投资者面临泡沫的理性行为:抛售、旁观还是骑乘?

关于投资者面临泡沫时的行为,学术界存在截然不同的三种观点:抛售、旁观和骑乘。本文构建了一个仅需基本信息的、适用于一般投资者的泡沫识别模型,以1996年5月至2010年12月的数据为样本识别泡沫,在此基础上分析泡沫期之后的崩溃风险,并测算投资于泡沫期之后的超额收益,探寻当期识别到泡沫与下一期标准化的超额收益之间的关系。结果表明,崩溃与泡沫没有必然联系,投资者面临具有极端收益的泡沫时的理性行为是骑乘泡沫。     

中国生态环境保护:立足国情引导公众理性消费

要探索一条有中国特色的社会主义环保之路,"超越凯恩斯主义"和西方现代化发展模式,除了在生产领域节能环保外,要立足中国人口众多的国情,从社会生活的微观层面倡导公众的节约意识,减少和克服公众消费的浪费现象和盲目高消费甚至挥霍性消费,政府要通过制度安排和公共政策引导公众理性消费,发展公共文化事业,培养公众丰富的精神追求和简约的生活方式,培植有利于生态环境保护的社会生活基础。企业和商家要在引领公众节约行为和理性消费中寻找商机做环保产业,承担相关社会责任。     

新奢侈品的细分市场及消费者行为研究

本文在文献研究、理论分析的基础上,将新奢侈品定义为外形识别度高、具有适度品牌溢价的优质消费品,并总结了新奢侈品的特点及发展趋势;识别了目标消费者群体所在的心理学、人文的细分市场,以及分析了新奢侈品的需求曲线;在上海地区调研的基础上,总结了消费新奢侈品的产品偏好、品牌偏好。     

人力资本理性配置的制度因素分析

本文通过建立人力资本理性配置与经济增长间的关系模型,得出结论:低人力资本者和高人力资本者都可能成为价值侵蚀者.只有个体将知识和人力次本更多地配置到价值创造的生产性领域时,才能在降低增长成本而实现个人财富"理性增长"基础上实现整个社会经济的"和谐增长".本文的政策含义是:粗放型经济增长的根源在于"掠夺性激励制度"激发了人的"掠夺性侵蚀行为",如何纠正激励性制度偏差,降低价值侵蚀行为效率是实现成本节约基础上长期经济增长的关键.     

我国房地产市场的调整及“救市”建议

2008年中国房地产业在经历了"高投资、高房价、高利润和高税收"之后,开始步入调整期.此次调整既有诸多不可控的外部因素,也有行业自身的原因.认真分析房地产市场周期调整的成因,因地制宜出台审慎、灵活、富有弹性的调控政策,并借市场调整之机优化结构、强化相关制度建设,是中国应对美国金融危机引发全球经济衰退的理性选择.也是中国房地产市场走向成熟及持续健康发展的关键.     

The challenge of akrasia for the theory of rational choice

The phenomenon of akrasia, in which an actor makes a choice she regrets even while choosing it, appears problematic for theories of rational choice, which assume that an agent prefers any chosen course of action. The apparent possibility of akratic action presents a challenge to rational choice theorists, either to demonstrate that it is illusory or to show that akratic action does not violate the axioms of rational choice. The problematic status of akrasia is exhibited most sharply when set against the backdrop of praxeology. Therefore, this paper will explore whether the idea of akratic action can be reconciled with the fundamental principles of praxeology.

Market evidence of misperceived mortality risk

We construct and implement a test of rational consumer behavior in a high-stakes financial market. In particular, we test whether consumers make systematic mistakes in perceiving their mortality risks. We implement this test using data from secondary life insurance markets where consumers with a life-threatening illness sell their life insurance policies to firms in return for an up-front payment. We compare predictions from two models: one with consumers who correctly perceive their mortality risk, and one with consumers who are misguided about their life expectancy, and find that our data are most consistent with the predictions made by the second model.     

Solving RE models with discontinuous policy rules – an application to minimum wage setting in Germany

The legal regulations require the minimum wage in Germany to be adjusted biennially which gives rise to a policy discontinuity. From the perspective of rational expectations models, such policy features render standard local approximation techniques infeasible. The article presents a stylized model in which negotiated wages and corporate profits are the outcome of an optimization problem, while changes to the minimum wage are modelled by a discontinuous policy rule. Using the simple example of minimum wage setting in Germany, the article illustrates how such models can be solved using the method of undetermined coefficients and presents selected simulation results.     

话语形态视角下马克思主义中国化的理性跃迁

马克思主义中国化不仅是马克思主义的重大理论升华,同时也是话语形态体系的演进变迁。在马克思主义中国化的历史进程中,因历史使命的转换与时空条件的变迁而构成不同的话语形态。马克思主义在实践中被不同的话语形态不断解读和诠释,呈扬出民族化、具体化、系统化和大众化的理论品质,由此引发了马克思主义中国化的四次理性跃迁。     

Asymmetric information in a competitive market game: Reexamining the implications of rational expectations

Summary. We examine price formation in a simple static model with asymmetric information, an infinite number of risk neutral traders and no noise traders. Here we re-examine four results associated with rational expectations models relating to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium prices, the advantage of becoming informed, the costly acquisition of information, and the impossibility of having equilibrium prices with higher volatility than the underlying fundamentals. Received: August 27, 1997; revised version: February 11, 1998