国内外企业技术创新策略的博弈分析

入世后我国企业面临着国外企业日益加强的竞争压力，技术创新成为企业的重要选择。本文从技术创新成本的角度，建立了国内企业与国外企业技术创新竞争的静态博弈模型，根据模型，当国外企业以规模扩张为竞争目标时，我国企业只能选择渐进式的技术创新战略。     

Forecasting economic time series with unconditional time-varying variance

The classical forecasting theory of stationary time series exploits the second-order structure (variance, autocovariance, and spectral density) of an observed process in order to construct some prediction intervals. However, some economic time series show a time-varying unconditional second-order structure. This article focuses on a simple and meaningful model allowing this nonstationary behaviour. We show that this model satisfactorily explains the nonstationary behaviour of several economic data sets, among which are the U.S. stock returns and exchange rates. The question of how to forecast these processes is addressed and evaluated on the data sets.     

要素投入、技术进步与经济增长

运用误差校正模型方法,估计了中国1952～1998年期间扩展的索洛模型和内生技术进步经济增长模型,比较分析了各种投入要素以及技术进步对经济增长的作用.     

信贷技术、银行业竞争与中小企业融资

不同的银行信贷技术对中小企业具有不同的影响,银行业的逐渐开放,竞争的日益激烈,银行间并购逐年增加,银行业竞争结构的变化严重影响着中小企业融资。随着中国经济与世界经济接轨程度的加大,《新巴塞尔协议》的逐步推行,将不同程度影响银行业竞争结构及中小企业的信贷供给。因此,在制定相关政策时,要充分考虑金融政策的传导机制,不仅考虑其对金融体系及金融中介竞争结构的影响,而且还要考虑到对中小企业融资的间接影响。     

适应需求的技术才能最终驱动市场--浅论技术与市场的关系

本文从移动短信业务的蓬勃发展和铱星的"陨落"这正反两方面入手,有针对性地分析了技术与市场的关系,指出了只有适应需求的技术才能最终驱动市场.同时,就如何以市场观念正确认识和把握第三代移动通信(3G)的发展提出了建设性意见.     

浅析多媒体技术在车辆工程教学中的应用

随着教育的发展 ,传统的教学方法已不能满足时代的需要 ,亟待运用现代教育技术手段 ,特别是多媒体的教学形式进入课堂 ,以发挥其特有的功能来提高学习效率。本文浅淡了如何在车辆工程教学中运用计算机多媒体的图、文、声、像并茂的特点 ,有效的激发学生的学习兴趣。     

Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs

Large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility are increasingly used in empirical macroeconomics. The key to making these highly parameterized VARs useful is the use of shrinkage priors. We develop a family of priors that captures the best features of two prominent classes of shrinkage priors: adaptive hierarchical priors and Minnesota priors. Like adaptive hierarchical priors, these new priors ensure that only ‘small’ coefficients are strongly shrunk to zero, while ‘large’ coefficients remain intact. At the same time, these new priors can also incorporate many useful features of the Minnesota priors such as cross-variable shrinkage and shrinking coefficients on higher lags more aggressively. We introduce a fast posterior sampler to estimate BVARs with this family of priors—for a BVAR with 25 variables and 4 lags, obtaining 10,000 posterior draws takes about 3 min on a standard desktop computer. In a forecasting exercise, we show that these new priors outperform both adaptive hierarchical priors and Minnesota priors.     

Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation

Recent terrorist acts, in particular the 9-11 attacks in 2001, have created disruptions in the global economy. The short-term impact had been felt in the global tourism, airline industries, as well as the financial markets. While the global economy has recovered and is adjusting to the new global realities, the longer-term impact of heightened security risk across the world can be felt in the form of higher risk premiums in asset markets, as well as a shift of resources towards dealing with terrorism. Just as World War II had accelerated the development of nuclear energy as well as a major contributing factor in the genesis of Silicon Valley, the current war against terrorism will affect both the pace and trajectory of technology trends, as efforts are focused on developing technologies to combat terrorism. In this paper, we review the effects of the current war on terrorism in terms of its impact on the economy, the allocation of resources to R&D, and the trajectory of future R&D.     

The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

基于DEMATEL方法的新兴技术产业化融资影响因素实证研究

新兴技术是提高国家产业竞争力的重要载体，但是资金问题一直是制约我国新兴技术产业化的瓶颈之一。构建新兴技术产业化融资影响因素理论模型，运用DEMATEL方法，实证检验不同因素对新兴技术产业化融资的影响程度。研究表明：融资扶持政策、资金渠道可选择性、共享信息有效性等因素对新兴技术产业化融资具有显著直接影响；资金供求匹配性、融资产品创新、信息共享方式等因素易受到其它微观因素影响，对产业化融资具有显著间接影响；担保费用、配套服务综合性及配套服务专业性等因素对产业化融资同时具有显著的直接与间接影响。据此，提出新兴技术产业化融资对策建议。