课程内容大多以建立完备的知识框架和理论体系为主,存在投入成本高、建设时间长、技能实用性弱、内容更迭慢等缺点,不能良好地对接岗位职能需求。论文探索将“工单制”教学模式应用于高职在线开放课程建设中,以期建设更加适合高职院校学生特点的优质在线开放课程资源。