布雷顿森林体系Ⅱ：博弈均衡与中国的困境

如果把人民币汇率问题纳入“新布雷顿森林体系”的分析框架,通过分析“新布雷顿森林体系”的运行机制和其中的各方博弈,所能够得出的短期均衡结果是,美国继续进口亚洲商品,亚洲国家对美融资以保持美国国内旺盛的消费需求。但从长期来看,新布雷顿森林体系由于自身存在的制度性缺陷,最终会导致亚洲国家组建的对美融资“卡特尔”走向分裂。中国在这个卡塔尔与其破裂的预期中,面临三重困境需要突破。     

"三农"问题的财政对策思考--治标更要治本

"三农"问题是我国转型时期社会、经济、人口、资源、环境等诸多问题的汇聚点,是关系我国改革、发展和稳定大局的重大问题.解决"三农"问题不能满足于一时的效果,而是要考察其更深层次的原因,达到治标与治本相结合.为此,本文提出发展城市经济以吸纳农村劳动力;加大农村教育投入,进行农村人力资源开发;以及进行农村制度创新,彻底改善农业和农村发展的外部条件等财政经济对策以求得"三农"问题的最彻底解决.     

信用制度变迁下的票据市场功能演进与中小企业融资模式选择

商业信用是信用制度的基础,票据则是在商业信用基础上所产生的最有代表性的信用工具。随着信用制度的发展变迁,票据发展出汇兑、支付、结算、融资等功能。在发达市场经济条件下,票据的核心功能最终演化为融资。中国票据市场服务于中国经济市场化转型的需要,在解决中小企业融资方面发挥了重要作用,但票据市场制度体系也需要与时俱进进行修复调整。票交所作为票据市场重要的制度创新,推动票据市场从区域分割、信息不透明、以纸质票据和线下操作为主的传统市场向全国统一、安全高效、电子化的现代市场转型。在我国经济从高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,需要进一步加强票据市场基础设施建设和制度建设,深化票据市场为实体经济服务的功能,尤其是发挥好为中小企业融资的作用。     

Analyzing the effect of derivatives on the financial soundness of commercial banks in Italy: An approach based on the CAMELS framework

Italian economy is among the biggest economies in the Europe which suffered from the repercussions of the global financial crisis during this last decade. The weakness of Italian banking system coincides with the common debate about the implication of derivatives in the distress of banks’ soundness. Thus, the aim of our research is to examine the effect of derivative instruments on the banks’ soundness in Italy. To reach our goal, the CAMELS approach is employed to define the soundness of Italian commercial banks. To overcome the endogeneity issue of variables, an appropriate econometric procedure, namely the dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM system) is applied using data from 22 commercial banks in Italy over the period 2005–2015. Explanatory variables are defined by derivative instruments (forwards, swaps, options, and futures), bank‐specific variable (bank's size as non‐CAMELS variable), industry‐specific variables (CR3, CR5, and HHI as indicators of bank's sector and market concentrations), and country‐specific variables (GDP and inflation). The main results reveal that the majority of the CAMELS indicators are favorably affected by derivative instruments especially forwards and options. The most important conclusion is that using derivative instruments does not threaten the financial soundness of commercial banks in Italy. As major implication decision‐makers and experts—after the global financial crisis—should not consider derivatives in part as responsible of the fragility of the Italian banking system.     

Measuring the liquidity part of volume

Based on the concept that the presence of liquidity frictions can increase the daily traded volume, we develop an extended version of the mixture of distribution hypothesis model (MDH) along the lines of Tauchen and Pitts (1983) to measure the liquidity portion of volume. Our approach relies on a structural definition of liquidity frictions arising from the theoretical framework of Grossman and Miller (1988), which explains how liquidity shocks affect the way in which information is incorporated into daily trading characteristics. In addition, we propose an econometric setup exploiting the volatility–volume relationship to filter the liquidity portion of volume and infer the presence of liquidity frictions using daily data. Finally, based on FTSE 100 stocks, we show that the extended MDH model proposed here outperforms that of Andersen (1996) and that the liquidity frictions are priced in the cross-section of stock returns.     

