松嫩流域环境蠕变的若干事实

松嫩流域是中国东北部一块富饶的土地,物产丰饶,气候适宜,自然状况保护相对较好;20世纪后半叶,随着国民经济的高速发展,在一定程度上环境也遭到不同程度的破坏,有些还是很严重的;从环境蠕变的角度分析了松嫩流域环境所发生干旱、黑土退化、天然林减少、草场退化、西部地区沙漠化和荒漠化、湿地干涸缩小、江河污染鱼类减少、城市污染等变化;这些变化与气候变暖有很大的关系,须引起高度重视,尽早采取相应的防御措施。     

Modeling the effects of tourism and land regulation on land-use change in tourist regions: A case study of the Lijiang River Basin in Guilin,China

To a large extent, tourism development triggers an economic boost in certain regions. However, given its complex and dynamic forms of land use, tourism development also causes changes to land-use demands and patterns in tourist regions, which directly and indirectly interfere with local environments. The development of tourist regions must achieve a series of trade-offs to meet sustainability goals. This paper discusses the effects of tourism on land-use change and how land regulation policies integrate tourism development with land use. We employed a system dynamic-cellular automata hybrid model using the Lijiang River Basin as an example to translate tourism-affected land dynamics into spatial distributions and project their likely future changes under various development scenarios. We determined three major outcomes. (1) Tourism development causes a quantitatively increasing demand for construction land. With effective spatial regulations, the expansion of construction land does not necessarily suggest the loss of eco-land; rather, land-use pressures accordingly shift to cropland. Under these circumstances, land regulation policies help to balance land demand and optimize land-use patterns. (2) Tourism development causes a continuous spatial interference with landscapes. Land regulation policies have the positive and active effect of ignoring this interference rather than counteracting it. (3) The strict implementation of land regulation policies does not necessarily improve land-use patterns. Flexible policies achieve a better balanced land-use pattern than a combination of individual strict policies. However, the former cannot reduce as much vulnerability as the latter. Hence, policy assembly represents a trade-off with regards to balancing land demands, and it should vary based on regional land-use patterns and targets.     

Profitability of Nonlinear Dynamics Under Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from Pacific Basin Stock Markets

This paper explores a possible link between an asymmetric dynamic process of stock returns and profitable technical trading rules. Using Pacific Basin stock market indexes, we show that the dynamic process of daily index returns is better characterized by nonlinearity arising from an asymmetric reverting property, and that the asymmetric reverting property of stock returns is exploitable in generating profitable buy and sell signals for technical trading rules. We show that the positive (negative) returns from buy (sell) signals are a consequence of trading rules that exploit the asymmetric dynamics of stock returns that revolve around positive (negative) unconditional mean returns under prior positive (negative) return patterns. Our results corroborate the arguments for the usefulness of technical analysis.     

鄂尔多斯市煤田火区科学规范治理的探索与实践

通过对内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市煤(井)田火区的成功治理和深入探索,研究归纳出了火区治理的技术措施及工作经验,为类似资源型地区和煤炭企业治理自然发火危害提供了借鉴。     

Declining inflows and more frequent droughts in the Murray–Darling Basin: climate change,impacts and adaptation*

It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to the Murray–Darling Basin. In this study, we analyse the effects of climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin using a simulation model that incorporates a state‐contingent representation of uncertainty. The severity of the impact depends, in large measure, on the extent to which climate change is manifested as an increase in the frequency of drought conditions. Adaptation will partially offset the adverse impact of climate change.     

