基于灰色关联的我国金融风险评价体系研究

文章结合我国经济运行的实际情况,构建了一个完整的金融风险评价体系,并对2008年危机前后我国金融风险状况进行实证检验。结果表明,危机前我国金融体系综合评价偏离最优参考数列严重,而2010年关联程度最大。依据检验结果提出了抑制通胀、积极协调人民币升值幅度等政策性建议。     

On the individual optimality of economic integration

Which countries find it optimal to form an economic union? We emphasize the risk-sharing benefits of economic integration. Consider an endowment world economy model, where international financial markets are incomplete and contracts not enforceable. A union solves both frictions among member countries. We uncover conditions on initial incomes and net foreign assets of potential union members such that forming a union is welfare-improving over standing alone in the world economy. Consistently with evidence on economic integration, unions in our model occur (i) relatively infrequently, and (ii) emerge more likely among homogeneous countries, and (iii) rich countries.     

风险社会下大学生就业陷阱的治理路径探析

就业,是民生之本。在当前以市场为导向的就业体制中,严峻的就业形势和大学生就业预期的不确定性,使得"大学生就业陷阱"的风险几乎是随处可见。因此必须构建一个"政府、高校、学生"三方合力的治理路径:政府要完善审核监管制度、高校要加强就业安全教育引导、大学生要增强陷阱自我防范意识。     

家用电器与电子产品质量风险分析

家用电器与电子产品已成为现代生活必需品,其产品质量问题不容忽视。本文首先阐述了该领域的行业现状,指出行业内存在的普遍问题。进而对产品质量存在的主要风险、风险形成原因进行详细分析,并对质量风险级别进行研判。最后提出提高产品质量,降低产品风险的应对方法。本文可为相关检验检测人员、生产厂家、消费者提供参考。     

The relationship with REITs and bank loans: Capital structure perspectives

This paper discusses a research strategy which determines the optimum capital structure strategy and sets a reasonable required return of two-dimensional mortgages for borrowers and lenders with trade-off theory. We derived the optimum capital structure strategy of REITs and assess the mortgage risk premiums for lender. The results indicate that the REITs should maximize the value themselves by adjusting the optimum loan-to-value, make the most efficient use of the money. The lenders should seek borrowers who can pay mortgage interest continuously. At the same time, by maximizing mortgage premiums, they can set strategic objectives.     

Improving the relevance of risk factor disclosure in corporate annual reports

This research develops a model for assessing the quality of risk disclosures and applies the proposed model to four companies in the food production and processing sector. We contribute to the literature by extending prior work on risk disclosure quality using a longitudinal approach to assess the quality of risk reporting. While previous studies have described disclosure practices, this paper adopts a normative approach to disclosure. By suggesting a way of improving risk reporting disclosures, the paper provides guidance for current and future company managers. In line with previous research, this paper identifies certain problems with existing risk disclosures. Results suggest that company managers prefer providing disclosures that are symbolic rather than substantive. We argue that institutional factors and proprietary costs contribute towards and can explain this behaviour. In suggesting a way forward we highlight the role that stakeholders including managers, users, regulators and auditors can play in improving the quality of risk reporting. Flexibility in reporting could be maintained by adopting a properly monitored ‘comply or explain’ approach.     

贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。     

金融同业活动与实体企业经营风险——来自地区层面同业存单业务的证据

本文研究了地区层面金融同业活动对实体企业经营风险的影响。基于各省份金融机构开启同业存单业务的研究表明,地区层面金融同业活动显著提升了当地上市企业股价大幅下跌的风险。进一步研究表明,随着同业存单业务的发展,当地上市企业债务融资成本和风险水平有所上升,而业绩表现和市场价值有所下降。上述发现表明,企业融资链条变长后,信贷市场道德风险上升,部分企业因风险偏好增强导致经营风险上升,更容易突然出现负面事件而导致股价大幅下跌。本文的发现揭示了金融同业活动存在监管规避的可能性及其影响实体企业的潜在路径,凸显了完善金融监管以更好服务实体经济发展的重要现实意义。     

“逆周期因子”提高了人民币汇率中间价的市场基准地位吗？——基于时变溢出指数的实证研究

为了对冲外汇市场情绪的顺周期波动,缓解市场中的羊群效应,中国人民银行于2017年5月26日在人民币汇率中间价报价中引入"逆周期因子"。本文基于TVP-VAR模型,构造了时变的溢出指数,通过量化分析方法考察了"逆周期因子"对人民币汇率中间价基准地位的影响。研究发现,第一,"逆周期因子"的引入导致人民币中间价对其他汇率的溢出效应降低,中间价的基准地位被削弱。第二,从整个人民币汇率体系来看,"逆周期因子"的引入提高了汇率体系的总体溢出水平,系统的联动效应增强。第三,"逆周期因子"的引入对短期汇率体系的影响大于对长期汇率体系的影响。基于此,本文提出了应进一步完善"逆周期因子"的构成,实现逆周期与保持中间价基准地位并存等政策建议。     

央地金融监管协作:经验、回顾与展望

我国金融业体量庞大且关联复杂,金融治理愈发需要发挥中央和地方的协作,形成合力。近年来,各地均在探索建立中央金融管理部门分支机构与地方政府的监管协调机制,但仍缺乏系统、明确的顶层设计,且面临中央指导不够、基层力量不足、法律规定不明等挑战。本文对国内外的央地金融监管协调机制作了梳理,按互动程度深浅将国际上金融监管协作机制分为无需互动、有限互动和深度互动三种模式,并按时间和特点将国内央地监管协作机制建设分为四个阶段。在此基础上,通过分析现有机制中存在的困难和挑战,本文提出了构建双层监管协作框架、完善金融委地方协调机制、完善法律配套体系等系列建议。