Connectedness and systemic risk spillovers analysis of Chinese sectors based on tail risk network

This paper investigates the systemic risk spillovers and connectedness in the sectoral tail risk network of Chinese stock market, and explores the transmission mechanism of systemic risk spillovers by block models. Based on conditional value at risk (CoVaR) and single index model (SIM) quantile regression technique, we analyse the tail risk connectedness and find that during market crashes, stock market exposes to more systemic risk and more connectedness. Further, the orthogonal pulse function shows that Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of edges has a significant positive effect on systemic risk, but the impact shows a certain lagging feature. Besides, the directional connectedness of sectors shows that systemic risk receivers and transmitters vary across time, and we adopt PageRank index to identify systemically important sector released by utilities and financial sectors. Finally, by block model we find that the tail risk network of Chinese sectors can be divided into four different spillover function blocks. The role of blocks and the spatial spillover transmission path between risk blocks are time-varying. Our results provide useful and positive implications for market participants and policy makers dealing with investment diversification and tracing the paths of risk shock transmission.     

Does the severity of a client’s negative environmental,social and governance reputation affect audit effort and audit quality?

In recent years, investors have begun to value companies’ reputations through their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices. ESG risk can affect business processes and controls and can heighten financial risk and threaten a firm’s survival. This study examines whether and how the severity of media coverage of a firm’s negative ESG issues (tainted ESG reputation) is associated with audit effort and audit quality. I find that auditors manage the higher expected engagement risk conveyed by tainted ESG reputation by applying higher audit effort. Next, I observe that the increased effort is associated with auditors likely detecting and requiring adjustments for material misstatements and that tainted ESG reputation is associated with fewer misstatements (i.e., reduces poor audit quality). The association between tainted ESG reputation and audit quality is driven primarily by increased audit report lag, not by increased audit fees. Further, I find that tainted ESG reputation is positively associated with audit effort and reduces poor audit quality for up to three years. The results also show that the audit effort and audit quality effect vary across the three components of ESG.     

An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey

This article presents an analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk. To that end, we analyze and classify 266 articles that were published no later than September 2016 in the databases Scopus and Web of Knowledge; these articles were identified using the keywords “systemic risk”, “financial stability”, “financial”, “measure”, “indicator”, and “index”. They were evaluated based on 10 categories, namely, type of study, type of approach, object of study, method, spatial scope, temporal scope, context, focus, type of data used, and results. The analysis and classification of this literature made it possible to identify the remaining gaps in the literature on systemic risk; this contributes to a future research agenda on the topic. Moreover, the most influential articles in this field of research and the articles that compose the mainstream research on systemic financial risk were identified.     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change Regulations on the Business Community: A System Dynamic Approach

Based on the business environmental literature and system dynamics, this paper develops a simulation model for managing the business risks derived from climate change. In particular, the purpose of this paper is to transform the valuable findings from the literature regarding climate change and corporate implications into an effective business management model with a broad applicability, regardless of the size of the business or the sector in which it operates. A methodology consistent with the basic principles of the system dynamic modeling process is developed, and a case study is designed to determine the level of completeness of the simulation model and its ability to address different aspects of business performance. To do so, three different scenarios have been simulated to analyze the reactive, proactive and inactive stance of managers against climate change risks. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

商业银行偿付能力风险、流动性风险与银行体系风险

宏观审慎监管需要微观基础.研究商业银行偿付能力风险与流动性风险和银行体系风险的关系,有助于监管当局制定合适的监管工具,有效管理银行业的系统性风险.中国未曾爆发过真正意义的银行业危机,因而研究影响银行业系统性风险的因素成为难题.在借鉴风险二维定义属性基础上,本文对商业银行偿付能力风险和流动性风险如何影响银行业稳定进行了实证分析.分析结果表明,当商业银行偿付能力上升时,银行风险承担会上升,进而增加银行倒闭的预期损失;商业银行流动性风险的上升也会增加银行倒闭的预期损失;商业银行偿付能力提高时,流动性风险会降低;商业银行流动性风险上升时,偿付能力风险也上升.     