基于生态系统服务的闽江流域生态补偿阈值研究

研究目的：流域是自然地理和经济发展的复合型区域,科学划分补偿载体与合理补偿阈值可为流域生态补偿与生态保护修复提供科学依据。研究方法：InVEST 模型,市场价值法,影子工程法,生态补偿优先级与补偿阈值测算模型。研究结果：（1）2000—2015年闽江流域拥有较高的生态系统服务,总体上生态系统服务上游＞中游＞下游,且自生态补偿实施以来总体呈增长趋势,水源供给服务最为明显;（2）2015年生态系统服务价值为2 788.27亿元,其中水源供给服务价值占比达61.91%,水质净化服务价值仅占0.16%,按生境质量调整后生态系统服务价值为2 827.05亿元;（3）根据生态与社会经济状况确定浦城县、武夷山市、光泽县、松溪县、建阳市、顺昌县、建瓯市、政和县、连城县、宁化县、清流县、建宁县、明溪县、泰宁县、将乐县为受偿区,其他区域为补偿支付区;（4）依据区域生态系统服务价值与损失的机会成本,确定受偿区2015年补偿阈值介于8.48亿～105.56亿元之间。研究结论：闽江流域作为中国东南沿海的重点生态功能区,上游对生态补偿迫切程度整体较下游区域更强烈,探索有差异且合理的生态补偿阈值有助于实现区域经济—社会—生态协同发展。     

淮河流域水环境治理对策

淮河流域水环境污染面临挑战,2018年淮河流域废污水排放量达到64.61亿t,比2010年增长25.9%,2019年Ⅳ、Ⅴ和劣Ⅴ类水质仍占36.4%,这就需要推动流域水环境综合治理,促进流域绿色发展。针对淮河流域水环境治理存在的管理体制尚未理顺、执法不到位、管制手段单调、省际跨界水污染治理措施不力、治理主体投入不足等主要问题,提出淮河流域水环境治理的相应对策建议,包括完善流域水环境治理规划体系、加大水功能区水质保护力度、优化产业结构和空间布局、推进流域上下游和省际间协调联治、加强流域水环境监测预警、建立流域水环境治理投融资机制等。     

基于熵权法的跨省水生态补偿标准测算与资金分配 ———以东江流域为例

生态补偿标准测算与资金分配是建立跨省水生态补偿机制的难点和关键问题,需要结合试点以来的实际保护投入和保护效果,根据补偿性质的不同,分别计算直接成本补偿量和机会损失补偿量,再将直接成本补偿量分配到水源区各区县。建立基于跨省断面水量水质和投入效益的补偿量计算模型与资金分配的熵权模型,以东江流域跨省生态补偿试点为例,计算得到江西省东江源区水生态保护年补偿量31.86亿元,其中直接成本补偿量11.06亿元,并按37.2%、32.2%、30.6%的比例分配给源区寻乌、安远、定南三县。此结果高于《东江流域上下游横向生态补偿的协议》的补偿金额,可为我国实施跨省水生态补偿中优化补偿标准和资金使用,实施差别化补偿方式提供支撑。     

柴达木盆地经济可持续发展综合评价

通过对柴达木盆地8个县市实际情况的调查,从经济、社会以及资源环境方面选用37个具体指 标,建立经济可持续发展评价指标体系,采用主成分分析方法对柴达木盆地经济可持续发展作出综合评 价。评价结果显示, 1999～2012年柴达木盆地经济可持续发展水平总体呈上升趋势,综合得分从1999年的 -15.348 0提高到2012年的28.732 9。特别是2005年国家级柴达木循环经济试验区批准建设之后,地区 的可持续发展综合水平得分增长幅度较大,说明柴达木盆地循环经济的发展对可持续发展水平的提升有显 著支持作用。通过分析指出影响柴达木盆地经济可持续发展的四个主因子,分别是地区经济总量规模因 子、产业结构因子、人口素质范畴、社会基础设施发展因子。并通过主因子的变动情况,指出影响该地区 经济可持续发展的主要问题有:柴达木盆地公共基础设施不完善,制约经济的可持续发展;资源禀赋不均, 限制经济发展的持续性;人力资源实力较弱,科教投入不足,影响其工业转型;产业结构不合理。最后, 提出促进柴达木盆地经济可持续发展的对策建议。     

我国民间借贷及其监管对策研究——以鄂尔多斯地区为例

鄂尔多斯地区民间借贷在近年来发展速度与规模非常快,对地区经济成长与发展起到积极推动作用的同时,其带来的一系列问题也成为人们关注的热点.游离于监管体制外的大量民间资金的存在也严重影响了国家宏观调控政策实施的效果,对地区社会经济稳定和金融安全带来巨大隐患,在分析鄂尔多斯民间借贷特点和形成原因的基础上,针对性提出了推动鄂尔多斯金融稳定健康发展的对策与措施.