电力企业合同的法律风险与控制策略

供用电合同的签订与使用,在给电力企业带来极大好处的同时,由于合同的拟定、审核、签订、履行、管理、纠纷处理等众多环节上还存着许多问题与不足之处,也给企业带来了诸多法律风险。为此,电力企业应采取相应防范措施,规避电力市场潜在的风险,更好地维护供电企业合法权益。     

The Effect of the Alternation in the Ruling Party on Three-Factor Risks and Returns in ETF: The Case of Presidential Elections in Taiwan

This study discusses the effect of alternation in the ruling party in presidential elections on three-factor risks and returns of the three main exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Taiwan, which has an unclearly defined international status and whose citizens have the right to vote directly for the president. We find that after the ruling party has been determined, in the period between Election Day and inauguration day, both the stock market and ETFs show a slight rise in prices. This suggests that most investors are initially optimistic after the election results have been announced. Meanwhile, the reverse book-to-market risk value deteriorates significantly. These results indicate that political uncertainty increases the risk premium of market factors and reverse book-to-market factors for some ETFs.     

新型城镇化建设政府融资风险的防范——以辽宁省为例

新型城镇化推进可以促进区域经济的快速发展,但需要政府给予大量的资金支持。在传统融资模式可能带来较大融资风险的情况下,文章系统分析了融资风险的种类、融资风险的传导机制,进而以辽宁省为例,建议从项目入手,从风险自留、风险转换、风险转移和风险控制角度,防范政府融资风险,促进新型城镇化建设顺利推进。     

Deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat: an example of weighing the pros and cons of food stuffs

A Committee of the Health Council of the Netherlands advised on deoxynivalenol (DON), a mycotoxin occurring in cereals. TDIs of 1.0 and 0.5?µg.kg_{body weight} ^?1.day^?1 have been based on mice and pig studies in which DON reduced growth. In 1999, the 50^th and 95^th percentiles of DON intake by 1‐4‐year‐old children were, respectively, 1.3 and 2.4?µg.kg_{body weight} ^?1.day^?1. The Committee considered: (i) TDI contains safety factors, (ii) a slightly reduced weight gain is not necessarily harmful, (iii) when growth rate is highest, children consume little or no wheat, and (iv) in real life, exposure varies, causing the effect to be smaller. The Committee concluded that an exposure that only incidentally exceeds—up to about five times—0.5?µg.kg_{body weight} ^?1.day^?1 very unlikely inhibits weight gain. More severe effects on immunity, fertility and the foetus may occur at intakes higher than 2.5µg.kg_{body weight} ^?1.day^?1. Nonetheless, toxin exposure should be kept as low as possible. The Committee advised to agriculturally reduce DON content; second one may exclude wheat with high DON content for human consumption. Limits of 500 and 100?µg/kg_wheat prevent exposure exceeding 1.5 and 0.5?µg.kg_{body weight} ^?1.day^?1, respectively. As wheat products are good sources of nutrients, the Committee advised against discouraging their consumption.     

Can banks default overnight? Modelling endogenous contagion on the O/N interbank market

We propose a new model of the liquidity-driven banking system focusing on overnight interbank loans. This significant branch of the interbank market is commonly neglected in the banking system modelling and systemic risk analysis. We construct a model where banks are allowed to use both the interbank and the securities markets to manage their liquidity demand and supply as driven by prudential requirements in a volatile environment. The network of interbank loans is dynamic and simulated every day. We show how the intrasystem cash fluctuations alone, without any external shocks, may lead to systemic defaults, and what may be a symptom of the self-organized criticality of the system. We also analyze the impact of different prudential regulations and market conditions on the interbank market resilience. We confirm that the central bank’s asset purchase programmes, limiting the declines in government bond prices, can successfully stabilize banks’ liquidity demands. The model can be used to analyze the interbank market impact of macroprudential tools.     

Litteraturanmeldelse

This article examines the notion of distortion of copulas, a natural extension of distortion within the univariate framework. We study three approaches to this extension: (1) distortion of the margins alone while keeping the original copula structure; (2) distortion of the margins while simultaneously altering the copula structure; and (3) synchronized distortion of the copula and its margins. When applying distortion within the multivariate framework, it is important to preserve the properties of a copula function. For the first two approaches, this is a rather straightforward result; however, for the third approach, the proof has been exquisitely constructed in Morillas (2005). These three approaches unify the different types of multivariate distortion that have scarcely scattered in the literature. Our contribution in this paper is to further consider this unifying framework: we give numerous examples to illustrate and we examine their properties particularly with some aspects of ordering multivariate risks. The extension of multivariate distortion can be practically implemented in risk management where there is a need to perform aggregation and attribution of portfolios of correlated risks. Furthermore, ancillary to the results discussed in this article, we are able to generalize the formula developed by Genest &; Rivest (2001) for computing the distribution of the probability integral transformation of a random vector and extend it to the case within the distortion framework. For purposes of illustration, we applied the distortion concept to value excess of loss reinsurance for an insurance policy where the loss amount could vary by type of loss.     

Why persistent high inflation impedes growth? An empirical assessment of threshold level of inflation for India

In the policy debate on growth–inflation trade-off and the role of monetary policy in managing the trade-off in the short-run, theoretical and empirical research suggests the presence of a country specific threshold level of inflation. Empirical findings of this paper suggest that for India the threshold level of inflation could be around 6%. The inflation target for monetary policy may have to be somewhat lower than the growth maximizing threshold, since any positive inflation could be a risk to inclusive and sustainable growth objective.     

基于战略地图的战略执行风险控制研究——一个整合的模型框架

市场环境的加速变化使企业面临的竞争压力不断增加。只有降低战略执行风险,才能实现企业的战略目标,获得长久的竞争能力。本文在分析战略执行风险产生的原因和战略风险控制工具利弊的基础上,提出了基于战略地图的战略执行风险控制整合框架,将战略地图、平衡计分卡、预算管理等管理工具集成于战略执行管理过程,实现功能互补,提高战略执行力,降低战略的执行风险,确保战略目标的实现。     

Asset allocation in markets with contagion: The interplay between volatilities,jump intensities,and correlations

We study the impact of financial contagion on the dynamic asset allocation problem of a CRRA investor facing an incomplete market with two risky assets. We apply a Markov chain regime-switching framework with state-dependent jump intensities, diffusion volatilities and diffusion correlations. The key model feature that a switch to the bad contagion regime is triggered by a loss in one of the risky assets allows for the implementation of a hedging demand against contagion risk. Moreover, a state-dependent diffusion correlation combined with heterogeneity in jump intensities and volatilities can, e.g., generate a flight to quality effect upon a systemic jump.     

浅谈会计电算化软件的安全性

企业单位会计电算化软件应用,加快了会计信息处理的速度,提高了会计信息处理的质量,同时也增加了企业会计信息的风险。因此必须高度重视会计电算化软件存在的主要安全隐患,加强对会计电算化软件安全防范,从而使会计电算化软件安全、高效运行,为企业带来更大的经济效益。