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21.
管理学界惯用的“思辨方法”之界定,与哲学界对该范畴的界定相左。以概念、范畴为基本工具,合逻辑地对某领域的根本问题进行系统化的理性演绎,乃是思辨方法的基本功能与特征。无论如何,不能将其在思维方式层面归结为“形象思维”。建议管理学界采用“人文方法”取代目前惯用的“思辨方法”的所指和能指。 相似文献
22.
Emmanuel Apergis 《Applied economics letters》2017,24(1):45-48
This study explores the effect of the Paris terrorist attacks on the stock returns and the volatility for the most important companies in the global defence industry. To this end, it employs the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity methodology. The findings clearly indicate that this terrorist event has a positive impact on both the returns and the volatility of these stocks. 相似文献
23.
Ismael Arciniegas Rueda 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》2012,19(2):102-127
The effects of a currency crisis on a country's economy depend on nonlinear relations among several variables that characterize the economic, financial, legal and socio‐political structure of the country at the onset of the crisis. Those effects can be associated with contractions or expansions in output. Historically, contractionary speculative attacks are more frequent. This paper uses a parametric censored heteroscedastic TOBIT model to empirically analyse how different economic and financial variables determine the real effects of a contractionary speculative attack. Variables describing the banking sector, the international trade, the severity of the crisis and foreign interest rates are found to be significant in explaining the size of currency crises' contractionary real effects. The TOBIT's results are compared with alternative modelling strategies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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25.
Christoph Markmann Inga-Lena Darkow Heiko von der Gracht 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2013
Identifying and assessing the potential impact and likelihood of future events, which might evolve into risks, are a prerequisite to identify future security challenges. In particular, risks associated with global supply chains are special since they involve a multitude of international stakeholders with different perspectives on security needs and measures. Therefore, it is essential to determine which techniques and instruments are best suited for risk assessment in complex and multi-organizational environments. The Delphi expert survey technique has proven to be a valuable instrument for long-term decision making support as well as foresight, and has a potential value for risk assessment. We contribute to this research strand and conduct a Delphi-based risk analysis. Our research concentrates on man-made risks in global supply chains which are particularly uncertain in terms of type, location, and affected supply chain partners and can therefore be classified as inherently “wicked” issues, i.e. issues that are multidimensional with often unpleasant outcomes. We illustrate that Delphi research makes a fivefold contribution to risk analysis by: (1) identifying and quantifying risks; (2) analyzing stakeholder perceptions and worldviews; (3) stimulating a global communication process; (4) identifying weak signals, outlier opinions, and wildcards; (5) and facilitating risk scenario development. 相似文献
26.
We conduct a pseudo real-time analysis of the existence and extent of speculative bubbles in 11+ US sectors over the period January 1973–May 2015. Based on computed bubble signals, a trading strategy is constructed which switches funds between the market index and those industry sectors that exhibit bubble dynamics. Our strategy generates the highest after-transaction-cost return and Sharpe ratio, and first-order stochastically dominates a range of alternative strategies we consider, including the buy-and-hold investment in the market index. Subsample analysis and specification checks confirm the robustness of our findings. 相似文献
27.
财政支出、土地财政与房地产投机泡沫——基于省际面板数据的测算与实证 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文在对全国30个省份房地产市场投机泡沫进行测算的基础上,采用系统GMM方法分析了财政因素对房地产投机泡沫的影响。研究发现,在房地产市场上,我国绝大多数省份都从2003年起开始出现明显的投机泡沫,且各地的泡沫均从2005年开始出现剧增的情形。随后,以财政支出和土地财政为重点的对影响房地产投机泡沫变化的财政因素进行的实证研究表明,土地财政已成为当前我国房地产投机泡沫积累起来的重要原因。 相似文献
28.
郭清马 《广西经济管理干部学院学报》2007,19(2):46-49
伴随着经济全球化和金融自由化的发展,外汇市场上的游戏规则产生了显而易见的变化,投机资本规模迅速膨胀,羊群效应也愈发严重,对一国汇率的稳定形成严重挑战。文章从博弈论的角度出发,构造不完全信息下投机资本攻击一国汇率的博弈模型,揭示投机者进行投机攻击决策的依据和博弈中货币当局败北的原因,创造性地提出“抗投机攻击指数”概念,用以判断一国外汇市场的稳定。 相似文献
29.
Paul Ehling Michael Gallmeyer Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen Philipp Illeditsch 《Journal of Financial Economics》2018,127(3):459-484
We show that inflation disagreement, not just expected inflation, has an impact on nominal interest rates. In contrast to expected inflation, which mainly affects the wedge between real and nominal yields, inflation disagreement affects nominal yields predominantly through its impact on the real side of the economy. We show theoretically and empirically that inflation disagreement raises real and nominal yields and their volatilities. Inflation disagreement is positively related to consumers’ cross-sectional consumption growth volatility and trading in fixed income securities. Calibrating our model to disagreement, inflation, and yields reproduces the economically significant impact of inflation disagreement on yield curves. 相似文献
30.
Models with multiple equilibria are a popular way to explain currency attacks. Morris and Shin (1998) have shown that, in the context of those models, unique equilibria may prevail once noisy private information is introduced. In this paper, we apply the method of Morris and Shin to a broader class of probability distributions and show—using the technique of iterated elimination of dominated strategies—that their results continue to hold, even if we allow for sunspots and individual uncertainty about strategic behavior of other agents. We provide a clear exposition of the logic of this model and we analyze the impact of transparency on the probability of a speculative attack. For the case of uniform distribution of noisy signals, we show that increased transparency of government policy reduces the likelihood of attacks. 相似文献