Model uncertainty,economic development,and welfare costs of business cycles

Some researchers argue that the welfare gains from eliminating consumption fluctuations for the United States are not small once model uncertainty is taken into account. This paper presents new evidence on the welfare gains from eliminating model uncertainty using a data set from a broad range of countries. It quantifies exactly the effect of model uncertainty on the welfare gains using an analytical formula. The results indicate that most countries derive much larger gains from the reduction of model uncertainty compared with the United States. Countries at higher stages of economic development tend to have lower welfare gains because their gains from eliminating model uncertainty become smaller. This relationship does not depend on country size or trade openness.     

Are all types of real transaction management equal in the eyes of bank lenders?

This study examines whether bank lenders react differently to various types of real transaction management (RTM) by borrowing firms. Drawing upon the differential cash and cash flow effects of alternative forms of RTM, we predict and find that banks provide more favorable loan terms, that is, lower interest spread and reduced likelihood of required collateral, for firms reporting more discretionary reductions in research and development (R&D) expenditures. In contrast, lending banks respond unfavorably to borrowers’ engagement in RTM through aggressive sales discounts and overproduction of inventories. Additional analysis reveals that the favorable effect of discretionary R&D reductions on loan pricing is greater (smaller) for borrowing firms with a prior relationship with the bank or with a lower level of cash holdings (loans with longer maturity). Overall, our findings suggest that banks, with their unique payoff functions and monitoring incentives, do not view all forms of RTM negatively.     

Does information asymmetry predict audit fees?

This study investigates whether and how information asymmetry in the stock market affects the quantum of audit fees paid by auditees. It is based on a sample of 218 US publicly traded companies and adopts two well-established proxies for information asymmetry, namely bid-ask spread (BAS) and probability of informed trading (PIN). Empirical results provide evidence that, after controlling for all main audit fees determinants, information asymmetry is positively related to the quantum of audit fees paid. Overall, evidence supports the contention that less transparent companies convey higher audit risk, and therefore auditors require higher compensation.     

An explosion time characterization of asset price bubbles

In a standard continuous time asset pricing model, this paper provides an explosion time characterization of asset price bubbles that extends the existing characterization theorems in the literature from diffusion processes to general semimartingales (which can include jumps). This characterization has a nice economic interpretation, not emphasized in the existing literature.