Risks Matrixes Risks Assessment Tools of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises： The Case of Latvia

The enterprises need to assess the risk dynamic of financial instability and its impact on small and medium-sized enterprises＇ development, because it is important for enterprises to extend commercial activity and to open a new structural subdivision. We have researched types of risks, their identification, classification, and assessment possibilities in activities of small and medium-sized enterprises. We have used our own algorithm of identification, classification, and assessment of enterprises＇ risks. The goal of this research is to study the economic and financial risks＇ impact on small and medium-sized enterprises＇ development in Latvia. For study purpose, we have carried out the questionnaire of representative small and medium-sized enterprises about the economic and financial risks＇ impact on enterprises＇ development in Latvia. We have created classification of Latvian services sectors＇ economic and financial risks in the period from 2011 to 2012. Those risks have been included in the questionnaire. The risks matrix is a quantitative assessment tool of risks. We have created Latvian service sector economic and financial risks matrix. We have arranged risks by their sizes of possible losses for enterprises. For each risk has been assessed its probability of realization. We have created Latvian accommodations （hotel） and food services technological process risks map. Several parts of the risk map （segments） make it possible to assess each type of the risk separately in its segment. Risks matrix can be used to choose enterprises＇ strategy of risk management. Enterprise＇s strategy of risk management is developed by analysing zones of risk level.     

Granular institutional investors and global market interdependence

We study the propagation of global investment risk across markets through the granular view of institutional investors. Applying the conditional value-at-risk estimation to micro-level weekly observations of international mutual funds between 2003 and 2011, we find that idiosyncratic shocks to large institutional investors explain both aggregate market risk and cross-market risk interdependence. Conditional on the US capital markets being in financial distress, idiosyncratic shocks to the top 10% largest funds investing in the US explain about 40% of the risk fluctuations in other non-US markets. The findings are also economically and statistically significant for the top largest funds investing in non-US markets, with the effects becoming especially large during the global financial crisis of 2007–09. These results are robust after controlling for common risk factors and applying alternative measures of idiosyncratic shocks.     

How to deal with dissent among experts. Risk evaluation of EMF in a scientific dialogue

This article describes the results of a scientific discourse which aimed at exploring the reasons for differences in expert health risk assessment of radio frequency electromagnetic fields of mobile telephony.

It starts with describing the structure of the discourse. Then, the reasons for the conflicting risk assessments are discussed. Differences are due to the selection and evaluation of relevant scientific studies by applying different scientific quality standards, to the methods used for generating a research synthesis and an overall risk evaluation. Consensus could be achieved regarding the selection of and the quality requirements for the scientific studies used for risk assessment as well as their significance for risk evaluation. However, dissent remained about the synthesis of scientific evidence into an overall risk evaluation and about the relevance of the precautionary principle for risk evaluation and its implications for the risk assessment framework.

Based on the analysis of these problems, a transparent, consistent and rational procedure for risk assessment is suggested to facilitate a risk characterization which better meets the demands of policy making and the public for an appropriate risk evaluation.     

中小软件外包人力资本投资风险与控制策略研究

人力资本投资在服务外包总投资中占了最大比重,对软件外包企业来说更是如此.人力资本投资比重的增加给企业带来更大收益的同时也增加了企业的投资风险.目前,我国中小规模软件外包企业员工流动率高达20％,是社会平均流动率的两倍,形势严峻.本文力图突破传统的共性分析层面,从中小软件外包特性分析出发,探讨其人力资本投资风险的形成过程,并分别基于交易成本理论和期权理论提出控制人力资本投资风险的再外包和分阶段投资策略,为我国中小软件外包企业缓解高人力资本流失率,控制人力资本投资风险提供理论依据.     

中小非上市公司信用风险的评价研究——基于WEB与FAHP的视角

信用是人类社会最古老的词汇之一,而信用风险的管控是现代社会经济生活关注的核心问题之一。中小企业既是资本主义社会也是社会主义社会向前发展的源驱动力,中小企业的发展离不开现代信用体系的支撑。在文章中,中小企业按其信息的披露程度分为上市公司与非上市公司,相对于中小企业上市公司来说,由于交易的参与人信息不对称,中小非上市公司信用风险评估是交易双方以及各类金融机构最关心和最难解决的难题之一。在现代信息网络技术普遍化的背景下,利用人工以及机器搜索策略,充分挖掘中小非上市公司信息风险元和分类整理,并在此基础之上进行模糊综合评估,最后通过算例说明基于WEB对中小非上市公司信用风险的模糊综合评价的方法行之有效。