Credit risk,managerial behaviour and macroeconomic equilibrium within dual banking systems: Interest-free vs. interest-based banking industries

In this paper, an attempt has been made to explore the determinants of credit risk in the banking system with a particular interest toward the Islamic banking industry. We analyze the link between credit risk and a set of bank-specific and macroeconomic along with institutional variables using two complementary approaches. First, we investigate the factors of credit risk using one-step generalized method of moments (GMM) system estimator. Then, we explore the feedback between credit risk and its determinants in a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model. We have used a sample of Middle Eastern, North African (MENA) and Asian countries to apply our model. The major purpose of this paper is to find factors that could explain credit risk within the interest-free banking system relative to the interest-based one.     

信息化对制造业升级的影响机制研究

信息化对制造业升级的影响日益深远，但其影响机制也更加复杂。通过微观、宏观双视角定性论述，借助GMM模型对中国283个城市2004-2014年的面板数据进行定量测度，探讨了信息化对制造业升级的影响机制。结果显示：信息化与制造业升级存在倒U型关系，当信息化程度未跨过风险拐点时，其对制造业升级会产生促进作用；信息化程度跨过风险拐点后，信息化对制造业升级的促进作用呈下降趋势。研究表明信息化并不总是促进制造业升级，信息化是机遇也是挑战，各地区需要因地制宜，结合自身工业化水平来发展信息化。     

Purchasing natural personal care products in the era of fake news? The moderation effect of brand trust

Natural personal care products are gaining popularity due to their benefits in terms of health and well-being. However, consumers are wary of these products and are guided by the fake news circulating about them. Since natural product consumption offers several personal and environmental benefits, it would be worthwhile to understand consumers’ tendency to let fake news influence their consumption decisions. Accordingly, the current study examined the association of fake news and purchasing behaviour towards natural personal care products, utilising Stimulus-Organism-Behaviour-Consequence (SOBC) as the theoretical framework. The study proposed openness to change as the stimulus, perceived benefits and perceived risks as organismic internal states, purchase intentions as the behaviour, and the propensity of believing and acting on fake news as the consequence, which is further associated with system trust. The model was tested by analysing data collected from 390 existing consumers, considering the moderation effect of brand trust and controlling the effect of age and gender. The findings confirmed that openness to change is associated with perceived benefits and risks. Furthermore, perceived benefits and system trust are associated with purchase intentions, which are, in turn, associated with the propensity of believing and acting on fake news. The study presents several novel contributions to theory and practice.     

金融衍生产品对上市公司风险管理影响实证研究

论文选取有色金属矿产行业以及能源交通运输行业229家上市公司作为样本，以上市公司是否使用衍生产品为解释变量，同时引用一系列控制变量，通过实证分析上市公司使用衍生产品是否会有效降低公司风险。实证过程涉及参数检验、非参数检验、相关性分析和回归分析，实证结果显示我国上市公司使用衍生产品会降低公司风险，这与西方主流的财务管理理论相一致而与我国学者以前的研究相反，由此推测我国上市公司运用衍生产品的能力逐渐娴熟。     

基于组织协同系统的创客组织发展稳定性实证分析

创客组织是实现组织协同创新的重要载体。创客位于组织协同系统的核心层，创客入驻创客组织的创新状态决定了协同创新发展状态；创客组织位于组织协同系统的中间层，起组织协调作用，其发展稳定性影响着整个系统；协同组织位于外部层，其参与程度决定了整个系统的组织协同和协同创新吸引能力。基于波动系数计量模型，对240家创客组织的12项评价指标进行分析，结果显示，以高校主导的创客组织衡量指标波动系数为标准，创客组织在整体上处于发展不稳定状态；分类别分析结果表明，高校和科研院所主导的创客组织发展稳定性明显优于企业和个人主导的创客组织。研究结果可以为完善创新政策、促进创客组织稳健发展提供参考。